Final week, the Atlanta Braves lastly checked into the free agent scene, signing switch-hitting outfielder Jurickson Profar to a 3-year, $42M contract. Till that acquisition, the Braves had been just about radio-silent this winter, dropping contributors Max Fried, Travis d’Arnaud, and A.J. Minter to the open market after a making an attempt season that noticed lots of their core items cope with long-term accidents. They’re in search of big-time redemption in 2025. Profar might be anticipated to be a central determine in that mission, as he at the moment initiatives to hitch forces with Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuna Jr. within the outfield. The most effective variations of these gamers would simply give the Braves one of many premier outfield trios in baseball, however there’s rather a lot that makes Profar troublesome to foretell going into the season.
In a deep and costly class, Profar has a case to be essentially the most intriguing free agent signing of the offseason. He’s coming off a 2024 that noticed him set career-highs in hits, residence runs, and all throughout his triple-slash line. He additionally earned the primary all-star, silver slugger, and down-ballot MVP votes of his main league tenure. In fact, profession years should not unusual for gamers set to enter free company, however this one shouldn’t be with out asterisks. Stat-heads could do not forget that in 2023, Profar was the worst participant in baseball by the measure of Fangraphs WAR. How did he go from that to securing a top-15 end in NL MVP voting in only one season? The place does his true expertise degree lie in between these two seasons chalked stuffed with extremes? After many weeks of inactivity, had been the Braves proper to make this their first assertion transfer of the winter?
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Profar’s 2024
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When a hitter’s outcomes are taken into query, it’s normally due to suspect underlying metrics. That’s not what occurred with Profar this previous season, although. He did a whole lot of issues that had been robust to faux: He hit the ball onerous, was hardly ever overmatched within the strike zone, didn’t strike out, and walked rather a lot.
This offensive strategy finally produced a .280 hitter that hit 24 homers and was value 4.3 Fangraphs WAR regardless of some deficiencies within the subject. Profar was additionally situationally clutch, ending the season with 30 runs of worth added because of his hitting, in addition to a mark of 5.3 for Baseball Savant’s version of win chance added – each of which had been instrumental elements in getting him previous 80 RBIs for the primary time in his profession. His OPS exceeded .800 in opposition to each left and right-handed pitching, and for many of the season, the Padres deployed him in one of many first three spots of their batting order. He wasn’t a straightforward out – he may beat opponents with a run-scoring single simply as a lot as he may with a double or a house run, he didn’t typically swing at dangerous pitches, and he didn’t typically swing and miss on good ones.
As such, we are able to conclude with a good quantity of confidence that this efficiency wasn’t the results of some obtuse batted ball luck. Positive, Profar’s .302 BABIP was the very best mark of his profession, however a .302 BABIP isn’t a sufficiently big outlier to trigger reputable fear. His batted ball profile has all the time been fairly balanced between grounders, fly balls, and line drives – he was round league-average in all three of these charges in 2024 – and he isn’t a pace demon by any stretch, so with these substances, rather a lot must go proper for him to hit a lot larger than .300 on balls in play anyhow.
The truth is, the one factor that actually appears fishy at first look when Profar’s season-level efficiency is the truth that he led the Nationwide League in hit-by-pitches with 18. Some hitters are infamous for utilizing this methodology of getting on base to their benefit and crowding the plate to attempt to put themselves on for the man behind them, however Profar shouldn’t be a type of gamers. He has solely ever been hit greater than 10 occasions in a season as soon as, and that was all the best way again in 2018. Even if you happen to take away half of these league-leading beanballs from this 12 months, his shiny .380 on-base proportion would have been trimmed by about 15 factors. He has eye so it’s not just like the 100-point distinction between his common and his OBP is a complete phantasm, however there are wiser bets to make than Profar clearing a ~.350 on-base clip by that a lot once more.
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Profar Pre-2024
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Despite the fact that we’ve established there wasn’t a lot pretending about Profar’s excellent stroll 12 months, the very fact nonetheless stays that he had a reasonably depressing 2023. It was a thriller then, and the unprecedented success he noticed throughout his subsequent journey across the solar solely compounds that. After solidifying himself as San Diego’s on a regular basis left fielder in 2022 for the primary prolonged playoff run of his profession, Profar signed a one-year, $7.75M cope with the Colorado Rockies in the course of the next 12 months’s spring coaching with hopes of performing nicely on the hitter’s paradise that’s Coors Subject and securing a much bigger payday at season’s finish. The logic was sound – a short-term deal in a metropolis with an offense-heavy ballpark, and assured on a regular basis reps on a weaker staff. It didn’t, nevertheless, go in keeping with plan and he fell flat on his face, placing up the worst wRC+ (78) of his profession for a season during which he performed greater than 100 video games. The skinny, mile-high air did nothing to spice up his extra-base totals, and the Rockies even waived and launched him with a month left within the season. He was claimed again by the Padres and hit nicely in a 14-game stint there in September, nevertheless it bears repeating that it was not sufficient to flee the dreaded final place on the Fangraphs WAR leaderboard earlier than the tip of the 12 months.
The truth that Profar isn’t an asset defensively implies that if he doesn’t hit, he’s possible going to be costing his staff wins relative to any prototypical substitute, and whereas hitting is actually one thing he didn’t do in 2023, a deeper take a look at the underlying numbers reveals us that he most likely wasn’t 78-wRC+-level-bad.
There’s a typical theme within the graphic above. No, Profar wasn’t a free swinger and flailing at rubbish all 12 months. No, he wasn’t solely impatient as he was strolling at a price just below 10%, which isn’t dangerous by any stretch. He was even making contact on pitches within the zone and had a below-average variance of launch angles on the balls he put in play, that are two expertise that almost all main leaguers must hit for common as he would find yourself doing in 2024. What he did have was a season-long energy outage, to the purpose the place he was nonetheless a net-negative when swinging on pitches within the zone regardless of enough contact charges. There was a transparent goal for himself and the Padres hitting coaches going into final winter, and that was to get him to maximise each little bit of energy in that swing. The remainder of the seeds had been already planted; he was by no means fully misplaced up there. We all know now that he completed this (extra on how later).
Nonetheless, why was a 4-WAR outfielder set to enter his age-32 season with a multi-layered offensive strategy unable to safe greater than $50M on the open market? The reply lies within the age-old regulation of averages. Profar is a former high prospect who had one of many higher rebound seasons you’ll ever see from a significant league hitter, however he has by no means been in a position to put consecutive good seasons collectively on the MLB degree.
Irrespective of how good the underlying numbers had been, it’s not possible to bop round the truth that Profar, at age 31, did an entire bunch of issues this season that he had by no means carried out in his MLB profession. Profession years previous 30 are seldom indicative of future efficiency, and his impeccable year-on/year-off pattern doesn’t assist his case. It’s additionally not as if he’s constant inside seasons both, no matter how he’s enjoying. Since his energy stroke was the largest driving pressure behind his breakout season, we’ll use onerous hit price as a measuring follow additional convey simply how up-and-down he’s. Breaking it down by month, it turns into clear that sustaining excessive exit velocities has been a career-long problem that’s undoubtedly tied to the fluctuation in his outcomes. Particularly in 2021 and 2023 (which had been two below-average seasons for him with the bat), his onerous hit% line chart creates an uncanny “M” form, and even with the appreciable rise in 2024, it’s evident that he can’t fairly keep in a groove for too lengthy on the plate.
Even beneath the floor, you received’t discover many purple flags if you happen to solely take a look at 2024 to mission Profar’s short-term future. On the identical time, although, his profession trajectory so far raises considerations. Earlier than final season, Profar was not an influence hitter and he boasted a mere .238 profession batting common. That doesn’t depart a lot to be inspired by, however the Braves are clearly satisfied that one good season was well worth the three-year funding. Let’s dig deeper into what they consider in, why they consider in it, and whether or not he’ll stay as much as their expectations.
Projecting Profar’s 2025
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A breakout season of this magnitude within the eleventh season of an enormous league hitter’s profession doesn’t occur for no motive. A lot was made, particularly early within the 2024 season, about how Profar made noticeable modifications to his batting stance and added a extra pronounced leg kick to his swing in comparison with the 12 months prior. Nevertheless, as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello dutifully notes, this was not even near being the primary time that Profar has tweaked his mechanics on the plate. I’m prepared to offer the good thing about the doubt to the Braves’ hitting lab as they’re only a 12 months faraway from one of the prolific offensive seasons a staff has had in latest reminiscence, and though their total hitting coach personnel has modified since then, this is a corporation that has confirmed they’ll get essentially the most out of their bats. They did, in any case, win the 2021 World Collection after shaking up their lineup on the commerce deadline within the wake of dropping Ronald Acuna Jr. to a torn ACL. Atlanta’s high brass is shopping for into the tangible modifications we noticed from Profar in 2024, and their observe document suggests the Braves aren’t a foul vacation spot for him if he’s hoping to work carefully with a training workers that can assist him maximize his potential.
Once more, although, circumstances of hitters sustaining a dramatic early-30s breakout 12 months following a payday in free company are so few and much between. Fangraphs has at the moment launched the outcomes of two proprietary participant projection fashions for 2025. Steamer, a projection mannequin that has been well-liked amongst the sabermetric neighborhood for years, has Profar slashing .260/350/.408, recording 18 residence runs and a 113 wRC+. This is able to be tied for the second-best wRC+ of his profession with the shortened 2020 season. Their latest projection system, OOPSY (no, that’s not an abbreviation for something – be happy to learn creator Jordan Rosenblum’s writeup right here if you happen to’re ) is much less optimistic: It estimates a .249/.337/.390 slash line, 16 residence runs, and a 104 wRC+ for Profar in 2025. Taking protection and baserunning into consideration, Steamer initiatives Profar to have a 1.9-WAR season, in comparison with OOPSY’s 1.2.
Each of these hypothetical situations see Profar coming right down to earth a good bit this coming season, and whereas it might be puzzling to see given the underlying legitimacy of his stellar 2024, it’s far more according to his prior profession requirements. I don’t all the time agree with non-public projection programs like Steamer and OOPSY actually because they’re too conservative which, in equity, is by design. But, these outcomes are finally fairly near what I might’ve anticipated from Profar in 2025 if I had been to make an arbitrary guess. In that case, his $14M wage for the following 3 years wouldn’t appear like a cut price – nevertheless it wouldn’t be an overpay both.
At this level, it’s truthful to name Profar an MLB veteran, and he’s an fascinating case research whose 2024 season appears more durable to make a verdict on the extra we examine each it and the journey that took him there. He’s a incredible instance of why gaudy underlying numbers and assuming a participant’s abruptly newfound success is sustainable is a careless judgment to make. He could have a wider vary of potential outcomes to his 2025 season, and for that matter, the following two in his contract, than any free agent signing from this winter. However, although, his efficiency this previous 12 months will go down as one of many higher single-season enhancements within the historical past of baseball. It’s an admirable story for a former high prospect who, after debuting at age 19, battled by years of damage bother and underperformance to lastly earn his first all-star nod and recognition from America’s baseball writers at age 31. This payday was a very long time coming for Profar, but when the Braves can re-establish their knack for expertise analysis and he can turn into even two-thirds of the participant all through his contract that he was in 2024, then he could have been greater than value each penny. As for Profar himself, then, it can actually have been well worth the years of unrealized potential.
