They don’t make pitchers like they used to. We knew that, however the typical ideas in regards to the fashionable pitcher revolve round utilizing pitch design and velocity to rack up strikeouts recklessly. The proliferation of pitching data reaches all types of pitchers, however we see new-age command pitchers showing in methods we are able to’t comprehend. That begins with George Kirby, who has traditionally low stroll charges and is able to hitting 99 mph, which breaks nearly each logical understanding of pitchers.
Twins rookie Zebby Matthews is attractive in his personal approach. The 24-year-old struggled in his style of the large leagues final yr however brings an thrilling mixture of strikeouts and elite command.
Earlier than posting a 6.2% stroll charge in his 37 MLB innings on the finish of 2024, Matthews’ highest stroll charge at any degree was simply 3.6%. By an honest margin, his 1.9% stroll charge within the minors final yr was the bottom of any pitcher (min. 70 innings). His minuscule stroll charge was paired with a 30% strikeout charge, giving Matthews a gaudy 28.6% strikeout-minus-walk charge throughout three ranges. Whereas 2024’s minor league stats have been worthy of hype when he bought the decision in August, the outcomes regarded like a very overmatched pitcher.
Matthews had an uncharacteristic 6.69 ERA and 1.65 WHIP within the majors final yr, which just about actually bumped him out of the opening day rotation for this yr. Nevertheless, he’s teased thrilling enhancements within the spring to this point, and having main league expertise underneath his belt is perhaps helpful in the long term.
The Arsenal
Matthews has 5 pitches: a fastball, cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup. He deploys all 5 to left-handed batters and simply three to right-handed batters. The usage of all 5 pitches to left-handed batters
His fastball sits within the mid-90s with a barely above-average trip and run for his arm angle, and he locates it armside to all hitters. The pitch bought hit fairly arduous final yr, nevertheless it had a 70% fly-ball charge and a 25.0% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio, which is able to regress to typical charges. On the self-discipline facet, his fastball yielded a 26.1% CSW, an underwhelming determine that reveals that hitters have been on prime of it.
His subsequent most used pitch, the slider, is Matthews’ bread and butter. It’s a gyro slider at 87.2 mph, which he primarily makes use of in two-strike counts and is his whiff pitch. Its 23.5% putaway charge is one of the best in his arsenal and within the eightieth percentile amongst sliders.
With its verticality, Matthews can throw the slider to all hitters and get whiffs. It has an absurd 25.0% swinging-strike in opposition to righties and a strong 16.0% in opposition to lefties. Matthews throws the slider within the zone solely 29.3% to right-handed hitters, whereas it’s practically 50% in opposition to left-handed hitters.
Hitters are usually not fooled after they get the slider within the zone. It has a horrendous Supreme Contact Price, nevertheless it’s a promising pitch nonetheless.
Matthews throws a bridge cutter between the fastball and slider, which successfully limits righties however hasn’t neutralized lefties but. The cutter has a 56.5% Str-ICR, which is exactly what to search for in a pitch that suppresses contact. Although it hasn’t carried out effectively in opposition to lefties total, it has labored when positioned up-and-in; this tunnels effectively together with his fastball away.
As for his two different choices to lefties, the changeup is clearly a piece in progress. The pitch has a 20.0% zone charge and a 29.1% hiLoc%, proving that the command of the pitch was not there. It was to this point out of the zone that hitters by no means swung on the pitch as they didn’t see it as aggressive. The curveball had an identical downside however graded out extra favorably in stuff fashions. Matthews stored the curveball within the zone too often and noticed related high-and-away misses slightly than burying the curveball within the dust. This resulted in important arduous contact and massively underwhelmed in whiffs.
What Went Incorrect
Matthews was one of many quickest risers in baseball final yr, ascending from Excessive-A to the bigs. This can be a steep adjustment within the high quality of opposing hitters, and Matthews confronted increasingly more hitters that he couldn’t merely overpower.
One of many few publicly obtainable superior stats throughout all minor leagues is strike share, which could be very helpful in analyzing a command-focused pitcher.
The 70% threshold is the higher restrict for MLB arms, with just one starter eclipsing a 70% strike charge final yr (Bryan Woo). Matthews may throw his pitches within the zone extra often within the minors, and it was MLB-caliber stuff that the minor league opposition wasn’t touching. His skill to dominate within the zone inflated his strikeout totals and sure deflated his stroll charge too.
By the point he bought to the majors, Matthews needed to nitpick extra in location and pitch choice. Matthews wasn’t prepared to take care of his command whereas the stuff lagged what he wished to do. There have been some blowup video games (9 earned runs vs. TOR, 6 earned runs vs. BAL) when Matthews positioned his fastball poorly, and he didn’t have faith in his secondaries to get whiffs or suppress contact like he had all through the minors.
The surface-level stats look horrid, however that’s additionally what occurs when there’s a 9 earned run recreation in a 37-inning pattern. He can in all probability ask teammate Bailey Ober how having an identical one-game stain on his ERA felt.
What’s Thrilling About 2025
Matthews comes into 2025 with the unhealthy main league expertise already encountered, giving him an offseason to formulate new plans on attacking hitters since he’s already seen the worst of the worst.
He bought trounced by homers final yr: Matthews ended the season with a 2.63 HR/9 (1st percentile). That seemingly won’t stick, as he didn’t have a house run downside within the minors. Regardless of the struggles, Matthews additionally exhibited a handful of fine begins, proving he can succeed. He gave up two earned runs or much less in six of his 9 begins, although he did not get by the fifth inning in three of them.
His begin in opposition to the Cardinals exhibited what we need to see: 5 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 0 walks, and seven strikeouts.
He executed on fastballs up-and-armside, cutters up-and-gloveside, and sliders down-and-gloveside. He didn’t flip to the curveball and changeup sufficient, however this was arguably his greatest begin of the yr.
Regardless of the poor run prevention, Matthews posted a 24.3% strikeout charge and 6.2% stroll charge, each higher than league common. If Matthews can keep away from the true coronary heart of the zone, I imagine he can suppress arduous contact and emerge as an thrilling younger pitcher. Even most projection programs imagine in his stroll charge regressing to a 5% vary, however he can go even additional.
Matthews has dazzled in his spring begins this yr. His velocity is up, and his pitch shapes have modified barely, so we’re doubtlessly getting an early glimpse of a model of Matthews that’s adjusting to huge league hitters.
Whereas we should take velocity good points with a grain of salt (although thrilling), the form adjustments will be important. His whole arsenal has shifted extra in the direction of his armside, together with his essential three pitches (FB, FC, and SL) all seeing 3.6+” of armside motion good points. His fastball now has considerably extra run than common for his arm slot, coming in with a lot better HAVAA (it was 0.9° in 2024). The cutter now has much less horizontal depth, whereas the slider turns into a real gyro slider, which may also help cope with lefties. The changeup can also be nearer to the fastball in horizontal motion, which may also help deception between the 2 pitches.
He received’t instantly have a beginning gig: Chris Paddack and Simeon Woods-Richardson are forward of him behind the Twins rotation. He does present extra upside than both of these arms, and all it takes is one damage or a poor April for Matthews to be again on the proving floor for a group combating within the AL Central. If Matthews begins to indicate his true self on the huge league degree, a basic command pitcher is able to take the league by storm.
