The second White Sox rebuild of the previous decade has stripped the roster of almost all its notable veterans, however middle fielder Luis Robert Jr. stands as a holdover from the crew’s transient two-year run as a playoff membership and a still-prominent commerce candidate. Had Robert loved a wholesome 2024 marketing campaign he’d possible already be gone, as a result of at his greatest (e.g. 2023), he’s confirmed to be a five-tool, MVP-caliber expertise. Staying on the sector, nonetheless, has been problematic.
Robert performed solely 100 video games in 2024 and didn’t appear to be at full power for a lot of that point. His .224/.278/.379 slash was the worst manufacturing of his profession. That’s made it powerful for the White Sox to discover a center floor in commerce conversations. Promoting low on such a gifted participant when he’s signed via 2027 — $15MM in 2025, plus a pair of $20MM membership choices for 2026-27 — can be a serious missed alternative if Robert is ready to bounce again with a wholesome season.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reviews this morning that these hurdles impacted commerce talks with each the Giants earlier within the offseason and, rather more not too long ago, with the Reds. Cincinnati and Chicago have been discussing Robert as not too long ago as final week and this previous weekend, per Rosenthal, with infield prospect Edwin Arroyo among the many names who might doubtlessly return to the Sox. Past the issue of agreeing on which prospects can be concerned, the 2 events didn’t see eye to eye on how a lot cash the White Sox ought to embody to cowl a few of the $17MM nonetheless assured to Robert. (There’s additionally a $2MM buyout on his 2026 membership possibility.) At this level, the Sox aren’t prone to commerce Robert previous to spring coaching, per the report.
Till not too long ago, it appeared as if the Reds had exhausted the bulk — if not the whole thing — of their 2025 payroll funds. A late settlement with Foremost Road Sports activities/FanDuel Sports activities Community for his or her 2025 tv broadcasts supplied an surprising bump to president of baseball Nick Krall’s funds for the upcoming season, nonetheless. That produced renewed talks with reliever Carlos Estevez — who finally agreed to signal with the Royals as an alternative — and sure facilitated the signing of Austin Hays (one yr, $5MM) and yesterday’s acquisition of Taylor Rogers, whom the Reds can pay $6MM subsequent yr. (The Giants are overlaying the opposite $6MM of his 2025 wage.)
That’s $11MM in new payroll added by the Reds (a web $9.5MM over two league-minimum gamers) since that late TV deal was brokered. Robert alone is assured greater than that; even when the White Sox had been prepared to kick in $6MM to deliver the value right down to the identical $11MM the Reds wound up spending this previous week, that may’ve solely addressed one spot on the roster. Cincinnati would nonetheless be searching for extra bullpen assist and presumably doing so with at a a lot decrease charge than the $6MM they’ll find yourself paying to Rogers.
Whereas Arroyo is simply one of many names the 2 events mentioned, it’s price noting that like Robert, he’s a unstable participant who’s tough to judge at current. The 21-year-old center infielder was a second-round select of Puerto Rico by the Mariners again in 2021 and was one of many key prospects shipped to the Reds in 2022’s Luis Castillo blockbuster. He ranked among the many sport’s top-100 prospects in every of the previous two offseasons however suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder final spring. That harm required surgical procedure and worn out his whole 2024 marketing campaign.
Arroyo recovered in time to play in final yr’s Arizona Fall League however in 18 video games slashed simply .253/.309/.333. That’s not a large enough pattern to make a significant analysis, in fact, but it surely’s nonetheless a far cry from the 2022 manufacturing that helped catapult him onto the nationwide prospect radar; that season noticed Arroyo hit a mixed .293/.366/.480 as an 18-year-old primarily dealing with a lot older and extra skilled competitors in A-ball.
A commerce involving Robert might but come collectively, however the challenges encountered by each the Giants and the Reds of their efforts to pry him from Chicago will persist. The Sox don’t wish to take a middling return for a participant who might command a real prospect haul if wholesome. Any potential commerce associate might be reluctant to commerce its best expertise in trade for a participant who missed two months with a hip harm and was 16% worse than a mean hitter in 2024 — even when he popped 38 homers as not too long ago as 2023. The cash owed to Robert is a cut price if he’s wholesome, however that’s a serious if. Plus, many groups have spent the overwhelming majority of their offseason funds by this level on the calendar.
Again in late November, one rival common supervisor who’d spoken to the Sox about Robert reasonably plainly laid out the issue in understanding a commerce, telling USA At the moment’s Bob Nightengale on the time: “You’ve bought to hope he lastly stays wholesome and could be the participant everybody envisioned all alongside, however the White Sox are appearing like he’s some large star middle fielder and are asking on your prime prospects.”
The Sox weren’t in a completely dissimilar state of affairs with Dylan Stop a yr in the past presently. Stop, who had two seasons of membership management remaining then, had completed runner-up in 2022 American League Cy Younger voting earlier than a pedestrian 2023 marketing campaign by which he posted a 4.58 ERA with a one-mile drop in common fastball velocity and a corresponding dip in strikeout charge. He got here again with a vengeance in spring coaching with stuff that seemed dominant sufficient to generate a second act on his commerce market. The Padres wound up buying him on March 13.
It’s attainable an analogous state of affairs might play out with Robert. If he seems wholesome and dynamic early in Cactus League play, maybe there’ll be some renewed curiosity and diminished trepidation from groups cautious concerning the explosive outfielder’s well being.
If not in spring coaching, even just a few weeks of robust play early within the 2025 marketing campaign might pique the curiosity of different groups. That would create a state of affairs just like the one which noticed the Marlins commerce Luis Arraez (additionally to the Padres) early final Could. Miami’s catastrophic begin to the season successfully eradicated them from playoff competition simply weeks into the 2024 season. The ChiSox already know full nicely they gained’t contend in 2025. If Robert will get out to a torrid begin and appears just like the 2023 model of himself, placing him available on the market in late April or early Could would scale back the chance of an harm occurring within the months main as much as the commerce deadline whereas additionally giving a commerce associate an additional few months of manufacturing.
As MLBTR’s Anthony Franco identified final evening when discussing the Guardians’ challenges in buying a middle fielder, there merely haven’t been many — or actually, any — influence choices on the commerce or free agent markets on the place over the previous couple years. That applies not solely to the Guards but in addition to the Giants, Reds, Phillies and different golf equipment which have sought middle subject upgrades not too long ago. Golf equipment just like the Purple Sox, Mariners, Twins, Tigers, Royals, Pirates and Astros have additionally coveted right-handed bats and/or outfielders. Any might have curiosity in a revitalized Robert.
For now, the Sox’ focus might be on getting and conserving Robert as wholesome as attainable. If a robust spring or April displaying rekindles his commerce market, the previous curiosity from each San Francisco and Cincinnati might be price taking into account because the South Siders subject new affords.
