It’s occurred to all of us. We see the shiny new toy. We would like it. We’ve by no means performed with it earlier than. It appears superior. The probabilities are countless as a result of they’re unknown. However is that at all times a very good factor?
Sure and no. In case you look again throughout a number of the higher-profiled prospects in recent times, a few of them have become true game-changers and dynasty baseball cornerstones. Bobby Witt. Jr. Corbin Carroll. Julio Rodriguez. Heck, even final 12 months you see names like Paul Skenes, Jackson Merrill, and Jackson Chourio.
However generally these younger gamers don’t pan out how we would like them to. Nate Pearson. Andrew Vaughn. Dylan Carlson. Gavin Lux. Immediately, gamers that you simply checked out as constructing blocks are roster fillers.
There’s nothing flawed with chasing the upside, however generally it’s the dependable veterans that may get you a championship. It’s straightforward to miss the constant and the boring.
Let’s check out some veterans (minimal 5 years of MLB expertise) that could possibly be undervalued heading into 2025. A few of these gamers are bounce-back candidates, whereas others are merely constant producers.
Kyle Schwarber, UT, PHI
There’s a very good probability Schwarber’s worth will take a success this offseason, particularly in dynasty startups. He’s misplaced his outfield eligibility, showing within the outfield in simply 5 video games in 2024. That proper there’ll give many pause when Schwarber—it’s by no means enjoyable having somebody clog up your Utility spot.
That being mentioned, there haven’t been many energy bats in Schwarber’s league. For the reason that begin of 2022, he’s belted 131 house runs. That’s third greatest in all of baseball, trailing solely Aaron Decide and Shohei Ohtani. Throughout that span he’s additionally ranked sixth in runs scored and sixth in RBIs. He’s not a base stealer, however he’ll swipe a few luggage throughout the season. His .221 batting common throughout that point interval could be a deterrent, however he will get a giant enhance if you’re enjoying in OBP or OPS leagues.
This isn’t meant to persuade you that Schwarber is a few hidden gem—you already know he is an efficient hitter. Nevertheless it’s most likely a bit shocking simply how good his counting stats have been in recent times, and that’s not going to alter anytime quickly. Schwarber goes to hit on the high of 1 the most effective lineups within the sport and knock out round 40 house runs. As UT-only participant in his early 30s, he’s going to slip down dynasty rankings, however perhaps he shouldn’t. His recreation ought to proceed to age properly and maybe we hit the jackpot and he begins getting the occasional recreation within the outfield.
Randy Arozarena, OF, SEA
This choose is banking on a bounce again season. Even in a down 12 months, although, Arozarena demonstrated his consistency, netting his fourth consecutive 20-20 season. He’s considered one of simply three gamers to log a 20-20 season in every marketing campaign since 2021 (Trea Turner and Jose Ramirez are the others), and whereas he barely met the factors this season (he had precisely 20 house runs and precisely 20 steals), there aren’t many gamers that bankable for energy and pace.
The flip aspect right here is that 2024 was objectively Arzoarena’s worst season. He hit a career-worst .219 on the plate, and his strikeout and stroll charges each went within the flawed course in comparison with the earlier season. So the query turns into whether or not or not you imagine that Arozarena’s 2024 was the start of a decline, or only a bad-luck blip.
Both is definitely potential, particularly with Arozarena coming into his age-30 season. However there’s sufficient beneath the hood right here to imagine that the outfielder will bounce again sufficient in 2025 to make him worthwhile to your dynasty groups. Arozarena logged a career-worst .275 BABIP final season, after averaging a .332 clip the earlier three years. That quantity most likely bounces again towards his norms, even when they don’t attain his profession highs. He began pulling the ball and hitting fly balls at a career-high fee in 2024 (RAYS!), so it’s very potential this suppressed his BABIP. His batting common with Seattle, whereas nonetheless not what we had been used to, ticked as much as .231.
General, a .240 common with a very good OBP and one other 20-20 season is definitely in play for Arozarena. That’s not going to be the star of your fantasy group, however it may possibly positively add some stability to it. He seems like a robust guess to outperform his ADP.
Bryan Reynolds, OF, PIT
Now that he’s coming into his age-30 season, Reynolds completely suits the boring however constant veteran mould.
Listed here are the house run totals for Reynolds in every of the final 4 seasons: 24, 27, 24, 24. Throughout these 4 seasons, he’s totaled 325 runs and 324 RBIs, averaging about 81 of every per 12 months, whereas triple slashing .276/.352/.472. His 2024 numbers fell proper into place with these averages—final season, Reynolds hit .275 with 24 house runs, with 73 runs and 88 RBIs. He additionally chipped in 10 steals. Amongst outfielders, that ranked him tenth in house runs, thirty third in runs, eighth in RBIs, twelfth in batting common, and twenty eighth in steals.
So general—you understand what you will get with Reynolds. He’s a hitter that’s going to be fairly good in each class, however not nice in any of them. That’s useful, however boring. It’s straightforward for managers to give attention to the latter whereas ignoring the previous. At age-30, Reynolds ought to have just a few extra years of acting at one of these degree. The Pirates are definitely assured that he’ll—Reynolds signed a deal in 2023 that locks him up by the 2030 season. So whereas Pittsburgh is probably not probably the most thrilling of lineups to be part of, it’s comforting understanding that you’ve got a very good hitter that’s going to be hitting in the course of a lineup for the foreseeable future.
Seth Lugo, P, KCR
Now that we’ve checked out just a few bats, let’s head to the mound. You’ve most likely already forgotten, however Lugo simply completed second within the AL Cy Younger race. That’s nuts! It’s not undeserving both, as the correct hander recorded a 3.00 ERA throughout 33 begins and 206.2 innings. He tossed the second-most innings in all of baseball, trailing solely Logan Gilbert, and his 181 strikeouts landed him nineteenth general on the season. His 16 wins (tied for third general) didn’t harm both.
Lengthy story quick is that in case you had been a Lugo fantasy supervisor this previous season, you had been very pleased with the return. Will he be capable of replicate his success in 2025 and past? That is still to be seen. And whereas it’s most likely unlikely he produces at a Cy Younger contender degree, it’s very life like that he can be a secure contributor for groups. In spite of everything, he returned to a starter’s function in 2023 and put collectively a really stable marketing campaign, with a 3.57 ERA and 140 strikeouts in 146 innings.
Taking a look at all the elements and Lugo turns into a first-rate dynasty goal, particularly for contenders. Heading into 2025, Lugo isn’t going to have a high-ADP, particularly for somebody that’s coming off a season the place he was one of the crucial beneficial pitchers within the sport. A big cause for that’s his perceived lack of ceiling. His 21.7% strikeout fee is significantly decrease than the high-end arms, and it’s not going that he’s going to see a serious uptick in that class as he turns 35. However Lugo makes up for that by consuming innings—as talked about earlier than, he ranked within the high 20 in complete strikeouts, above gamers with higher strikeout charges just because he throws extra frames. Toss in that he performs for a very good group and the trail to fifteen+ wins once more is simple to see.
A 35-year-old is probably not the consensus greatest purchase in dynasty leagues, however that ought to make him even simpler to amass. It’s widespread in dynasty for managers to overvalue youth and ceiling, so guys like Lugo may be had for a lot lower than their precise price. Lugo is rarely going to be considered as a constructing block or franchise cornerstone for dynasty groups at this level in his profession, however he needs to be valued as a dependable arm.
Sonny Grey, P, STL
A very good chunk of what’s written above about Lugo may be transported to the part about Grey. Grey is coming into his twelfth MLB season, and at 35-years-old he’s not precisely coming into the prime of his profession.
Or is he?
Grey tossed 166.1 frames in 2024 and posted a 24.4% Okay-BB fee. That’s the most effective mark of his profession, which is saying one thing for an arm that has been one of the crucial dependable throughout the final decade. It’s potential that truth will get misplaced within the shuffle when discussing Grey’s 2024—his 3.84 ERA was his second-worst mark since 2018, and his house run fee jumped from a minuscule 5.2% in 2023 to 14.3% in 2024. A surface-level look and it could possibly be straightforward to ignore Grey and imagine that he’s beginning to decline. However his FIP (3.70) and xFIP (2.82) had been each considerably higher than his ERA, and each marks ranked within the high 10 amongst all certified pitchers. The xFIP was second in all of baseball.
The Cardinals signed Grey to a three-year deal within the 2024 offseason, however there have been rumors that he could also be traded winter. If he does, he’s prone to go to a contender and that can solely assist his probabilities at extra wins.
