There’s nothing like playoff baseball… until you’re one of many 4 freshly eradicated groups from the sector.
The approaching weeks might be a time of mourning for these dearly departed from the diamond and their followers. Whereas others have a good time and proceed to win, they’ll commiserate and surprise in regards to the what-ifs. They’ll watch as their thoughts stops entertaining lineup matches and bullpen splits and begin obsessing over the rumor mill.
However earlier than any rumors can take root, let’s look at the place the Nationwide League losers are. The place are the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres headed? Who would possibly they lose, who ought to they maintain, and what ideas can distract them from the playoff baseball they’ve out of the blue been disadvantaged of?
Philadelphia Phillies
This Philadelphia core made its bones regardless of the doubts. They upstaged a top-seeded Atlanta workforce twice — as soon as in 2022 and once more in 2023 — en path to a World Sequence and NLCS. The Fightin’ Phils have been feisty, scrappy, underdogs awash within the continuous movement of champagne that stained Garrett Stubbs’ Phillies-themed overalls.
However now, Philadelphia finds the shoe and the overalls on the opposite foot. After a 95-win season, the Phillies have been a favourite for a change. Their reward? A 3-1 collection loss within the NLDS to a sixth-seeded New York Mets who’ve manifested McDonald’s-powered magic.
It’s a merciless, surprising end result for Philadelphia. This was presupposed to be the season the place they have been the bride, not the bridesmaid. But right here they stand, once more holding the bouquet as one other walks down the aisle. The Metropolis of Brotherly Love is left within the rearview of a limousine with the phrase “WINNER” painted alongside the aspect.
Ache apart, issues in Philadelphia aren’t as disastrous as its native speak radio makes it seem. Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos are all returning to subsequent yr’s workforce. They usually’re not alone. Cristopher Sánchez broke out, and Alec Bohm is coming off a profession yr, as is Ranger Suárez. This Phillies core isn’t simply supremely proficient. It’ll keep collectively for no less than all of subsequent season.
There’s additionally little room to doubt these in cost. President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski steered the workforce to 3 straight playoff appearances, a primary for the franchise since its 2007 to 2011 playoff streak. He’s rebuilt a roster from nothing, allured stars to town, and maximized the group’s window.
The whole lot is there for Philadelphia to reach the close to and much… The whole lot apart from a couple of points.
One of many largest hurdles for Philly is its bullpen. In years previous, this was a problem as a result of an absence of horses within the barn. With high-end relievers like Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman set to hit free company, Philly’s drawback is now maintaining its thoroughbreds within the steady.
Whereas Hoffman had a troubled playoff run, posting a 40.50 ERA, maintaining him can be a boon for Philly’s bullpen. Over his two seasons within the crimson pinstripes, Hoffman has a 2.28 ERA throughout 122 video games. He additionally boasts an 184 ERA+, 2.54 FIP, 0.944 WHIP, 158 strikeouts, and 11 saves.
These numbers have Hoffman fifth in fWAR amongst all relievers over the past two seasons. He’s additionally sixth in FIP, eighth in ERA and FIP, and eleventh in strikeout price. Hoffman is a stud of a reliever and has been nails for the Phillies regardless of the metric. Dropping him can be a blow the workforce can’t afford, given their aspirations.
The Phillies Potential Pen Losses
Maintaining Estevez isn’t as a lot of a precedence regardless of his preprimary numbers. Whereas the 31-year-old’s been wonderful this season, touting a 2.45 ERA, 171 ERA+, and a career-best 0.909 WHIP, he hasn’t been as dominant as he was with the Angels.
Since debuting with Philly on July 30, Estevez is fourth amongst its relievers in ERA and WHIP, sixth in FIP, and seventh in xFIP and strikeouts-per-nine-innings. Different worrisome numbers seem with a better look. As an example, Estevez noticed his strikeout price drop from 25.8% with Los Angeles to twenty.5% with Philadelphia. Likewise, his 4.0% stroll price within the Metropolis of Angels is double that of his 8.0% mark within the Metropolis of Brotherly Love. He simply hasn’t been practically as efficient. Nor did he, like Hoffman, impress within the playoffs.
But dropping Estevez would nonetheless be a loss. He’s first amongst all Phillies relievers in saves since arriving, third in left-on-base price, and third in BABIP. The Phillies ought to do what they’ll to maintain each pitchers round. The very last thing they want is a repeat of their 2022 bullpen, which ranked twenty third in baseball in the course of the common season.
Ought to they fail to retain one, the opposite, or each, choices can be found to Dombrowski. Kenley Jansen has lengthy been linked to the workforce, whereas Aroldis Chapman, Chris Martin, and Blake Treinen may even be available on the market.
Bullpen apart, Dombrowski has to discover a fifth starter this offseason. He could not have to go looking far, due to Andrew Painter.
The 21-year-old former first-rounder has earned his draft pedigree after which some. In 2022, Painter labored his approach throughout three leagues and shocked at every stage. He ended his season with a 1.56 ERA and a 0.886 WHIP whereas hanging out 155 batters throughout 22 begins. Extra spectacular, Painter achieved all this as a 19-year-old and made it to Double-A by season’s finish. The Phillies deservedly named him their Minor League Participant of the 12 months for his efforts.
The membership additionally invited the teenager to spring coaching that season. On March 10, nonetheless, Painter was sidelined for the subsequent 4 weeks as a result of a sprained elbow. That damage finally led to Tommy John surgical procedure on July 25, costing each Painter his season and his likelihood of cracking the majors.
Painter hasn’t pitched since and was solely not too long ago permitted to affix the Arizona Fall League this month. When he takes the mound, it’ll be his first motion since spring coaching a yr and a half in the past.
Whereas Painter stays an unproven commodity, there’s purpose to consider the Phillies will give the pitcher an opportunity to crack the 2024 Opening Day roster. That transfer feels particularly determined as a result of Taijuan Walker’s 2024 efficiency. The correct-hander was an abject catastrophe in 2024. The veteran struggled so harshly that Philadelphia tried him as a starter and a reliever to salvage one thing from him.
Neither function moved the needle. As a starter, Walker posted a 7.18 ERA, 1.689 WHIP, and a 3-7 document in 15 begins. That 7.18 ERA was the worst in baseball amongst all people who have no less than 70 innings pitched. Walker pitched to a equally subpar rating as a reliever, carrying a 6.52 ERA and 1.966 WHIP in simply 4 appearances.
Even with the caveat that Walked confronted quite a few accidents in 2024, it’s unimaginable to not admit he was an abject catastrophe. What’s worse, nonetheless, is the hurler is below contract till 2027. How the Phillies will repair or free themselves of Walker is unclear. However, the state of affairs isn’t sustainable, leaving room for Painter or one other pitcher to take the fifth spot in 2025’s rotation.
Few different areas of Philadelphia’s roster really feel as challenged. But that’s to not recommend the membership is ideal. An improve could possibly be helpful in heart subject, for starters. Johan Rojas acquired a lot of the taking part in time and didn’t impress. The outfielder hit .243/.279/.322 with three residence runs, 32 RBI, and a .601 OPS in 120 video games this season. Rojas additionally didn’t contribute in the course of the postseason, going 1-5 in three video games.
Transferring Brandon Marsh to heart subject full-time would possibly alleviate Rojas’ offensive limitations. Likewise, elevated taking part in time for outfielder Weston Wilson would possibly present a lift. The 29-year-old hit .284/.347/.489 with three homers, 10 RBI, and a .836 OPS in 40 video games performed in 2024. He would possibly present the additional offensive increase the workforce wants.
Previous that, there’s not a lot the Phillies ought to or can do to their roster. Their playoff exit isn’t emblematic of a porous roster. It symbolizes how laborious it’s to win all of it. They have been the new, younger workforce in 2021 and got here up brief in opposition to the Astros. Then, in 2023 with a 3-2 collection lead in opposition to the Diamondbacks within the NLCS, Nola allowed 4 runs and didn’t survive the fifth. The D-Backs would then reply once more in Recreation 7, win, and punch their ticket to the World Sequence. The Phillies aren’t far-off. They’re simply constantly on the surface trying in.
Possibly Philadelphia wants new doubts they’ll rage in opposition to to take that subsequent step. If that’s the case, the workforce is in luck. Their followers and speak radio present lots.
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres skilled the very best highs and the bottom lows solely baseball can carry over 72 hours.
On Tuesday evening, the membership secured a victory at hand them a 2-1 collection benefit over the rivaled Los Angeles Dodgers within the NLDS. They’d outscored the Dodgers 16-7 over video games two and three and seemed impervious. Followers and gamers alike felt on the cusp of one thing nice. Particular. All of that pleasure was misplaced by Friday evening. The Friars’ offense fizzled out, went scoreless in 24 consecutive innings, misplaced video games 4 and 5 to the Dodgers, the collection, and now have to attend till spring to step foot on the diamond once more.
The Padres wakened Saturday morning realizing they have been only one win away. It was within the palm of their palms. Now, it’s scattered within the wind whereas an extended, brutal winter of hypotheticals awaits. This winter gained’t simply comprise what-ifs for the Padres or their entrance workplace. It’ll carry questions that want answering and futures that want deciding.
No future is as up-in-the-air as that of tremendous utilityman Jurickson Profar. The 31-year-old is coming off an oddly-timed breakout season. He boasted career-bests in residence runs, RBI, OBP, OPS, wRC+, whole bases, and runs scored whereas taking part in a brand new excessive of 158 video games. It was a sensational 2024.
Profar hasn’t simply been nice inside the context of his profession, nonetheless. His 4.3 fWAR by season’s finish is third on the workforce, forward of potential Corridor of Famers Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr./robust>. Throughout the NL, Profar ranks thirteenth in fWAR, sixth in wRC+, and eleventh in OPS. He’s arguably been a top-ten participant within the NL this season. Appreciation for his accomplishments solely grows when contemplating that earlier than 2024, Profar had a .706 OPS in his profession. The veteran grew wings that flew him from the realm of common to the land of superstardom.
However how professional is Profar’s metamorphosis? And the way a lot will it price to maintain him in San Diego’s brown and gold? Answering the primary query comes with difficulties. Gamers can rewrite their story in baseball with sufficient time and care. But utterly remaking oneself, in Profar’s case, at 31 years previous after 11 seasons is uncommon.
What offers hope to Profar’s turnaround is his superior numbers. Some gamers who breakout are counting on the artwork of luck. That isn’t solely the case right here. Profar’s XBA is .280, his XSLG .448, and his XWOBA is .364. The primary is within the prime 9 % and provides credence to his renewed contact talents. The second reveals he must be hitting the ball as laborious as he’s. Like the primary, the third places Profar within the prime eight % of all hitters. In different phrases, there’s no purpose to consider it is a fluke.
Whether or not or not the Padres pays the participant Profar’s turn out to be is a unique situation. Given his late-career breakout and the prospect that is the veteran’s solely likelihood at a payday, it’s unlikely he’ll search a team-friendly contract. Nor ought to he. But that’s the worst potential information for the Padres.
The workforce’s payroll is already challenged by the contracts of Machado, Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and even Jake Cronenworth. And that’s earlier than paying Luis Arraez, Dylan Stop, Michael King, and Jason Adam what they’re owed of their last yr of arbitration. The Padres might additionally decide up a mutual choice on All-Star Ha-Seong Kim’s contract this offseason to additional complicate issues.
It’s potential, if unlikely, that the Padres might be Profar-less in 2025.
The excellent news is that moreover Profar there are only a few gamers the Padres might be with out. Their solely different marquee place participant hitting free company is catcher Kyle Higashioka. Although Higashioka is having fun with a profession yr, belting 17 homers and 45 RBI whereas posting a .739 OPS, he’ll even be a 34-year-old free agent. The catcher is already splitting time with Luis Campusano as well. Dropping Higashioka gained’t shatter San Diego.
Even dropping All-Star reliever Tanner Scott gained’t kill San Diego.
That assertion sounds preposterous. Scott has a 1.75 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP. He’s struck out 84 and registered 22 saves in his 72 video games. Opposing offenses are hitting simply .179/.285/.243 in opposition to him with a shocking .528 OPS. Amongst all relievers, Scott ranks sixth in ERA and sixteenth in batting common in opposition to. Being with out him in 2025 must be a blow to any bullpen.
But different numbers point out Scott isn’t as excellent as he appears. Since being traded to San Diego from Miami, Scott has a 2.73 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, and eight.9 hits-per-nine-innings. His 74.4 left-on-base price is 102nd in all of baseball, and his .252 batting common in opposition to is 134th. Even a few of Scott’s numbers in Miami name for renewed scrutiny. Throughout his time in South Seaside, Scott’s 1.21 ERA ranked fourth amongst all closers. His 3.21 FIP ranked 61st, nonetheless.
Think about Scott’s efficiency with San Diego’s plethora of different robust relievers — Jason Adam, Bryan Hoeing, Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, and Yuki Matsui — and the workforce can survive with out Scott.
The workforce’s rotation is the one space needing assist. This counts double after the announcement that Musgrove will miss all of 2025 as a result of late-season Tommy John surgical procedure. Musgrove hasn’t been excellent, nor has he been wholesome these final two seasons. However at Musgrove’s worst, he’s an above-average arm. At his finest, he’s among the finest within the NL. His loss might be a tough one to mitigate.
Re-signing starter Martín Pérez, who’s much-improved since coming to San Diego by way of commerce, is likely to be an economical answer. The southpaw racked up a 3.46 ERA with a 1.212 WHIP in his 10 begins with San Diego. Even when the workforce would welcome him again in 2025, retaining Pérez can’t be the one transfer San Diego makes.
As stellar as he’s been, Darvish hasn’t began 30 video games in two seasons. He’s additionally simply turned 38. Randy Vasquez made 20 begins for the workforce. In them, he recorded a 4.87 ERA with a 1.510 WHIP and a 4.70 FIP. One other new arm, Matt Waldron, has his warts, posting a 4.91 ERA, 1.261 WHIP, and a 4.26 FIP. With or with out Musgrove, the Padres would’ve wanted one other arm in 2025. With their money constraints discovering certainly one of his caliber might be a problem.
Aside from these points, San Diego isn’t doomed. This core works. Tatis Jr. is again to his All-Star type. If something, he’s higher. Within the workforce’s two playoff collection, the celebrity hit .423/.500/.950 with a jaw-dropping, seemingly unimaginable 1.500 OPS. Tatis nonetheless has an excellent Machado to try to match him, a now three-time batting champion in Arraez, a employees composed of Stop, King, and Darvish, and a ten,000-megawatt star in Jackson Merrill.
San Diego’s President of Baseball Operations A.J. Preller loves making massive strikes. However Preller shouldn’t be held prisoner by these 72 hours separating him from hope and defeat. This Padres workforce is sweet. Excellent. And for as soon as, they might not want one other headline-grabbing transfer to get higher.
