Since Josh Naylor didn’t signal an extension with the Guardians throughout his pre-arbitration years, it has all the time appeared like there was a ticking clock on the primary baseman’s time within the Cleve. With the exceptions of Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco agreeing to below-market extensions to stick with the franchise, a take a look at Cleveland’s extension historical past during the last 17 years (hat tip to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker) reveals the straightforward reality that the Guards just about by no means signal gamers to long-term extensions for important salaries as soon as they get inside a yr or two of free company.
Naylor is now coming into his ultimate season of staff management, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM wage in his final journey by means of the arbitration course of. It’s a pleasant elevate from his $6.5MM wage in 2024, and since arbitration calculations are inclined to closely weigh conventional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely money in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.
A peek on the extra superior metrics is a bit more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was stable however not fairly elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023. That prior season noticed Naylor get pleasure from a .326 BABIP, whereas the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP. Most of Naylor’s manufacturing additionally got here within the first three months of the season, and it could possibly be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor sporting down because the yr progressed. On the plus aspect, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast classes, and he was a much more affected person hitter than in years previous, with a 9.2% stroll price that can also be a profession greatest.
All this being stated, even “solely” a repeat of his 2024 season ought to put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a profitable free agent deal when he reaches the open market subsequent winter. It additionally very probably places him out of Cleveland’s value vary over the long run, and fairly probably even for the 2025 marketing campaign.
The Guards had some elevated attendance at Progressive Subject throughout the common season they usually bought a pleasant income increase from internet hosting six playoff video games, but the group will even expertise some degree of dropoff of their broadcasting {dollars}. MLB itself will now be dealing with the native distribution of Guardians video games after the Diamond Sports activities Group backed out of its unique contracts with the Guards and 10 different groups, which signifies that the Guardians will obtain some however not the entire broadcast income they might’ve acquired below the phrases of their earlier deal.
In a world the place the Guardians had been nonetheless getting all of that TV cash, odds are Naylor would nonetheless have been traded, simply because that’s how the Guards have historically finished enterprise. And naturally, it isn’t an absolute assure that the primary baseman will probably be on the transfer this offseason. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti won’t discover a suggestion to his liking, or possession may approve a barely larger payroll to make one other run with what seems like a profitable core. Naylor may then be shopped on the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in rivalry, or saved by means of his final remaining season of staff management after which very probably let go in free company. That latter state of affairs would a minimum of put Cleveland in place to land a draft choose as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying provide and signed elsewhere.
Promoting excessive on Naylor this winter would possibly land greater than only a draft choose, nonetheless. Naylor’s identify has already surfaced in previous commerce rumors, because the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor final winter. Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch most likely takes them out of the operating, but Seattle and Pittsburgh are each nonetheless focusing on first base assist, and offensive assist in normal.
Whereas neither the M’s or Pirates are anticipated to be huge spenders in free company anyway, Naylor stands out as a significant backup plan for any staff that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the 2 largest first basemen on the free agent market. For one yr and round $12MM, Naylor isn’t an enormous splurge even for smaller-market golf equipment, or golf equipment just like the Guardians who’re dealing with broadcasting issues. Broadly taking a look at groups who’ve a transparent or potential want at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former staff) may be a part of the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors. The Tigers or Royals may additionally technically match on this listing however Cleveland is much less prone to transfer Naylor to a division rival.
Because the Guardians have plenty of uncertainty of their beginning rotation subsequent yr, groups which have pitching to supply may need a leg up in commerce talks. The Guards’ ordinary tactic of pursuing a minimum of one prospect and a minimum of one fast MLB-ready participant in trades could possibly be restricted by the truth that Naylor is barely managed for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets throughout the 2020-21 offseason.
There’s additionally the matter of how the Guardians will change Naylor of their lineup. Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a possible lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Main League PA this season. The Guards is likely to be assured sufficient in a mixture of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base within the occasion that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran could possibly be acquired to offer extra depth. It might simply be argued {that a} Guardians staff even with Naylor again remains to be in want of extra offense, so buying and selling Naylor may put Cleveland in want of discovering a fair larger bat for the outfield.
The trade-and-replace routine has turn out to be acquainted over time in Cleveland, and the fanbase would possibly grit their tooth on the thought of dealing away one other outstanding participant for payroll-related causes. Shifting Naylor specifically has a singular layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably stay on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking apart the enjoyable thought of a household connection on the coronary heart of the lineup.
Nonetheless, the Guardians’ tactic of buying and selling gamers slightly than simply letting them stroll in free company has allowed the membership to repeatedly reload each the farm system and the lively roster. Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless observe document along with his offers, but Antonetti’s excessive batting common on the commerce market has helped the Guards put up profitable information in 10 of the final 12 seasons, with seven postseason journeys in that span. Discovering the precise match on a Naylor commerce this winter would possibly end in Cleveland getting again to the playoffs subsequent fall.
