Was the infamous 2016 Atlanta Braves prospect ranking really that bad?

Again in 2015, when all Atlanta Braves followers had was the hope and desires on prospects because the Braves had been within the midst of their first full-fledged rebuild because the late 1980’s, FanGraphs launched a prospect rating of the highest prospects in Atlanta’s system and boy howdy had been followers mad on-line. It was so dangerous that FanGraphs up to date the rating – most notably including Austin Riley to the record after his omission from the unique piece.

This was the “Barves” period – when issues had been terrible in Atlanta – a lot in order that any misplay or TOOTBLAN was recognized drew the hashtag, #BARVES. The primary two weeks of the 2025 season have, shockingly, hearkened again to that Barves period.

A random point out of pitcher Ryan Weber jogged the reminiscence of that FanGraphs rating and now – virtually ten years later – let’s revisit that controversial record and see how the gamers on the record truly fared throughout their huge league profession (to this point).

First, a word. FanGraphs is a go-to website for many baseball followers, and has been for a few years, with quite a few well-respected writers having been on their employees or offering perception for them now. As controversial as this referencing article was, the purpose of this piece is to see how unpredictable prospect rating precise is, and if that FanGraphs rating ended up being that dangerous, in any case.

When the 2016 Atlanta Braves prospect analysis piece initially printed in late 2015, three names jumped to the primary of these with problem and ire: beginning pitchers John Gant and Ryan Weber and infielder Austin Riley.

For Gant and Weber, it was about their placement within the rankings – each of which had been larger than anybody possible might have imagined within the high 5. For Riley, it was about his omission from the rating.

Now, ten seasons into the longer term, was the Braves web group proper to have had their tail feathers so ruffled?

Utilizing FanGraphs personal metrics, here’s a have a look at how every of these high prospects have produced (to this point) n their skilled journey. Merely put, this isn’t going to be a deep dive, however a easy measure of fWAR – and some notes, the place wanted – ranging from the underside of their revised record. Gamers with a “N/A” didn’t (or haven’t) reached the large leagues.

Carson Cistulli’s Man

Now of the Toronto Blue Jay’s entrance workplace, Cistulli selected somebody within the group that wasn’t ranked as his man.

Willians Astudillo (C) – -0.3 fWAR throughout 5 MLB season for the utility man who didn’t stroll nor strike out in any respect with a 1.9-percent walk-rate and 4.8-percent strikeout charge. “Tortuga” was a little bit of a cult-hero who additionally pitched in seven video games throughout his profession.

Fast Hits

The honorable mentions of honorable mentions.

Dian Toscano (OF) – N/A

Joseph Odom (C) – -0.5 fWAR in 20 MLB video games.

Lucas Herbert (C) – N/A

Juan Yepez (C) – -0.1 fWAR throughout three seasons and continues to be energetic.

Tanner Murphy (C) – N/A

Brandon Barker (P) – N/A

Ryan Clark (P) – N/A

Andy Otero (P) – N/A

Gamers of Observe

The precise honorable mentions.

Dustin Peterson (3B/OF) – -0.2 fWAR in 19 video games; debuted with Atlanta and performed in two video games with the Braves.

Luke Dykstra (2B) – N/A

Jason Hursh (P) – 0.0 fWAR in 11 profession video games, together with one MLB win in 2017 for the Braves.

Sean Godfrey (OF) – N/A

Conner Lien (OF) – N/A

Johan Camargo (SS) – 4.0 fWAR. The primary participant on this record to have a posting fWAR, Camargo was the Braves beginning third baseman in 2018 and posted a 3.2 fWAR in 132 video games following a rookie season with 1.6 fWAR in 82 video games. He was a part of the 2021 World Sequence Championship group, though he appeared in solely 15 video games and didn’t get successful that season. His final had a few espresso in 2022 and 2023 with two completely different groups.

Ranked Gamers

These gamers had been grouped primarily based on their future worth, from lowest to highest.

21. Andrew Thurman (P) – N/A

20. Rio Ruiz (3B) – -0.8 fWAR in 315 profession video games with the Braves and Baltimore Orioles.

19. Tyrell Jenkins (P) – -0.9 fWAR in 14 video games for the Braves in 2016 after which was traded for Luke Jackson and Jordan Walden.

18. Richard Sanchez (P) – -0.1 fWAR in three profession video games. He turns 28 on April 11 and pitched within the KBO the previous two seasons.

17. Braxton Davidson (P) – N/A

16. Daniel Castro (IF) – -1.4 fWAR in 98 profession video games, together with 80 with the Braves in 2015 and 2016.

15. Chris Ellis (P) – 0.3 fWAR in 10 profession video games for 3 completely different organizations.

14. Mauricio Cabrera (P) – 0.7 fWAR in 41 profession video games, all in 2016 for the Braves.

13. Touki Toussaint (P) – 0.0 fWAR in 88 profession video games and continues to be energetic. He has but to have the ability put all of it collectively on the mound, however just isn’t but 29 years outdated.

12. Max Fried (P) – 19.1 fWAR in 170 video games and 153 begins and is coming off signing one of many largest free agent contracts for left handed pitchers in MLB historical past. He has been a two-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove Award winner and received what was possible the final Silver Slugger Award for pitchers in historical past. He additionally has two top-5 Cy Younger Award finishes. He’s now with the New York Yankees.

11. Mike Soroka (P) – 4.9 fWAR. If not for accidents, the 27-year-old possible would have accrued extra fWAR. He has solely pitched in 70 video games since his 2018 debut – together with is All-Star 2019 season with the Braves. He’s with the Washington Nationals.

10. Mallex Smith (OF) – 5.0 fWAR. The speedy outfielder solely spent one season with Atlanta however performed in 442 profession video games and stole 40 or extra locations in 2018 and 2019.

9. Max Povse (P) – 0.0 fWAR in three video games in 2017 for the Seattle Mariners.

8. Hector Olivera (3B/OF) – -0.3 fWARD. A commerce acquisition by Atlanta after signing a big-money deal as a free agent out of Cuba, his profession ended after 30 video games and a home violence suspension.

7. Lucas Sims (P) – 2.1 fWAR. Sims, who continues to be energetic, has pitched in 252 video games, the place he has carved out a distinct segment as a right-handed reliever after debuting as a starter with Atlanta in 2017.

6. Austin Riley (3B) – 18.4 fWAR. Riley, the Braves beginning third baseman who the group locked as much as the largest contract extension in group historical past, posted 5+ fWAR seasons from 2021 to 2023, earlier than an injury-shortened 2024 season. He has been a two-time Silver Slugger and All-Star.

5. Ryan Weber (P) – 0.0 fWAR in 76 profession video games throughout 9 huge league seasons serving as a swing-man bouncing between MLB and Triple-A.

4. Kolby Allard (P) – 0.5 fWAR in 76 profession video games, Allard continues to be energetic and solely 27, has had two stints in Atlanta and has appeared in not less than three MLB video games in every season since 2018, coming into this season.

3. Sean Newcomb (P) – 3.0 fWAR. The left-hander appeared to be establishing himself as a rotation choice for Atlanta within the late ‘10s, however struggles with command and a conversion to aid appeared to forged doubt on his huge league future as he seen restricted MLB motion in current seasons. He made the Boston Purple Sox beginning rotation out of Spring Coaching this season.

2. John Gant (P) – 3.0 fWAR. Gant appeared in 173 video games and made 49 begins in six big-league season, most with the St. Louis Cardinals.

1. Ozzie Albies (SS) – 20.4 fWAR. One of the best prospect on the FanGraphs record has produced probably the most fWAR of any participant with the second baseman in his ninth season as Atlanta’s beginning second baseman. A 3-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger, Albies has handled damage points in two of the previous three seasons, however has appeared in 880 profession video games for the Braves.

2025 Re-ranking

Looking back, how would the FanGraph’s participant rankings be revalued primarily based on fWAR? (Unique rating in parentheses.)

1. Albies (1) 20.4 fWAR

2. Fried (12) 19.1 fWAR

3. Riley (6) 18.4 fWAR

4. Smith (10) 5.0 fWAR

5. Soroka (11) 4.9 fWAR

6. Camargo (Not Ranked) 4.0 fWAR

7. (tie). Gant (2) 3.0 fWAR

7 (tie). Newcomb (3) 3.0 fWAR

9. Sims (7) 2.1 fWAR

10. Cabrera (14) 0.7 fWAR

So, there you may have it, not less than for now. All these years later, the consternation about Gant and Weber are kind of a a lot ado about nothing, proper? However there are nonetheless no excuses for Riley.