What to Spend on RP in Ottoneu

In case you have been studying my content material or following me on Twitter (or now on Bluesky) through the years, you recognize my stance on RP. If not, right here is the TL;DR of all the things I’ve ever written about relievers in Ottoneu: I don’t prefer to spend on them. Go low-cost on the pen, spend elsewhere. However, to be clear, that was at all times extra a vibes-based factor than actual evaluation. Till now.

The vibes I primarily based this technique on have been as follows:

Aid efficiency is essentially the most risky factor in baseball and the toughest to foretell. Sure, you’ll be able to rely on Emmanuel Clase to be nice. However for each Clase, there are like 15 different relievers who might be Ottoneu related but additionally may stink.
If you’re prepared to take some threat and churn by these 15 others, you may get loads of them for $1-$2 and if/once you discover those who stick, you might be set. You get a lot of the manufacturing for a tiny fraction of the associated fee.
It has labored for me. If it ain’t broke, don’t repair hassle questioning your rationale for it.

However I do know loads of different managers prefer to spend on RP, believing that the volatility makes the dependable relievers that rather more useful, and I’ve seen managers win with that method, as nicely. So I at all times had questions on this – is my technique proper?

Then Ottoneu participant Kenny replied to a tweet and requested me to place some numbers behind my stance that we shouldn’t be paying for RP and, nicely, it was time to do exactly that.

Just a little over every week in the past, I used knowledge offered by Ottoneu founder Niv Shah to have a look at essentially the most and least useful gamers in Ottoneu. This knowledge included finish of 12 months outcomes and Opening Day rosters for each crew in each OPL-eligible, season-long FanGraphs Factors league. I used this identical knowledge to to judge RP spend.

The aim was to determine if spending on RP as keepers or at public sale was an excellent technique and, in that case, how a lot spend was a good suggestion (or how a lot was an excessive amount of). I first took each participant who was RP eligible and eradicated anybody I may discover who I knew to be a SP or a prospect. This was a semi-manual course of and whereas I believe I cleaned the info fairly nicely, there’s some threat I missed a reputation or two. I don’t assume there was a lot, if any, impression.

I then totaled for every crew the variety of relievers they rostered as of Opening Day and the way a lot they spent on these RP whole. As a result of this was as of Opening Day, there are possible some groups in right here carrying a big quantity or excessive spend on RP who did NOT go away their public sale that manner, however made a commerce to amass an ace reliever earlier than the season began. I believe this can be a small impact within the knowledge however it could make spending on RP look extra engaging. A crew buying and selling for a $20 ace RP with a mortgage in March shall be handled, in right here, as in the event that they spent $20 on that RP, they usually didn’t really spend that $20. However that’s one thing to bear in mind.

Having performed that, I reduce the info a variety of alternative ways, however constantly discovered the identical consequence: my unique speculation was, usually talking, proper. You don’t wish to overspend on relievers. However you could not wish to spend nothing, both. Let’s dive into among the knowledge.

Every dot on that graph represents a decile of RP spend. So the dot that’s nearly off the highest proper nook of the graph, highest up the “Common Complete RP Spend” axis, represents the highest 10% of groups when it comes to how a lot they spent on reduction pitching, placing practically $60 into their pens, on common, and ending round Eighth place, on common. The dot closest to the underside left is the underside 10% of groups in RP spend, spending beneath $8 on common, and ending only a bit outdoors the highest 6, on common.

The common end for all groups is 6.5 and there are six dots to the left of that line (i.e., six deciles that had higher than anticipated finishes on common): the underside six deciles. The 60% of groups that spent the least on relievers (all have been beneath $34) completed higher than anticipated. The 40% that spent essentially the most (over $34), completed worse than anticipated.

However, as you’ll be able to see, it’s not so simple as “much less is best” – the 2 deciles with the perfect general finishes aren’t the underside two. Right here is the info in a desk:

As you’ll be able to see right here, the sixth and Eighth deciles, representing spends of $26-$29 and $17-$21 have been the perfect general finishers, with the underside decile (lower than $12 spend) subsequent greatest however a good distance behind.

It’s value noting that a few of these groups had not accomplished constructing their rosters and 13 groups had 0 RP on their roster at this level. If we solely take a look at the 106 groups in that decile that rostered not less than three relievers, their common end was 5.82 – higher than some other decile. If we up that bar to rostering not less than 5 relievers (a full pen), we’re left with 57 groups that completed 5.67 on common.

Lest you assume this 3-RP min would impression different deciles, listed below are the finishes by decile with that minimal utilized throughout the board:

So whereas spending as little as doable on relievers isn’t a clear-cut greatest technique, not less than for 2024, if you made an effort to construct a bullpen and for those who did so on $11 or much less, you have been higher off than for those who spent greater than that.

After all, common end is probably not what issues most. Perhaps these large spenders had loads of final place finishes, but additionally gained a bunch of titles, proper? Throughout all leagues, 8.3% of groups (1/12) win a title and 25% of groups (3/12) place within the high three (a typical reduce off for leagues which have prizes.

We see an identical sample. The three highest spending deciles have been all much less possible than sheer luck to win a title and the highest 4 highest spending deciles have been all much less possible than sheer luck to complete high three. This time the underside decile fares nicely, however not nice. The strongest teams are the Fifth-Eighth deciles – similar to the sixth and Eighth that seemed so good within the final desk. And this time, correcting that backside decile to account for groups that simply by no means constructed a pen doesn’t assist. These backside two deciles (<$17 whole spend) merely didn’t carry out in addition to the 4 above them ($17-33 whole spend).

So from an general spend perspective, going large on RP is a mistake, or not less than was in 2024. Spending greater than $33 in your pen lowers your anticipated end within the league whereas spending greater than $37 lowers your probabilities of successful the league and even putting top-three.

Going too small on relievers, then again, seems like a protected technique however possibly not a successful one. These backside decile spenders are ending larger than others on common, however are successful their leagues at a slightly-below-expected fee. The end top-three at solely an anticipated fee.

My learn on that is that by going low-cost ($11 or much less) in your pen, you’ll be able to set your self as much as construct a powerful offense and/or rotation, giving your crew a excessive ground, however you might be possible making it tougher to max out your crew’s potential since you are combating an uphill battle to get sturdy reduction scoring. However spending an excessive amount of pulls too many assets away from the remainder of your roster and leaves you extra vulnerable to the vagaries of reliever noise.

I also needs to observe that this knowledge is simply from FanGraphs factors leagues and solely from season-long leagues. I think we’d see related patterns in another codecs, however there can be some variations:

Head-to-head leagues ought to help barely larger RP spend, particularly assuming a GS-per-week cap. In these leagues, reduction innings are successfully uncapped innings and an opportunity to get factors with out utilizing up any scarce useful resource (video games began or offensive lineup spots; RP slots are scarce but it surely’s so uncommon to get >5 RP pitching the identical day that they’re successfully limitless if used nicely).
SABR Factors leagues ought to help barely larger RP spend, for the reason that stability of factors in these leagues shifts away from SP in that format, relative to FanGraphs Factors.
In 4×4 leagues, I believe the “don’t spend on RP” impact can be much more pronounced, given the shortage of worth positioned on high-leverage innings. There is no such thing as a worth to a save or maintain in 4×4.
In 5×5 leagues, this evaluation is principally ineffective. Saves are the one class in 5×5 which are successfully capped. Stolen bases are sometimes paired with saves on this manner, however there are 270 offensive gamers beginning on any given day and any of them may steal a base. On any given day, there are solely about 30 pitchers in a great spot to get a save. In truth, I believe there are solely about 20 you’ll be able to level to as “this man will possible get a save if his crew wins a detailed recreation” and one other 10-20 who may be that man however we are able to’t ensure. This makes RP costs in 5×5 leagues a very totally different beast.

Traditionally, I’ve budgeted $1 per open RP spot on my crew, and infrequently saved a reliever who price greater than $5. Even at $3, I’d get an itchy reduce finger. As I’m going by low season cuts and trades, right here is how I’m serious about reduction pitchers shifting ahead, because of this evaluation:

In my factors leagues, I’m possible protecting the $3-$5 RP who impressed me final 12 months. These are the blokes I picked up for $1-$3 final 12 months after which held onto, moderately than churning, as a result of they carried out nicely. Throughout leagues, I’ve $3 Hunter Gaddis, $3 Cade Smith, and $3 Ryan Walker, all of whom are guys I’d have been glad to commerce up to now, however will worth extra extremely this 12 months.
I’m additionally going to be extra aggressive about protecting my high-performing relievers at larger costs. I’ve a $10 Devin Williams who would have been an apparent commerce candidate for me, traditionally. He isn’t now.
In FanGraphs Factors leagues, I’m going to focus on constructing a $15-$20 bullpen, however be prepared to obtained as much as $25 if wanted. This can be a large shift from my tendency to construct $5 bullpens. I believe you may make a case for $25-$30 being a greater goal, however I believe that’s nonetheless too excessive for me.
In SABR Factors leagues, I’m going to have a look at extra like $20-$25 whole.
In 4×4 leagues, I’m sticking with my old-school $5 bullpen technique. I don’t assume this knowledge modifications my method there in any respect, however I perceive for those who disagree.
In 5×5 leagues, I’m ignoring this solely. Go get saves. They’re laborious to search out.