The Way Of Robbie Ray

As the nice thinker EWB as soon as stated, “Historical past repeats. Neat. Repeat Historical past. Full. Skeet skeet.” OK, I can’t inform if that was me or Lil’ John who wrote that. However very similar to Nirvana got here again, I’m right here to remind you, once more, that Robbie Ray is OK.

Possibly you haven’t been round Razzball so long as I’ve. That’s OK. There’s a BlueSky Razzball starter pack. TLDR: I like Robbie Ray. Right here’s an article about it. And right here we’re once more, the age of 20 and 25 — concurrently harmless but seasoned — occupied with what Robbie Ray can do to your 2025 fantasy baseball workforce.

What Do I Need From My Pitchers?

I’m notoriously low on beginning pitchers in fantasy baseball. If I’m in a 12 workforce finest ball, I may not draft my first starter till spherical 7 or later. If I’m in a 12-team head-to-head, I’m ready till spherical 5. Even in a 15-rounder, I’m more likely to get my first hurler in spherical 3, after I’ve collected a pair bats to start out the draft. Should you’ve by no means performed in a 15-teamer, I recommend making an attempt it out. It’s an effective way to get made enjoyable of by a bunch of men who take into account themselves “alpha” whereas ordering Burger King from DoorDash.

Why do I draft pitchers so late? Is it as a result of I’m simply so good at fantasy baseball that Gray as soon as known as me “the Alfred Hitchcock of the draft room”? No, it’s not due to my uncanny timing. It’s as a result of I do know there are a ton of late spherical pitchers who drafters are merely bored of. Whereas everyone is dreaming of Roki Sasaki in spherical 5, I’m on the lookout for upside in Innings Pitched and Strikeouts later within the draft.

“However why does Innings Pitched matter?”, you say, your mouth filled with gummy worms and Cheetos.

Simple arithmetic, my buddy. Discuss with the desk beneath, the place I evaluate Robbie Ray’s final wholesome yr to Roki Sasaki’s “finest” yr. This isn’t to check gamers, per se, however to indicate the affect of IP on total strikeouts.

Ok/9
IP
Whole Ok

Robbie Ray (2022)
10.1
189
212

Roki Sasaki (2022, NPB)
12.0
129.1
173

The factor about IP quantity, is that it takes “fairly good” Ok/9 charges and makes them unbeatable for the glass cannons. That is why the blokes like Tyler Glasnow are simply not as nice as fantasy starters because the lots make you consider. [Dodges glasses hurled from the audience]

Robbie Ray Historic Fantasy Manufacturing

Have you ever ever run a marathon earlier than? No? Identical right here! Nice, I lastly discovered a buddy to sit down on the sofa and watch Terrace Home with. However what if we wished to rise up and run a marathon — do you assume we might do it proper off the bat? Most likely not. Principally as a result of I can barely get away from bed within the morning, and I assume that you simply most likely couldn’t carry me 26 miles.

The factor about beginning pitchers and predictable outcomes is that an unlimited issue to rising one’s certainty of their efficiency is whether or not they’ve completed effectively earlier than. Certain, this seems like your resume writing workshop — listing your achievements, after which listing your abilities, and ultimately you’ll have the consideration to get fired by an AI agent named “Aidea Aimy.” Pitchers who’ve “completed the work earlier than” usually tend to do it once more. Within the business, we name this the Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander impact. No, truly we name this “Forgot About Dre” as a result of guys like Robbie Ray are inclined to fall off the radar. Advised ya — it’s all about timing the draft.

Let’s be sincere — Robbie Ray has completed the factor earlier than. Right here’s the place he’s completed within the Beginning Pitching Rankings traditionally:

12 months
SP Rank
Notes

2019
SP35
Restoration from baseball to go

2020
SP236
Yips

2021
SP7
Rebuilt on Blue Jays

2022
SP38
Traded to Seattle

2023-2024
N/A
Tommy John surgical procedure and restoration

Robbie Ray 2025 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

Over the previous month on the Nationwide Fantasy Baseball Championships, Robbie Ray’s inventory has fallen a bit, and he’s now going 159th total, or roughly SP50 total. In a 12-teamer, that’s almost your final SP, or on a 15-teamer, your fourth starter. He’s fallen after guys like Jared Jones and Bryan Woo.

Now I’m not telling you not to draft Jared Jones, however I’m telling you {that a} Pirates pitcher will not be the place you need to be constructing your rotation.

After all, there’s a reasonably giant camel within the room (y’all thought I used to be gonna say elephant, proper? Camels are a lot simpler to suit into rooms. enywhey): Ray is on a “new” workforce and pitching his first full yr after elbow surgical procedure. Certain, there’s danger to selecting up R^2 because the savior of your pitching employees. We’re not speaking concerning the second coming of Greg Maddux.

However we are speaking a couple of man who has topped 160+ Innings 5 occasions in his profession, and in eligible seasons, has by no means dipped a Ok/9 beneath 10. Sure, even in that season the place he obtained the yips, he mixed his almost 8 BB/9 with a candy 11.8 Ok/9.

In his transient return in 2024, his numbers have been just about “the same old,” with a 12.6 Ok/9 paired with a 4.4 BB/9 over 30 IP. Walks aren’t as a lot of a fantasy worth killer as we are inclined to assume. That 1.76 HR/9 charge is, effectively, a killer. That sucks. However it’s not the worst we’ve seen out of upside guys. Studies are filtering in that Ray is kind of wholesome and lined as much as churn out a typical season on a reasonably good workforce in a pitcher pleasant park. What’s to not like?

A part of Ray’s recreation after his bout of the yips was that he simplified his arsenal in the direction of a fastball and slider combo, together with his curveball coming again for brief bursts in 2024. who else succeeded with this combo? Virtually each reliever, and a few man named Spencer Strider. Additionally, how is Spencer Strider on monitor to pitch at first of the season and he’s getting drafted simply earlier than Robbie Ray? Are y’all making an attempt to let me win your league by taking 10 batters first after which leaving the draft with Spencer Strider, Robbie Ray, and Sandy Alcantara? ENYWHEY. It’s not like Ray has to re-create 6 pitches to achieve success.

For you ESPN residence league fantasy baseballers on the market, we’re speaking about your final spherical draft decide being Robbie Ray, and you then laughing the remainder of the season whereas he does his factor. For you aggressive baseball gamers who play for photos of apes and Doge cash, Robbie Ray goes to be your backup if you see the run of starters going within the sixth and seventh rounds — you’re not going to panic as a result of you understand there’s a man with SP2-3 upside ready for you at decide 150.

What’s your tackle our favourite man to see on the mound? Drop your feedback beneath and let me know what you assume!