Who Are the Most Underrated Free Agents This Offseason?

All through your entire 2024 MLB season, we noticed a plethora of impact-free brokers signed for comparatively low cost, hoisting minimal expectations and contributing effectively past what their pay grade would suggest. Luke Weaver, a playoff hero and consensus top-end nearer for the American League champion Yankees, was signed for a measly $2M final offseason. Jurickson Profar, a late offseason signing for the Padres, posted a 139 wRC+ and a 4.3 fWAR en path to his first profession all-star sport nod. Jesse Winker and Michael Lorenzen, each signing for south of $5M, managed to internet potential affect prospect capital for the Nationals and Rangers respectively. With such a loaded free agent class hitting the open market going into the offseason, it’s troublesome to not be enamored with the highest abilities in search of new contracts, although the annual cut price bin market shouldn’t be undermined, particularly this yr. 

Turnbull is a really troublesome free company case to guage. He was extremely efficient as a starter, although between Philadelphia’s pitching depth and a season-ending lat pressure, he was prevented from making sufficient of a case to receives a commission affect starter cash this offseason. Turnbull’s largest power occurs to be the depth of his repertoire, throwing 6 totally different pitches >5% of the time. His minimize fastball is a platoon-neutral providing, he can mitigate success in opposition to either side together with his sweeper and changeup, each stable choices, and the curveball was as shut because it will get to unhittable. Turnbull made it abundantly clear that he has each the traits and pitch skill to be a starter going ahead, although it stays to be seen if a crew can pay him cash for that sort of function. Turnbull’s free company may be very reminiscent to that of Nick Martinez, a starter turned reliever who was finally transformed again right into a starter upon signing with the Reds, who landed a 2-year, $26M deal, with a participant choice for the second yr. Ought to Turnbull settle for the same contract, he could be given the chance to show each his well being and sustainability as a succesful middle-of-the-rotation arm. Assuming he departs from Philadelphia, he’ll probably be given a full-time starter function, bolstering his worth trying towards 2026. 

There will not be a pitcher in baseball extra negatively impacted by poor ballpark circumstances than Sims, who shows elite stuff yr after yr. Sims tends to raise the fastball, an simply above-average pitch would possibly I add, to a level typically unseen by pitchers trapped throughout the confines of Nice American Ballpark, which was detrimental to his outcomes, and has been for his entire Reds profession. Protecting the pitch up within the zone labored fairly effectively for Sims when you have a look at absolutely anything aside from run allowance. It generated a viable xWOBACON when in comparison with the common fastball, it generated chases at an above-average price, and it racked up whiffs at nearly a mean stage. The difficulty falls on the scale of Nice American Ballpark, one of the hitter-friendly places in fashionable baseball. Sims posted a 54.5% fly ball price in 2024, the third-highest mark in baseball amongst certified relievers. Not sometimes one thing a pitcher needs, however for a closely N-S pitcher it’s anticipated. Escaping from Cincinnati and Boston, two stadiums residing high 4 in ballpark issue, will do wonders for his outcomes. A forward-thinking crew ought to see the arsenal, headlined by top-of-the-line sweepers in baseball, and splurge on this profile for effectively beneath what he’s price. As for Sims, a one-year cope with an adept ballclub in a much less dangerous pitching atmosphere ought to be seen as a chance to construct up his worth and hit the market once more subsequent offseason. 

Michael Conforto is an apparent sufferer of the outrageous ballpark dimensions Oracle Park gives, particularly as a left-handed hitter. Regardless of the troublesome atmosphere, Conforto nonetheless carried out effectively in a comparatively acceptable pattern, posting a 112 wRC+ and a .327 wOBA in 488 PAs, although the information suggests this might simply be the tip of the iceberg for the previous all-star. Conforto’s xWOBA-wOBA differential was a whopping -0.058, one of many largest within the sport. Giants bats have a tendency to constantly carry out beneath their capabilities because of the ballpark’s obscure and atypical dimensions all through the outfield, with almost their complete each day lineup displaying xWOBAs beneath their precise end result counterpart. Offensively, there actually isn’t a obvious flaw in Conforto’s sport. His exit velocities are high of the road, and he’s usually optimizing his exhausting contact with correct launch angles, posting a close to 12% barrel price. He’s not chasing at a really excessive price, and thus he’s strolling at a good 8.6% clip. The hit software isn’t something to like, although it’s removed from detrimental. In a market the place impact-free brokers are inclined to land large, prolonged offers with outrageous common annual values, Conforto shouldn’t command as a lot as he’s price. Touchdown a really well-rounded bat with the upside displayed by the lefty may very well be the lacking piece wanted for some penny-pinching World Collection hopefuls. 

Max Kepler is one more odd free company case to guage. He’s proven flashes of greatness, particularly in 2023 when he posted a 123 wRC+ and a 2.8 fWAR in 130 video games, his first actual wholesome pattern dimension since 2019. 2024 was a catastrophe, nevertheless, as Kepler couldn’t discover that offensive stride harking back to the season prior, with accidents plaguing one more yr for the German native. Kepler missed time with a knee contusion in early April, earlier than being positioned on the season-ending injured checklist with left patellar tendinitis in September. Lacking very important time early within the season restricted Kepler’s skill to catch warmth for a Twins crew desperately needing his presence, as he put up a measly 94 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR in simply 105 video games, an apparent regression. Even in an off-year, we nonetheless noticed Kepler bang out the very best max exit velocity of his profession at 115.4 MPH, twenty third in baseball final season. He’s evidently nonetheless able to posting plus outcomes. Whereas Kepler’s general bat-to-ball skill regressed marginally from his peak 2023 efficiency, he continued to profit from his contact to the tune of a 37.4% LA SweetSpot price, considerably above the league common. There’s a ton of volatility within the efficiency Kepler can ship in 2025, however we’ve seen zero consistency all through his complete profession, and the final two seasons are a primary instance of absolutely the duality a participant of this demographic can have, however the upside Kepler brings to the desk is sufficient to utterly revitalize a lineup in want of a robust lefty bat.