Where Has the Success of the Toronto Blue Jays Gone?

The day was Sunday, August twenty second, 2021. The Toronto Blue Jays had been main the Detroit Tigers by a rating of 2-1 within the prime of the Ninth inning. There have been two outs, and a routine floor ball was hit to second baseman Marcus Semien. And the throw was merely booted, subsequently main the Tigers to a Ninth-inning comeback and an eventual 5-3 win in 11 innings. 

The blown lead in late innings is a standard prevalence within the sport of baseball, and whereas Semien was the one who made the pricey error, the blame was not solely on him. Groups win and lose collectively as an entity. Nonetheless, this sport particularly brings ache to Blue Jays followers that’s a lot bigger than simply your common loss. 

The 2021 Toronto Blue Jays regarded like an absolute wagon and a group that opponents would have been extraordinarily frightened of in the event that they had been fortunate sufficient to make it to the postseason. A lineup stacked with sluggers like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, George Springer, Bo Bichette, and a first-rate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. A pitching rotation compiled of a recently-acquired Jose Berrios, a future Cy Younger winner in Robbie Ray, a returned-to-form Steven Matz, and a younger, budding ace (or at the least we thought) in Alek Manoah. Nonetheless, that notorious loss in opposition to Detroit is usually regarded again on as the rationale the 2021 Blue Jays missed the postseason, as they had been eradicated on the final day of the common season, only one sport shy of a wild card berth.

On an excellent darker word, the 2021 Blue Jays felt just like the final time the group was really feared. Certain, the odd “World Collection favourite” decide was given to the group in subsequent years; however with each following season, the regression of what was purported to turn into a dynasty has grown bigger and bigger, resulting in the lackluster on-field product this season.

As of the writing of this text, the Jays are sitting in final place within the AL East, and are considerably out of the wild card dialog. The entrance workplace acted accordingly on the deadline, promoting off acceptable items, however the query lies, how did we get right here? How did a group with such excessive hopes fall flat on their face only some years later?

It begins with the offense. Since seemingly the start of 2023, the pop and hazard the Jays offense carried merely vanished into skinny air. In 2022, the group completed seventh in HRs, third in RBIs, 4th in Runs Scored, and 1st(!) in hits. In 2023, they completed simply barely under common in all of these classes. Many would level to the brand new contact-oriented method applied by their new offensive rent Don Mattingly for that downgrade. Fortunately, the pitching employees carried out otherworldly, and single-handedly dragged this group to the playoffs, solely to have that very same offensive weak spot be their downfall, as they had been outscored 5-1 in two wild card video games in opposition to the Twins.

This season, it has gotten a lot worse. The Jays rank twenty sixth in HRs, twenty third in RBIs, 18th in Hits, and twenty second in runs scored. Not nice to say the least. The blame for these struggles is aimed each which method, whether or not or not it’s administration, teaching, or the gamers themselves.

Many would level to Normal Supervisor Ross Atkins, as he was the person behind the trades of key offensive hitters like Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr, in addition to the group’s #1 prospect on the time, catcher Gabriel Moreno, in an effort to seek out gamers extra centered on defensive and make contact with potential. Granted, in principle, the acquisitions of those trades labored out within the eyes of administration in 2023, as Erik Swanson solidified a big 2022 weak spot within the bullpen and Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier performed outstanding protection within the outfield; a masterful improve for what Gurriel and Hernandez had supplied. The issue? None of these acquisitions hit effectively, if even common in that season. Kiermaier was shockingly serviceable, as he hit at a .741 OPS, 32 factors larger than his profession common. Nonetheless, to place that in perspective, Kiermaier had the fifth finest OPS on your entire group, solely behind Bichette, Guerrero, Matt Chapman (whom all had below-average years by their requirements), and Brandon Belt (who at present doesn’t have an MLB contract). This was a better OPS than $125M outfielder George Springer put up in 2023, to place issues in a terrifying perspective.

In the meantime, all three of Hernandez, Gurriel, and Moreno proceeded to have an OPS of equal, if not larger, worth than Kiermaier’s. All had been key contributors that would assist a slumping offense, and to make issues worse, Gurriel and Moreno bought to profile their success on a grand stage because the Diamondbacks made an inconceivable run to the World Collection. 

One might forgive Atkins for these errors, as nobody might see such a big lower in offensive manufacturing from 2022 to 2023 coming. The remaining core of Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer was not as dominant power-wise in 2022 as they had been in 2021, however logically, it was moderately unreasonable to count on a mere 23-year-old Guerrero to persistently be a 1.000 OPS participant, regardless of how gifted he confirmed he might be. Bichette could possibly be relied upon to be cash within the financial institution for a .290 common and 20 HRs, and Springer’s gradual decline was to be anticipated as he bought older. Nonetheless, having each Springer’s and Guerrero’s respective OPS drop by at the least 175 factors every was not deliberate for, and but, they wouldn’t be the primary gamers to wrestle compared to their profession bests, and so they gained’t be the final both. Issues will repair itself up subsequent 12 months, proper?

Unsuitable. 2024 proved that these offensive struggles weren’t a mere blip on the radar. Bichette has had an absolute nightmare season. After three straight seasons of hitting at the least .290, 20 HRs, and 135 video games performed, Bichette has had three separate Injured Checklist stints this 12 months alone, solely logging 4 HRs to a .223 common in solely 79 video games performed. To place that in perspective, after accruing a mixed 14.4 WAR from 2021-2023, Bichette has posted a -0.2 WAR on this season. By no means thoughts the off-the-field conversations about him being open to a commerce out of Toronto as a result of I can’t think about anybody who might use a recent begin of a season greater than Bo Bichette.

George Springer could be an in depth second although. On the time of this text, Springer is slashing .228/.311/.382 on the season, and this was miles higher of a consequence than what the primary a part of his season recommended. Earlier than June twenty fifth, Springer was hitting a poultry .188/.278/.281 on the 12 months. When Springer was initially signed in 2021, the Blue Jays had been all the time ready to see some regression from him in his older age. I doubt they anticipated the shell of a participant he was, and fortuitously he has turned it round in addition to he has. 

The cherry on prime is that Atkins had a option to put together for this. Choices like Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Teoscar Hernandez had been obtainable deep into the offseason, however Atkins opted for extra contact-oriented bats in Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner. To not say these signings had been full failures by any stretch of the creativeness, however for a Jays group that was Shohei Ohtani, mixed with seeing how Pederson and Hernandez are performing of their respective groups, Jays followers have utterly legitimate reasoning to be disenchanted.

One other key cause for the disappointing season has been the bullpen, and even the pitching as an entire. The Jays’ bullpen has the 2nd worst bullpen ERA at 5.03, solely trailing the Rockies. It is a worse score than the 2021 bullpen which had a 4.08 ERA, and most Jays followers blame that bullpen for costing them the playoff spot in that 12 months. Prime acquisition Erik Swanson was at one level demoted to Triple-A this season. Key lefty Tim Mayza struggled his option to a DFA. Nearer Jordan Romano has been injured for almost all of the season. Choices to patch up the holes can barely get by an inning to a degree the place getting a place participant could be a extra productive possibility. The best arms like Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards (at occasions), and Nate Pearson had been promptly shipped out on the deadline. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi (regardless of what his commerce haul introduced in) are all having down seasons compared to 2023, and replacements like Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, and Yariel Rodriguez haven’t discovered everlasting spots as replacements, whether or not or not it’s as a consequence of damage, inconsistency, or each. The pitching has felt like a revolving door all season, and there’s no sight of it stopping till September ends.

So the place do the Blue Jays go from right here? Administration has been quoted saying that they need to compete in 2025, and with the strikes they made on the deadline, it looks like that could be a sensible risk. The prospects that they picked up are nearer to the foremost league degree than what you’ll see in your traditional sell-off, and the trades of sure items will permit some youthful gamers to get some useful expertise and taking part in time. If all goes effectively, there are brighter days forward in Toronto, however they may most probably have to attend till subsequent season for these days to happen.