The Orioles ran out the identical three outfielders every Opening Day between 2021 and ’24: Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander, and Austin Hays. And in annually from 2020-23, Mullins, Santander, and Hays have been Baltimore’s three major outfielders. This previous season, nonetheless, Colton Cowser broke out with an exceptional rookie marketing campaign, cementing his place within the outfield at Camden Yards for years to return. Dealing with a logjam within the lineup, the Orioles dealt Hays to the Phillies forward of the commerce deadline, formally splitting up the Mullins/Santander/Hays triumvirate. Santander may very well be subsequent to go away; after the conclusion of the World Collection, he’ll turn into a free agent. Thus, for the primary time in a very long time, the Orioles’ outfield might look fairly totally different on Opening Day 2025.
There is no such thing as a doubt that Cowser may have a job within the Orioles’ outfield subsequent season. Not solely did he hit 24 residence runs with a 120 wRC+ in 2024, however he did so whereas taking part in sturdy protection. The 24-year-old compiled 11 OAA and three DRS over 809 2/3 innings in left discipline, 310 innings in heart, and 73 innings in proper. He made only one error all 12 months. Cowser is underneath workforce management by a minimum of the 2029 season, and he won’t be eligible for arbitration till a minimum of 2027.
Mullins must be a lock for the 2025 outfield as effectively, though the Orioles must tender him a contract as he enters his remaining 12 months of arbitration eligibility. Matt Swartz’s mannequin estimates Mullins would earn roughly $8.7MM subsequent 12 months, a $2.375MM elevate from his $6.325MM wage this season. That’s a discount for a participant like Mullins, even along with his 2021 All-Star marketing campaign getting smaller and smaller within the rearview mirror. He has been roughly league-average on the plate over the previous two seasons (102 wRC+) whereas offering loads of worth on the bases (51-for-60 in stolen base makes an attempt) and taking part in a premium defensive place. Completely different metrics disagree about his skills in heart discipline, however in the end, the variations of WAR at each FanGraphs and Baseball Reference agree he has been a useful contributor. From 2023-24, Mullins compiled 4.2 fWAR and 5.3 bWAR. There’s an opportunity the Orioles would contemplate shifting Mullins to a nook and giving Cowser the middle discipline job; together with faculty and the minors, Cowser has extra expertise in heart discipline than some other place. Mullins and his league-average bat could be much less useful in a nook spot, however a $8.7MM wage would nonetheless be a team-friendly worth for his providers.
As for the ultimate spot within the outfield, loads of followers would like to see Santander again subsequent season (and for a number of extra to return), but it surely’s unclear how intently the Orioles will pursue the All-Star slugger in free company. They’ll certainly make him the qualifying provide, and he simply as will certainly decline. He’s possible in search of a multi-year deal price a minimum of $20MM per season. Normal supervisor Mile Elias is hoping to extend payroll this winter in his first full offseason working underneath new proprietor David Rubenstein, but it surely’s unclear how a lot cash he’ll should work with. Extra to the purpose, Elias would possibly prfer to spend nearly all of his sources bettering a pitching employees that completed 14th in MLB in ERA and tenth in FanGraphs WAR moderately than an offense that completed fourth in runs scored and third in wRC+. Santander shall be an enormous loss for the offense, however ace Corbin Burnes, one other impending free agent, shall be a fair larger departure for Elias to handle. With all that mentioned, the Orioles would possibly stick to their inner choices to interchange Santander in 2025.
Baltimore would love for 25-year-old Heston Kjerstad to step up and fill that position. The lefty batter put up ludicrous numbers within the minors this previous season, batting .300 with a .998 OPS and 152 wRC+ in 56 video games at Triple-A. His huge league numbers (.745 OPS, 116 wRC+ in 39 video games) weren’t unhealthy, particularly not for a rookie, however a few of the underlying metrics counsel he’s due for regression (.301 xwOBA in comparison with a .327 wOBA), and his 28.9% strikeout fee was concerningly excessive for a hitter who wasn’t displaying off plus energy or plate self-discipline. Furthermore, his outfield protection wasn’t significantly spectacular in a small pattern measurement (-1 DRS, -1 FRV). Kjerstad has the instruments to be a terrific participant, however he’ll to take a step ahead on the plate if he’s going to supply above-average worth as a defensively-limited nook outfielder.
One other choice to play some nook outfield for the Orioles subsequent 12 months may very well be Coby Mayo, who’s presently the workforce’s prime prospect in response to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline. All through his transient skilled profession, Mayo has principally performed third base. Except for his sturdy arm, nonetheless, he has by no means graded out as a top-notch defender on the sizzling nook. So, with Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg already entrenched within the Orioles’ infield and Jackson Holliday not going anyplace, Mayo’s future would possibly must be elsewhere. He has expertise taking part in first base as effectively, and that may very well be his long-term place. However contemplating his terrific throwing arm, it is sensible that he would give the outfield a strive. To that time, Elias not too long ago steered proper discipline may very well be an possibility for the 22-year-old, although he made it clear the group nonetheless views him as an infielder, and primarily a primary baseman, going ahead (per
Two extra inner choices to bear in mind are prospects Dylan Beavers and Enrique Bradfield Jr. Beavers, 23, is the workforce’s No. 5 prospect in response to FanGraphs, No. 6 in response to MLB Pipeline, and No. 7 in response to Baseball America. He hit effectively sufficient at Double-A in 2024 (15 HR, 118 wRC+ in 119 video games) to earn a quick promotion to Triple-A on the finish of the season. He’s additionally a plus runner with the potential to be a succesful huge league heart fielder. Bradfield, 22, is a couple of months youthful and somewhat additional away from the majors; he moved up from Excessive-A to Double-A this previous August. Nevertheless, most sources agree he’s the marginally extra promising prospect. FanGraphs and MLB Pipeline have him at No. 4, whereas Baseball America has him at No. 6. He boasts 80-grade pace and has the abilities to be an elite defensive heart fielder. As for his bat, he has little energy to talk of, so he’ll have to show he can keep his spectacular bat-to-ball expertise in opposition to harder competitors. Neither Beavers nor Bradfield wants safety from the Rule 5 draft this offseason, and neither is a possible candidate to make the Opening Day roster out of camp. Nevertheless, their relative proximity to the majors may very well be a motive why the Orioles keep away from signing a free agent outfielder to a multi-year deal.
Lastly, the Orioles must determine whether or not or to not choose up Ryan O’Hearn’s $8MM membership possibility for 2025. O’Hearn is primarily a primary baseman and DH, however he performed 27 video games within the outfield final season. The 31-year-old slashed .264/.334/.427 with 15 residence runs and a 119 wRC+ in 2024, good for 1.7 fWAR. If he can repeat that efficiency subsequent season, an $8MM wage could be greater than truthful, however with Kjerstad and Mayo in want of taking part in time, the Orioles would possibly want to spend that $8MM elsewhere.
Picture courtesy of USA Immediately Sports activities.
