Blue Jays place gamers reported to camp this morning for the membership’s first full-squad exercise of the spring, and famous person first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set a deadline of at the moment for extension talks with the membership forward of his ultimate season underneath membership management earlier than free company. That deadline has come and gone, and Guerrero advised reporters (together with Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) this morning that the perimeters didn’t attain a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan provides that Guerrero doesn’t intend to barter throughout the season and now expects to achieve free company, whereas Hazel Mae relays (Video Hyperlink) that Guerrero famous he “wouldn’t shut the door” on signing if Toronto brass offered him with a “sensible” provide.
Guerrero, nonetheless simply 25 till March 16, is likely one of the most completed younger gamers within the league and is prone to enter free company as essentially the most sought-after participant out there. A four-time All-Star with a Gold Glove award at first base and two Silver Slugger awards underneath his belt, Guerrero is a .288/.363/.500 (137 wRC+) hitter for his profession. That kind of offensive expertise will at all times be attractive to golf equipment in free company, however what makes Guerrero stand out as a top-of-the-class hitter is his mixture of youth and ceiling.
Few hitters within the recreation can accomplish what Guerrero has in his peak seasons; his 2021 marketing campaign was second solely to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting as he hit .311/.401/.601 (166 wRC+). His 48 dwelling runs have been tied with Salvador Perez for essentially the most within the majors that yr, and his .401 on-base proportion led the American League whereas trailing solely Juan Soto and Bryce Harper within the NL. Steps again offensively in 2022 and ’23 raised questions relating to whether or not that otherworldly efficiency is perhaps a fluke, however Guerrero squashed these issues by kind of repeating his 2021 heroics this previous season. Guerrero slashed a sensational .323/.396/.544 (165 wRC+) in 159 video games for the Jays this previous yr, hitting “simply” 30 homers within the course of however making up for that with a career-best 44 doubles and a 13.8% strikeout fee that was the bottom of his profession. Simply 9 certified MLB hitters struck out much less usually than Guerrero in 2024, and amongst that group solely Jose Ramirez and his 39-homer marketing campaign have been in a position to high Guerrero’s .221 remoted slugging proportion.
Reaching free company on the heels of his age-26 season ought to make Guerrero all of the extra engaging in free company come November. Guerrero will hit the open market only one yr older than Juan Soto was throughout his personal free company this previous winter, and that younger age was essential for Soto in securing his record-shattering deal that figures to pay him $765MM over the subsequent 15 years and will max out at greater than $800MM. That large payday got here despite Soto being a restricted defender within the outfield corners who doesn’t present substantial worth on the basepaths. Whereas Soto is arguably in a category all his personal as a hitter, together with his profession 158 wRC+ practically matching Guerrero’s peak seasons, his report payday continues to be nice information for the Jays’ slugger as there’s arguably no higher comparability for Soto within the league than Guerrero at his peak.
On condition that, it’s straightforward to think about the bidding for Guerrero’s companies surpassing half of a billion {dollars}. That appears to be proper round the place Guerrero set the bar in extension talks with Toronto, as studies relating to his asking worth have prompt he was searching for north of $450MM. As Passan notes, Guerrero answered with a easy “No” when requested if the Blue Jays had put forth a suggestion that was near his worth level, and given Guerrero stated earlier this winter that Toronto’s provide to him previous to Soto’s take care of the Mets sat at $340MM it’s onerous to argue together with his evaluation until the membership introduced their provide considerably larger over the course of the offseason.
Given the hole between the Guerrero’s rumored calls for and the provide he stated the Blue Jays made, it’s hardly a shock that the perimeters didn’t work out a deal. That’s mirrored in a ballot of MLBTR readers final month, the place simply 19.49% of respondents believed Guerrero would signal long-term with the membership earlier than at the moment’s self-imposed deadline. Even so, Guerrero made clear to reporters that he’d nonetheless wish to be a Blue Jay for all times at the same time as he went on to notice that Toronto will now must compete with 29 different golf equipment for his companies on the open market. However, he additionally famous (as relayed by Matheson) his want to win a World Collection championship together with his subsequent membership. That want to win might harm the Blue Jays’ odds of preserving Guerrero, as they completed useless final in a crowded AL East division with a 74-88 report. They seem like longshots for the postseason this yr as nicely after the Yankees and Orioles augmented their already playoff-caliber golf equipment whereas the Purple Sox put collectively a powerful offseason that noticed them add a number of star gamers in Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman.
As for the entrance workplace’s perspective, membership GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters shortly after Guerrero did and expressed disappointment {that a} deal didn’t get completed, as relayed by Matheson. Atkins went on to emphasise that the membership “labored very onerous” of their efforts to come back collectively on a deal and added that the “motivation” on the group’s half to maintain their famous person within the fold is “nonetheless there.” Atkins refused to get into specifics relating to numbers and contract gives however described their provide to Guerrero as one that will’ve been record-setting for the Blue Jays and made Guerrero “one of many highest paid gamers” in baseball if signed (video hyperlink by way of Mae). Atkins additionally made clear that the membership’s incapability to get a deal completed with Guerrero was not a matter of sources, although that’s hardly a shock given their high-dollar bids for Ohtani and Soto the previous two winters.
Going ahead, the Blue Jays determine to proceed making an attempt to win throughout Guerrero’s ultimate yr of membership management. They’ve lengthy resisted the opportunity of commerce talks involving their star slugger and, after spending $166MM so as to add Yimi Garcia, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer in free company this winter whereas including one other $96.5MM in commerce by taking over the Andres Gimenez contract from the Guardians, it appears unlikely that they’d change course now somewhat than push in for 2025 and hope they will persuade Guerrero to return subsequent offseason. It’s attainable that they might revisit the opportunity of dealing Guerrero on the commerce deadline this summer time in the event that they’ve fallen utterly out of the playoff image by then, nonetheless, and if shopped Guerrero could be essentially the most impactful rental moved at a commerce deadline since Manny Machado in 2018.
