Where Do the Mets Go From Here?

It was enjoyable whereas it lasted, however the Grimace/OMG/By no means Say Die New York Mets are… nicely… lifeless.

Their executioner? The Los Angeles Dodgers. Their reason for dying? A 4-2 collection loss within the Nationwide League Championship Collection by the hands of a suffocating LA pitching workers and a boom-or-bust New York offense that disappeared when wanted probably the most.

Regardless of the loss, the 2024 Mets ought to watch the dust fall with a smile. This staff shouldn’t have been right here to start with. They have been a season-worst 24-35 on June 11. This staff blew a three-run lead in Recreation 161 earlier than Francisco Lindor launched a postseason-clinching homer within the ninth. They have been two outs away from shedding within the Wildcard to the Brewers. Impossibly, they beat a 95-win Philadelphia Phillies staff for Pete’s sake. They usually did so with out an excessive amount of bother.

Like Rocky Balboa, the Mets absorbed each punch from Apollo Creed and at all times answered with a response. They fought again on weak knees that begged to buckle, staggered to the NLCS, and stood tall. There may be the Aristocracy of their dying. There’s additionally hope on the horizon. Mark Vientos emerged as a star, Lindor reasserted himself as probably the greatest gamers in baseball, and the brand new regime confirmed a savviness that’s been seemingly absent from the franchise since 1986.

But, like Sylvester Stallone circa 1977, one other query awaits the Mets: Now that they’ve had their underdog victory, what’s subsequent?

The primary and maybe most obtrusive query the Mets have to reply is what to do with Pete Alonso. The slugger’s been half and parcel of the staff since his debut in 2019. He’s beloved and adored by the blue and orange. However he may spend the remainder of his profession in several colours as a consequence of his impending free company.

At first look, the answer appears easy. The Mets have World Collection aspirations, Alonso’s a four-time All-Star, and the group is among the few who will spend to win. Protecting him must be a foregone conclusion. He’s led the Majors in RBI since 2019, ranks second in dwelling runs throughout that point, sixteenth in runs scored, 18th in OPS, and twenty second in wRC+ whereas enjoying the second-most video games. He’s good, typically nice, and at all times obtainable.

Alonso will ask for top-of-the-shelf cash. For good motive. Any staff could be comfortable to have a hitter of his caliber. So why haven’t the Mets prolonged their All-Star, and why is there a debate about whether or not they need to?

For all of his strengths, Alonso has quite a few weaknesses—many of which have been on show in 2024. Shockingly, a type of was the facility he’d constructed his status on.

In earlier seasons, Alonso mashed 40 dwelling runs simply doing so in 2019, 2022, and 2023. Alonso’s 37-homer season in 2021 is an outlier, but it’s his solely marketing campaign the place he performed fewer than 154 video games. 2024, nevertheless, provides no caveats. Alonso performed each recreation this season. Regardless of that, he hit 34 dwelling runs, a career-worst. That’s not all. His 21 doubles, .459 slugging proportion, .788 OPS, and 279 complete bases have been additionally profession lows. In lots of respects, Alonso was a pale imitation of the Polar Bear we’re used to.

A deeper dive into the analytics finds different Arctic waters. A .470 anticipated slug exhibits that is no fluke. As does his 8.3 Barrel/PA, a metric almost a complete digit decrease than his profession common. Accompanying these rises have been a +5.8% improve in his GB%, the Twenty first-highest year-to-year improve in baseball, and a 30.5 LA Candy-Spot% that put Alonso within the 14th percentile amongst all hitters. Conversely, Alonso noticed his weak contact shoot up from 3.8% in 2023 to five.5% in 2024. His strikeouts additionally rose, ending with 172, the second-highest complete of his profession.

The underside line is Alonso didn’t carry out just like the prolific energy hitter he’s identified to be. The opposite concern is he didn’t hit like a middle-of-the-order bat ought to.

In 2022, when Alonso completed eighth in NL MVP voting, he had a .950 OPS with males on base and a 1.099 OPS with runners in scoring manufacturing. The one gamers to surpass Alonso’s 1.099 OPS? Aaron Decide and Shohei Ohtani. Concerning run manufacturing, Alonso launched 25 homers with 116 RBI with males on in 2022 and 17 dwelling runs with 96 RBI when runners have been in scoring place. He wasn’t simply good. He was one of many premier cleanup hitters within the recreation.

Alonso was something however that in 2024. With runners in scoring place, he hit .232/.344/.417 with a career-worst .762 OPS. When males are on base, his numbers are much more alarming. His .215/.325/.407 slash line is the worst of his six-year profession. So isn’t his .732 OPS, 14 dwelling runs, and 68 RBI. That .723 OPS is 111th amongst all certified hitters.

These numbers aren’t all disastrous. However they’re admittedly a far cry from his earlier performances.

That very same adage applies to his efficiency in late/shut video games. In 80 late/shut situations, the Polar Bear hit .136/.290/.235 with a staggeringly low .525 OPS. Moreover, he had simply two dwelling runs and 7 RBI throughout these circumstances. He was a borderline detriment in tight video games.

Furthering that time was Alonso’s play in high-leverage moments. In keeping with Fangraphs, Alonso hit .180/.338/.280 with a .618 OPS, 1 homer, and 11 RBI in high-leverage conditions. He completed the common season 94th in RBI, 97th in batting common, and 102nd in BABIP. Whereas his .338 OBP is just 56th and an enchancment in comparison with his .262 mark from a 12 months in the past, that’s not what groups might be fascinated with him for. They’ll see him as a run scorer — A bat that places the worry of God in different pitchers. Besides Alonso hasn’t performed that position this season. Not even shut.

Flat-out, this isn’t the manufacturing you anticipate from a participant like Alonso. Neither is it the manufacturing that warrants the payday Alonso and his agent, Scott Boras, will search within the offseason.

These questions—whether or not Alonso is the participant from the previous or the participant of the current—plus others about his defensive acumen, year-by-year lower in slugging, and plate self-discipline, make this a difficult choice for the Mets. Alonso has proven the power to be a terrific situational hitter. He’s been the kind of bat that may anchor a lineup. Look no additional than this postseason, the place he hit .273/.431/.568 with a .999 OPS.

Alonso may have a market. Deservedly so. Solely New York’s President of Baseball Operations David Stearns, is aware of whether or not the Mets might be a part of it.

With a less-than-stellar Alonso in 2024, the Mets wanted different elements to hold them, particularly, their pitching.

New York’s workers rose to the event, fortunately. The staff completed the common season fifteenth in staff ERA with the Twelfth-best beginning pitching ERA and Seventeenth-best bullpen ERA. These numbers don’t correctly replicate the reality, nevertheless. From June 11 to the tip of the season, the Mets, as a staff and beginning rotation, touted the ninth-best ERA in baseball. They have been forward of the Dodgers, Yankees, and Phillies.

By each proper, they have been a top-10 beginning pitching workers for many of the common season. Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Jose Quintana led the cost for the starters this season and appeared nice. Manaea had his greatest season as a full-time starter with a 3.47 ERA. Severino made 30+ begins for the primary time since 2018 and appeared each bit the pitcher he was then, and Quintana completed with a 2.77 ERA over his final 18 begins.

These gamers have been important components to the 2024 Mets. But none are beneath contract for 2025’s recipe. Because of their performances and the fixed want for pitchers throughout baseball, every will entice a bevy of suitors. Whereas the Mets will certainly be amongst them, there’s no assure a reunion is within the works.

Shedding not one however all three of those pitchers could be a cataclysmic blow to the Mets. It’s not a mistake that supervisor Carlos Mendoza gave them the beginning in 10 of the staff’s 13 playoff video games. When it mattered most, these have been the arms they turned to.

They’ve been their greatest, most reliant arms within the workers. Now, the Mets is perhaps with out three-fifths of their rotation. The quandary leaves the Mets with two choices: Re-sign who you’ll be able to from the trio or search their substitute elsewhere.

Possibility one, whereas a wise strategy, shouldn’t be with out threat. Manaea is coming off an unimaginable season. Of that, there’s little doubt. A lot is surrounding the southpaw’s observe file, nevertheless. Manaea was equally stable in 2021, with a 3.91 ERA in 32 begins. He adopted it with a 4.96 mark the season after, then a 4.44 ERA with the Giants in 2023. One other concern is the quantity of stress on Manaea’s arm. His 200.1 complete innings are a career-high and virtually 80 greater than he pitched a 12 months in the past.

Re-signing Manaea is betting on continuous improvement and well being for a nine-year-veteran who’s 32, quickly to be 33. It’s a dangerous proposition—even when Manaea’s been New York’s greatest starter.

Totally different issues plague a attainable extension for Severino. Not like Manaea, Severino has a observe file. He’s completed third and ninth in AL Cy Younger voting in 2017 and 2018 and carried a 3.18 ERA throughout these two mixed seasons. At his greatest, Severino is an all-world ace.

But Severino’s 2024 shouldn’t be good. His 8.2 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, 3.0 BB/9, and eight.0 SO/9 are all worse or simply barely higher than his profession averages. Likewise, different groups discovered Severino because the season went alongside. Within the first half, batters had a .232/.308/.352 slash with a .660 OPS. Opposing offenses improved on every of these marks within the second half, hitting .259/.322/.428 with a .751 OPS. Severino’s splits would look even worse with out his two scoreless outings towards the Miami Marlins. Subtract them from his ledger and he has a 5.18 ERA within the second half.

Nonetheless, Severino’s appeared good. Typically even nice in 2024. Nevertheless it’s greater than honest to query if he’s dependable—both from a consistency and well being standpoint. Even in his non-Tommy John seasons, Severino’s battled by way of issues. A groin damage postponed his return from the surgical procedure in 2021, a low-grade lat pressure brought on him to overlook time in 2022, and an indirect pressure shorted a disappointing 2023 season.

It’s value praising Severino’s return to type. It’s additionally okay to query if his well being will maintain up all through his subsequent contract. Particularly following a 2024 that noticed him pitch roughly 100 extra innings than a season earlier than.

As for Quintana, he stays a bull. No underlying metrics disprove him to be something apart from a stable five-and-dive pitcher. He’s made 76 begins over his final three seasons with a 3.39 ERA. That 3.39 doesn’t sound too spectacular till given context. It’s twenty fifth in baseball and decrease than the ERAs of Dylan Stop, Yu Darvish, Freddy Peralta, Aaron Nola, and Nathan Eovaldi.

The one query for Quintana is that if he can lengthen this stretch. He’ll flip 36 in January, and 2025 might be his 14th MLB season. Lance Lynn, Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander are the few energetic pitchers with extra innings than Quintana. In different phrases, the one threat with re-signing him is he may lastly lose to Father Time.

There are many exterior pitchers the Mets may be capable of substitute their trio with. Blake Snell or Corbin Burnes signify a high-upside, high-cost answer. Yusei Kikuchi, Walker Buehler, or Michael Soroka are cost-effective, second-chance choices just like Manaea or Severino’s signings a 12 months in the past. Buehler is an particularly intriguing arm given his earlier pedigree. Like Manaea and Severino, Buehler may profit from a 12 months with Mets pitching coach and career-reviver Jeremy Hefner.

Mitigating any potential loss is the return of Kodai Senga. The previous All-Star spent many of the 12 months on the shelf. Getting him again might be a boon for the rotation. A full season from a remade David Peterson will present insurance coverage, too. Since his Might 29 season debut, Peterson’s 2.90 ERA is sixth within the NL, his 1.9 fWAR is tied for Twelfth, and his 3.67 FIP is thirteenth. Receiving assist from prospects may also alleviate issues. Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell, Jonah Tong, Dominic Hamel, and Mike Vasil might be inner arms able to leaping to the Present and plugging no matter holes free company leaves behind.

The variety of holes free company may afflict on the Mets is a matter. And the checklist extends far previous Alonso, Manaea, Quintana, and Severino. Harrison Bader, Jose Iglesias, J.D. Martinez, Jesse Winker, Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, and Ryne Stanek are all projected to hit the market. That’s 392 video games performed between these 4 place gamers in addition to 97 mixed innings between these 4 relievers. It’s a large crop that the Mets both have to retain or substitute elements of.

Letting gamers like Martinez and Ottavino, two veterans ticking towards the ultimate seconds of their careers, go is straightforward. Determining what to do with Bader, Iglesias, and Winker is tougher. Bader’s .657 OPS is his highest in a full season since 2021. He additionally performed an distinctive heart discipline. One thing that grew to become a necessity for the Mets as soon as Nimmo transitioned to a nook spot.

Iglesias was significantly important to 2024’s success. The 34-year-old hit .337/.381/.448 with an .830 OPS. He scored 39 runs, performed glorious protection, and his 2.5 fWAR was fifth-best on the staff. By fWAR metrics alone, Iglesias had a greater season than Severino, Alonso, Peterson, Bader, Jeff McNeil, and Edwin Díaz. Iglesias is a lot extra than simply “OMG.” He’s a tone-setter, a steadying presence, and a large motive this staff made it so far as they did.

So isn’t Winker. Out of 102 certified hitters this postseason, Winker is third in OBP, eighth in wRC+, ninth in OPS, fifteenth in slugging proportion, and 18th in batting common. With out an apparent DH candidate in 2025, re-signing Winker makes all of the sense on the planet.

But these already within the Mets system complicate the attainable future of those veteran place gamers. MLB.com tasks three of the group’s high six prospects to debut in 2025. Most of those prospects play the identical positions as these veterans. Like Bader, Drew Gilbert is a profession heart fielder. Jett Williams, one other prospect, has restricted time within the outfield however has a future there with Lindor blocking him at shortstop. Why can’t Williams play elsewhere within the infield? As a result of it’s crowded by Vientos, McNeil, Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuña, Brett Baty, and probably Iglesias. And that’s beneath the idea Alonso walks.

The Mets can resolve who they need to be this offseason. Do they need to push all their chips in, give Juan Soto $1 billion, supply high-end expertise high greenback, commerce these they don’t deem important, and chase the ring? If that’s their need, they’ll have an proprietor prepared to foot the invoice that’ll require. Or do the Mets need waves of younger expertise somewhat than a roster dotted with established stars? With an encouraging farm system, a entrance workplace that is aware of what it’s doing, and a breakout season from Vientos, that’s simply as attainable. Perhaps the Mets will do each. Who is aware of?

Regardless of the questions, the Mets are in a secure place. The Mets, a franchise lengthy tortured by inept mismanagement, appear on the verge of one thing particular. The By no means Say Die Mets are lifeless. However the franchise’s pulse is perhaps beating stronger than ever.