The third base place is chock stuffed with thrilling expertise all through the Minors and Majors. From José Ramírez to Austin Riley and Matt Shaw to Coby Mayo, we’ve a robust core of gamers to deal with the recent nook over the subsequent decade. Our Dynasty Crew at Pitcher Listing has launched into a posh and infrequently controversial job: creating participant comps. However worry not. Our staff is up for the problem! It’s vital to keep in mind that we aren’t saying expertise or gamers are 1:1; as an alternative, we’re merely taking a historic stat line as a foundation for the ground and ceiling of a prospect for fantasy functions. Here’s a have a look at some notable participant comps in comparison with present third-base prospects!
Matt Shaw, CHC
Dynasty Ground Comp: 2018 Rougned Odor
.253 AVG | .326 OBP | .424 SLG | 18 HR | 12 SB | 26.7 Ok% | 8.0 BB%
Odor will not be the most effective comp total, however the stat line is honest and so they have related talent units. I anticipate Shaw constantly offering double-digit homers and steals all through his profession whereas additionally hitting for a stable common. Shaw makes above-average contact and sound swing selections frequently. Thus, he ought to keep away from reaching a strikeout fee that top, however with a little bit of added aggression down the road, I may see a path to sub-10% stroll charges.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2018 Alex Bregman
.286 AVG | .394 OBP | .532 SLG | 31 HR | 10 SB | 12.1 Ok% | 13.9 BB%
Bregman is an ideal comp for the kind of participant Shaw will develop into as a professional. The 31-homer output might be a pipe dream, particularly taking part in in Chicago, however I can see a path to 25 homers. Plus, Bregman will get to his pull-side energy extra typically than Shaw, who has an all-fields method. The strikeout and stroll charges align with Shaw’s probably outcomes based mostly on his contact expertise and method on the plate.
True Projection:
Fantasy managers must be giddy with having Shaw on their rosters. He’s an expert hitter who grinds out each at-bat and exhibits above-average instruments throughout the board. Whereas Shaw won’t be an elite outlier in any offensive class, the sum of his elements makes him a viable Prime 100 dynasty asset for the subsequent decade. Shaw’s manufacturing will most intently align together with his ceiling when figuring out ground versus ceiling.
Coby Mayo, BAL
Dynasty Ground Comp: 2018 Matt Chapman
.229 AVG | .324 OBP | .433 SLG | 24 HR | 1 SB | 26.7 Ok% | 9.4 BB%
I actually love the Matt Chapman comparability for Mayo. Like Chapman, Mayo is a wonderful energy supply and already exhibits above-average EVs within the minors. Additionally they share the same wrestle in opposition to breaking pitches, which has generally plagued Mayo, together with his MLB debut final season. Even in a ‘down’ 12 months for Mayo, I’d anticipate mid-20s residence run manufacturing with a mean barely larger than the .229 that Chapman had in 2018.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2018 Eugenio Suárez
.283 AVG | .366 OBP | .526 SLG | 34 HR | 1 SB | 26.9 Ok% | 10.6 BB%
Given his skill to faucet into his energy, a mid-30s homer season is just not solely throughout the vary of outcomes however is a good expectation for Mayo at his peak. To succeed in a .280 common, he might want to have some BABIP luck, particularly given his prowess in hitting the ball within the air. In Suarez’s comp 12 months, he ran a near-40% groundball fee and 26.6% line drive fee, which Mayo has by no means approached within the minors.
True Projection:
Projecting Mayo was extra difficult than I anticipated. The facility is reliable, and we will firmly anticipate 30-homer seasons in his profession at peak. What stays unclear is how his hit instrument interprets and the way a lot development he experiences in opposition to off-speed pitching. MLB pitchers will discover any weak spot a hitter has, so if Mayo doesn’t make features, it may very well be problematic in opposition to his batting common and strikeout fee. I’ll stroll the road in the course of his ceiling versus ground and mission a 27-33 homer bat however with a mean constantly round .260.
Charlie Condon, COL
Dynasty Ground Comp: 2017 Chris Davis
.215 AVG | .309 OBP | .423 SLG | 26 HR | 1 SB | 42.3 Ok% | 11.6 BB%
Condon was an ultra-productive hitter in school, posting a .433 common with 37 homers in his ultimate season. Earlier than his debut, I had questions concerning the hit instrument and get in touch with expertise, and when he debuted within the minors, he was barely uncovered. It’s too quickly to make a judgment in opposition to him, however my considerations are nonetheless there. The facility is reliable, and taking part in his residence video games in Coors Discipline will solely assist Condon attain excessive residence run totals. His common won’t ever drop to .215 or his strikeout fee to 42.3%, but when the contact considerations come to fruition, it’s not unrealistic that he hits .230 with a 35% strikeout fee.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2016 Mark Trumbo
.256 AVG | .316 OBP | .533 | 47 HR | 1 SB | 27.7 Ok% | 7.6 BB%
Trumbo is an ideal comp for Condon. Each have elite energy, questionable contact expertise, and the potential to flirt with 50 homers in his residence park. To not point out the bodily comps, as Condon (6’6″, 215lb) and Trumbo (6’4″, 225) are big-bodied nook infielders. The .256 batting common is essentially the most correct, as Condon doesn’t profile as somebody who can hit over .260 with regularity, even with the Coors BABIP enhance.
True Projection:
Figuring out precisely how Condon initiatives in opposition to his ground and ceiling stays a thriller. My lean is nearer to the ground as a result of I’m involved about contact. Fantasy house owners ought to anticipate a 30-homer bat with a mid-tier batting common at peak, with years the place the ability performs and the typical doesn’t.
Cam Collier, CIN
Dynasty Ground Comp: 2018 Rafael Devers
.240 AVG | .298 OBP | .433 SLG | 21 HR | 5 SB | 26.9 Ok% | 7.8 BB%
Once I have a look at Collier, I instantly consider Devers. They’ve the same construct with that barely stocky, chubby cheeks look. There are considerations about Collier’s body and the way it holds up, very like there have been with Devers at the same age. Collier is already tapping into pull-side energy, and whereas he’s probably not progressing to a near-. 280 batting common, he does have a really feel for hitting and a sophisticated method.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2023 Paul Goldschmidt
.268 AVG | .363 OBP | .447 SLG | 25 HR | 11 SB | 23.4 Ok% | 12.7 BB%
Fortunately, it was pre-falloff, Goldy! Collier has sufficient pop and get in touch with in his bat to be a 25-homer bat with a mid-.260s common constantly. The stolen base output is probably going unreachable, even given the brand new guidelines, however it’s an enormous win if fantasy house owners can get 5 to eight steals from Collier.
True Projection:
I can’t assist however get Devers-esque vibes from Collier, though I’d be shocked if he ever reaches that degree as a hitter. What’s comparable is his body and energy upside. The one factor I’m focused on seeing Collier develop is extra aggression on the plate. His swing charges are nonetheless on the decrease finish, and Devers is notoriously aggressive on the plate. The almost certainly final result for Collier at his peak is nearer to the abovementioned ceiling.
Cam Smith, HOU
Dynasty Ground Comp: 2015 Asdrúbal Cabrera
.265 AVG | .315 SLG | .430 OBP | 15 HR | 6 SB | 19.4 Ok% | 6.5 BB%
Discovering an actual comp is sort of inconceivable, particularly in opposition to a switch-hitter, however Cabrera’s total line in 2015 seems like a great begin. I anticipate Smith having way more top-end energy, though Cabrera did have a 25-homer season. The contact charges align properly, and I see a path the place Smith has a decrease batting common as a consequence of the next fly-ball fee. It’s value monitoring to see how the stroll charges examine. Coming into his ultimate season at Florida State, Smith had a 33% chase fee however lowered it by over 10%, which additionally jumped his stroll fee.
Dynasty Ceiling Comp: 2021 Manny Machado
.278 AVG | .347 OBP | .489 SLG | 28 HR | 12 SB | 15.9 Ok% | 9.8 BB%
Apart from double-digit steals, that is properly throughout the vary of outcomes for Smith at peak. His contact expertise are questionable however ought to nonetheless be higher than the league common whereas additionally reaching plus energy. The pre-career transfer from Chicago to Houston is underrated and provides me hope that Smith has the potential to achieve 30 homers.
True Projection:
It’s arduous to mission guys who’ve but to supply a large enough pattern to go judgment precisely. Coming into his ultimate season, Smith had a couple of notable weaknesses: excessive chase charges and questionable contact expertise. He made vital features in each areas and entered the draft as a extra well-rounded hitter. When you’re shopping for the features, which I’m, Smith appears like a .270 hitter with 20-25 homers constantly.