With a bit over two weeks left within the common season, the Royals appear poised to make their first playoff look in 9 seasons. They presently sit within the second Wild Card spot, with a magic variety of 11 to clinch a playoff spot, and a 92 p.c probability of creating the post-season, in accordance with Fangraphs.
For the post-season, every division winner will make up the highest three seeds. The three Wild Card groups would be the subsequent three seeds, even when they’ve a greater file than the division winners. The highest two groups within the league will obtain a first-round bye, whereas the #3 seed hosts the #6 seed in a best-of-three Wild Card sequence with all video games on the web site of the highest seed, and the #4 seed internet hosting the #5 seed in the identical method. The 2 profitable groups will advance and play the highest two seeds in a best-of-five sequence within the conventional League Division Sequence format.
How do fellow American League contenders stack up and what does the remaining schedule appear like? Might the Royals nonetheless make a run on the division and even the #1 total seed?
1. New York Yankees (84-62)
Run differential: +124 (tied for 1st in MLB)
By advantage of their extra-inning win over the Royals final night time, the Yankees have the highest seed, proudly owning the tiebreaker over the Guardians. The Yankees presently have a 1.5 recreation lead within the division on the Orioles, with Baltimore proudly owning the tie-breaker. So the Yankees may very well be the highest seed, or they may very well be the #4 seed (or decrease!) if the Orioles catch them.
The Yankees bought off to a terrific begin, however have been mediocre a lot of the summer season. On June 15 they stood with one of the best file in baseball, however they’ve gone simply 35-40 since then – solely three AL groups have been worse over that point. Many points stem from the bullpen, which has a 4.30 ERA since that mark with nearer Clay Holmes main baseball with 12 blown saves.
They’ve beginning pitching depth, however a scarcity of consistency. Gerrit Cole has been barely disappointing, Carlos Rodón had a tough stretch earlier this summer season, Luis Gil and Marcus Stroman have been up-and-down, Nestor Cortes Jr. was briefly despatched to the bullpen, and Clarke Schmidt is simply now coming back from damage. The Yankees should type out which pitchers they belief in a brief sequence.
Remaining schedule: vs. Boston (4), at Seattle (3), at Oakland (3), vs. Baltimore (3), vs. Pittsburgh (3)
Boston and Seattle are nonetheless combating for playoff spots, and the A’s have been surprisingly feisty, enjoying close to .500 ball a lot of the summer season. The house sequence with the Orioles looms giant and will decide the division – the Orioles have taken six of ten to this point within the season sequence.
Query to reply: What occurs if groups pitch round Juan Soto and Aaron Decide? The acquisition of Jazz Chisholm Jr. has helped lengthen the lineup, however the Yankees have simply 5 hitters with an OPS+ of 100 or higher. They’ve struggled to attain towards some high rotations – they’ve scored simply 3.6 runs-per-game towards the Orioles, and scored simply 5 runs towards Royals starters in a three-game sequence this week.
2. Cleveland Guardians (84-62)
Run differential: +79 (ninth in MLB)
The Guardians additionally bought off to a terrific begin, and whereas a 12-17 August made the division a race once more, they’ve righted the ship by profitable six of 9 in September to this point. That has opened up a 4.5 recreation lead on the Royals and 6 recreation lead on the Twins, with Fangraphs giving them a 91 p.c probability of taking the division. The Guardians maintain a tiebreaker over the Twins, however not the Royals for the division. For the highest seed, they maintain a tiebreaker over the Orioles, however not the Yankees.
The offense has slumped within the second half – they’ve the eighth-worst wRC+ of any lineup in baseball for the reason that All-Star break. Rookie Jhonkensy Noel has supplied an influence increase to the lineup, however rookie Kyle Manzardo has not lived as much as his lofty prospect rating. The Guardians can steal lots of bases, which may very well be an asset within the post-season
The bullpen has been by far one of the best in baseball all yr with Emmanuel Clase placing up among the finest seasons in latest historical past by a better. In lots of methods, the Guardians mirror the 2014-15 Royals with a high-contact strategy, terrific protection and velocity, and a shutdown bullpen.
Remaining schedule: vs. Tampa Bay (4), vs. Minnesota (4), at St. Louis (3), vs. Cincinnati (2), vs. Houston (3)
The Rays have light from competition, and the Twins are fading within the standings. The Cardinals are sunk, and whereas the Reds could also be feisty, they’ve a dropping file. The Astros could don’t have anything left to play for in that ultimate weekend sequence. The Guardians get two off days within the ultimate week of the season to reset their rotation for the playoffs.
Query to reply: What pitchers begin in a brief sequence? The rotation has been unhealthy all yr – they’ve a 4.55 ERA total with solely Tanner Bibee posting an ERA beneath 4. The Guardians have tried newly acquired veteran Alex Cobb and rookie Joey Cantillo in latest weeks, however have discovered few solutions to who might stand toe-to-toe with different high contenders within the post-season.
3. Houston Astros (77-68)
Run differential: +85 (seventh in MLB)
The Astros have a 3.5 recreation lead on the Mariners within the division and path the #2 seed Guardians by 6.5 video games, so that they’re most likely locked in for the #3 seed. They bought off to a dreadful begin – they have been 10-20 at one level and didn’t climb over .500 till June 30. However they’ve gone 35-27 since then, the third-best file within the AL over that point.
The Astros had some points with the rotation for a bit, however they’re peaking on the proper time they usually might characteristic a number of the finest post-season starters. Framber Valdez is an elite pitcher (though he has had some post-season missteps), Justin Verlander is a future Corridor of Famer, and Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco have every been terrific this yr, though with some inconsistencies, plus veteran Yusei Kikuchi may be an choice.
Houston will get slugger Kyle Tucker again on the proper time, with time to get his swing again for the post-season after lacking three months with a shin damage.
Remaining schedule: at LA Angels (3), at San Diego (3), vs. LA Angels (4), vs. Seattle (3), at Cleveland (3)
Seven video games towards the lowly Angels will remedy what ails you. If the Mariners are going to make a run, they should nonetheless be in it by the point they journey to Houston within the final week of the season.
Query to reply: Does this crew have the juice for an additional run? The Astros have been in a file seven consecutive League Championship Sequence. They’re skilled and gifted. However they confirmed early this yr they will let their guard down, and barring a scorching streak, they’re going to end this yr with their worst common season file since 2016. Is the window closing?
4. Baltimore Orioles (83-64)
Run differential: +84 (eighth in MLB)
The Orioles have a stable three-game lead over the Royals for the #4 seed, and have their sights set on overtaking the Yankees for the division. They received 101 video games final yr and have been the highest seed, solely to lose all three playoff video games and bounce out early. They arrive again with a stacked crew stuffed with gifted younger gamers hungry to show themselves. The crew has hit a little bit of a lull although, since July 4 they’re simply 28-33, the third-worst file within the American League.
The Orioles boast a deep lineup with eight hitters with an OPS+ over 100, plus gifted phenom Jackson Holliday, who has struggled to this point however definitely has expertise. They’ve two massive time energy hitters in Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander, every of whom has over 35 dwelling runs to this point. The crew is hoping to get beginning pitcher Grayson Rodriguez again earlier than the top of the season.
Remaining schedule: at Detroit (3), vs. San Francisco (3), vs. Detroit (3), at NY Yankees (3), at Minnesota (3)
The Tigers have been one of many hotter groups within the second half. The Orioles are definitely circling their sequence at Yankee Stadium within the final week of the season in a matchup that may doubtless decide the division.
Query to reply: Who will shut video games for them? They signed veteran Craig Kimbrel, however he has six blown saves this yr and an ERA of seven.71 for the reason that All-Star break. Seranthony Dominguez, acquired from the Phillies this summer season, has been getting save alternatives currently and Yennier Cano may very well be an alternative choice in what has been a fairly mediocre Orioles bullpen this yr.
5. Kansas Metropolis Royals (80-67)
Run differential: +95 (sixth in MLB)
The Royals are baseball’s greatest shock with one of many greatest turnarounds in historical past. They’ve achieved it on the again of beginning pitching, with a 3.54 ERA from starters, second-bestin baseball. It additionally helps to have an MVP candidate in Bobby Witt Jr., and whereas he doubtless received’t win over New York’s Aaron Decide, he’s having among the finest seasons ever by somebody that received’t go dwelling with the award.
The lineup did take a blow with the lack of Vinnie Pasquantino, who was among the many RBI leaders in baseball when he suffered a damaged thumb in late August. The acquisitions of Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Robbie Grossman, and Yuli Gurriel have helped paper over a skinny lineup. Like different profitable Royals groups, this crew can run the bases effectively and play terrific protection.
Remaining schedule: at Pittsburgh (3), vs. Detroit (3), vs. San Francisco (3), at Washington (3), at Atlanta (3)
That is definitely not “the gauntlet” the Royals confronted during the last 20 video games the place they completed 11th of September. Nevertheless the Pirates and Nationals have been fairly feisty this yr, and the Tigers have been a scorching crew within the second half, pulling into the playoff image. The Braves are fairly banged up, however may very well be combating for his or her playoff lives in that final sequence.
Query to reply: How will they use the bullpen? The reduction corps has been a problem all season with a 4.47 ERA and the second-worst strikeout price. Lucas Erceg has given them a fireman who can miss bats, however they’ll want others to step up, and you might see some starters like Michael Lorenzen, Alec Marsh, and perhaps even Brady Singer transfer to the pen within the post-season to offer them a lift.
6. Minnesota Twins (78-68)
Run differential: +41 (fifteenth in MLB)
The Twins are banged up. Beginning pitcher Joe Ryan and outfielder Max Kepler are out for the yr, and the crew is hoping shortstop Carlos Correa and outfielder Byron Buxton can return quickly. They’ve dropped 11 of their final 17 video games to fall behind the Royals within the standings, trailing them by 1.5 video games.
They’ll have to depend on some unheralded function gamers like Carlos Santana and Willi Castro to hold the offense, or get some kids to step up like Trevor Larnach or Edouard Julien. The bullpen has been a bit shaky currently too, with supervisor Rocco Baldelli changing Jhoan Duran at nearer with Griffin Jax.
The Twins have the tie-breaker towards the Tigers, so if Detroit have been to tie them within the standings, it will imply a one-game playoff in Minnesota.
Remaining schedule: vs. Cincinnati (3), at Cleveland (4), at Boston (3), vs. Miami (3), vs. Baltimore (3)
If Cleveland goes to be caught, Minnesota must take the sequence towards them subsequent week. The final sequence of the season towards the Orioles may very well be fascinating. Baltimore may very well be combating for the division and the #1 seed, whereas the Twins should still be combating for a playoff spot.
Query to reply: Can they beat anybody good? The Twins are 12-1 towards the White Sox, and 66-67 towards everybody else. They’re simply 37-51 towards any crew with a .500 file or higher. They’re limping in the direction of the end line, however it’s wanting like one other fast post-season exit for the Twins if they will’t beat any first rate groups.
On the surface wanting in
Detroit Tigers (75-71)
Run differential: +36 (sixteenth in MLB)
The rebuild effort in Detroit lastly appears to be bearing fruit as they’ve climbed to the surface of the post-season race. The Tigers have a 28-21 file for the reason that All-Star break, finest within the American League in that point. They now path the Twins by three video games for the ultimate Wild Card spot.
They’ve received within the second half by way of pitching – their 3.11 ERA for the reason that All-Star break is one of the best in baseball. Tarik Skubal is a Cy Younger candidate, but it surely has been a hodgepodge of relievers which have stepped up with a 2.95 ERA within the second half.
The lineup remains to be beneath common, however Matt Vierling has carried the offense, and the return of Riley Greene has been a lift. The crew has achieved this regardless of buying and selling away veterans Mark Canha, Jack Flaherty, and Andrew Chafin on the deadline and dropping veteran Javier Báez to damage (or maybe they’re profitable as a result of they now not have him and his 42 wRC+ within the lineup?)
Remaining schedule: vs. Colorado (1), vs. Baltimore (3), at Kansas Metropolis (3), at Baltimore (3), vs. Tampa Bay (3), vs. Chicago White Sox (3)
The Tigers will attempt to end off a sweep of the Rockies at the moment, however then their subsequent 9 video games are towards doubtless playoff groups, and the Rays have been round .500 a lot of the yr. Ready for them on the finish is a simple sequence towards the traditionally terrible White Sox, however the Tigers might want to keep within the race for these video games to matter.
Query to reply: Is it too little, too late? The Tigers have made a pleasant run, but it surely might not be sufficient to beat a begin that had them eight video games beneath .500 on August 10. But when the Twins proceed to slip, the Tigers might catch them and make issues fascinating.
Boston Pink Sox (74-72)
Run differential: +3 (18th in MLB)
The Pink Sox have been in place for a Wild Card spot, however since beating the Royals on August 6, they’ve gone simply 13-20, the third-worst file within the American League in that point. They now path the Twins by 4 video games for the ultimate Wild Card spot, and have fallen behind the surging Tigers.
The Pink Sox have gone youthful, and it has paid off within the lineup with one of many higher offenses in baseball.
Remaining schedule: at NY Yankees (4), at Tampa Bay (3), vs. Minnesota (3), at Toronto (3), vs. Tampa Bay (3)
This weekend’s sequence in New York may very well be Boston’s final stand within the post-season race. They’ve seven video games left towards and underachieving Rays crew, and a sequence left towards a rebuilding Blue Jays roster.
Query to reply: What relievers can get the ball to nearer Kenly Jansen? You suppose the Royals bullpen has points? Boston’s bullpen has a 6.36 ERA for the reason that All-Star break, worst in baseball. Their 29 blown saves are second solely to the White Sox. They only misplaced Brennan Berardino, who joins mid-season acquisitions Lucas Sims and Luis García on the Injured Checklist. They have been hoping Liam Hendriks may very well be prepared by now after Tommy John surgical procedure, however he had a setback in his rehab. Kenley Jansen has 26 saves in 30 probabilities, however the Pink Sox are struggling to ship any results in him.
Seattle Mariners (74-72)
Run differential: +45 (14th in MLB)
The Mariners have made one million trades in the previous few years, and all they’ve to indicate for it’s a 2022 playoff look wherein they have been bounced out within the ALDS. They’re going to must go on a run within the final two weeks in the event that they need to make it this yr, as they presently path the Twins by 4 video games.
They boast one of the best beginning pitching ERA in baseball with a rotation of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, with Luis Castillo sidelined with a hamstring damage. However they’ll must play higher on the street in the event that they need to unleash this rotation in a brief sequence. They’re 32-43 on the street, the seventh-worst file in baseball.
Remaining schedule: vs. Texas (4), vs. NY Yankees (3), at Texas (3), at Houston (3), vs. Oakland (3)
The defending champion Rangers haven’t performed prefer it this yr, so the Mariners have an opportunity to gather some wins towards them. Seattle has performed effectively towards the Astros to this point this yr, taking 6 of 10 video games.
Query to reply: Can they rating runs? The Mariners are averaging simply 4.08 runs-per-game, sixth-worst in baseball. They’ve the fourth-best stroll price and are center of the pack in dwelling runs and steals, so there’s some potential for extra offense, however they’ll have to show it on within the ultimate weeks.
