Final week, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. advised ESPN that his asking value in extension negotiations with the Blue Jays was south of $600MM. The star first baseman didn’t publicly establish his precise demand, although he famous he was on the lookout for a 14-plus yr deal.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic gives extra specifics, reporting that Guerrero wished a web current worth of $500MM to bypass testing the open market. That might have taken the type of a good $500MM+ with out deferrals or a deferred cope with a loftier general assure that might nonetheless have pushed the NPV to half a billion {dollars}. A hypothetical 14-year extension price $500MM would include an approximate $35.7MM annual worth and would run by way of Guerrero’s age-39 season (assuming it started this yr).
The deferrals had been evidently a sticking level. Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of The New York Publish report that Toronto provided a deal that was within the $500MM vary general however included deferred cash. In response to that report, the NPV would have landed between $400MM and $450MM. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet writes that the NPV on the crew’s provide was near $450MM, suggesting they got here in on the greater finish of the vary initially reported by The New York Publish.
That might nonetheless have represented the third-largest assure in league historical past. Juan Soto simply holds the document at $765MM with out deferrals. The Shohei Ohtani deal is respectively valued round $461MM and $438MM by the league and Gamers Affiliation, respectively. Guerrero sought a quantity that might have positioned him behind solely Soto in web current worth. His reported asking value was nowhere close to Soto cash, which so handily shattered prior precedent that it might be an outlier for some time. Nonetheless, it seemingly landed upwards of $50MM greater (in NPV phrases) than the Jays had been prepared to go. Guerrero indicated he wasn’t all for persevering with negotiations past the opening of Spring Coaching. He has left the door open to reconsidering however mentioned at the beginning of camp that he anticipates testing free company.
The Jays have no less than expressed a willingness to stretch the price range past Guerrero’s asking value for star gamers. They had been seemingly prepared to match the contract that Ohtani accepted from the Dodgers. Their exact provide to Soto isn’t clear however is believed to have been between $600MM and $700MM. That reveals they’re not completely averse to this sort of signing, but it’s additionally a incontrovertible fact that the biggest contract in franchise historical past stays the comparatively modest $150MM George Springer deal.
Toronto’s newest provide represents a big bounce from the place they opened talks. Guerrero mentioned over the offseason that the Jays’ presents earlier than the Soto bidding had been within the $340MM vary. Whereas the Soto value level didn’t make them prepared to jot down a clean verify for Guerrero, it seemingly contributed to them going $60MM+ above the place they’d been by way of current worth.
Guerrero is a profession .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a yr in the past. At his finest, he seems like one of many prime 5 hitters within the sport. He hasn’t fairly maintained that degree on an annual foundation, although. He completed among the many prime six in MVP balloting in 2021 (ending runner-up that yr) and ’24. Within the intervening two seasons, he hit .269/.341/.462 throughout almost 1400 plate appearances. That’s nonetheless excellent however not the form of overwhelming numbers that’d pressure groups to basically overlook questions on his defensive profile.
Assuming he will get to the market, Guerrero is more likely to be the highest free agent within the class. Kyle Tucker is arguably a greater general participant, however the Cubs outfielder will hit free company at age 29. Guerrero will get to the market at 27. The 2-year age hole offers Guerrero the higher likelihood to land a deal that stretches past a decade regardless of groups’ basic reluctance to make extraordinarily lengthy commitments to first basemen.
