The Orioles dropped each video games of a doubleheader towards Minnesota yesterday, falling 11 video games below .500. They stored the unhealthy occasions rolling with one other loss this afternoon, attending to 12 video games below. It’s the nadir of their season to date, one from which they’ll have a tough time coming again.
As of final week, normal supervisor Mike Elias wasn’t occupied with considering the likelihood that they’ll be deadline sellers. “We’ve acquired a file that’s not reflective of who we consider our staff is, that I don’t assume anybody thought our staff was, and we’re digging a gap out of the standings proper now due to that,” the GM informed Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of The New York Submit on their podcast final Tuesday. “Hopefully, we claw again a whole lot of actual property within the standings and we get again within the mode that we totally anticipated to be. That’s my focus proper now. If it by some means evolves in any other case, I’ll handle it then.”
The staff has dropped six of eight video games since these feedback. Even with Zach Eflin coming back from the injured checklist over the weekend, the beginning rotation appears to be like untenable. Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg face unsure timelines to make it again from their very own IL stints. The chances are very a lot not of their favor. FanGraphs has the O’s playoff possibilities right down to a season-low 4.4%. The entrance workplace actually didn’t anticipate being deadline sellers, nevertheless it’s more and more tough to see them avoiding that destiny.
It will be shocking if the Orioles dealt any controllable core items like Westburg, Adley Rutschman or Jackson Holliday. It’d be robust to discover a taker on Tyler O’Neill given his annual $16.5MM salaries and opt-out clause. Tomoyuki Sugano has had stable ends in his first massive league season, however he most likely has modest commerce worth on a $13MM wage given his below-average velocity and 14.2% strikeout price.
That leaves a pair of rental bats as Baltimore’s prime commerce candidates: Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins. The previous has systematically improved over his two and a half seasons at Camden Yards. O’Hearn was a profession .219/.293/.390 hitter when the Orioles acquired him from the Royals over the 2022-23 offseason. He turned in what was then a personal-best .289/.322/.480 slash throughout his first season in Baltimore. Final yr’s batting line appears superficially like a step again — he hit .264/.334/.427 in 494 plate appearances — nevertheless it got here with a dramatically superior strikeout and stroll profile than he confirmed in 2023.
O’Hearn has maintained these spectacular plate self-discipline metrics whereas hitting for extra energy early this yr. He carries a .287/.374/.519 mark with seven longballs throughout 123 plate appearances. O’Hearn isn’t chasing pitches outdoors the strike zone. His 15.4% strikeout price is properly under the 22.1% league common. He’s making laborious contact (a 95+ MPH exit velocity) on half his batted balls, properly up from final season’s 40% clip.
The speed stats are barely inflated by the O’s tendency to defend O’Hearn from unfavorable platoon matchups. They’ve principally stored him away from left-handed pitching, giving him simply 94 plate appearances towards southpaws over the previous three seasons. He’s extra of a strong-side platoon bat than a real on a regular basis participant, however O’Hearn is prospering in that function. He’s as much as a .280/.339/.465 slash in practically 900 plate appearances towards righty pitching as a member of the Orioles.
That sort of manufacturing is a discount for a participant making an $8MM wage. O’Hearn can be a first-time free agent subsequent yr, as he enters his age-32 season. It’s robust to see the Orioles making him a qualifying supply that’d seemingly be north of $21MM. He has an excellent shot at a multi-year contract, however the O’s would most likely be higher served letting him stroll to open first base/DH enjoying time for Coby Mayo. That every one factors to a commerce.
Baltimore gained’t pull the set off on that sort of transfer two and a half months from the deadline, however he appears more likely to be out there in July. The Giants and Crimson Sox are the obvious potential suitors for a rental first baseman. Boston can be with out Triston Casas all season. San Francisco has gotten nothing out of LaMonte Wade Jr. this yr. They gained’t need to block prime prospect Bryce Eldridge in 2026 however ought to make a short-term add on the place. The Rangers and Mariners would additionally make sense as touchdown spots.
The Orioles would wish a stronger return on Mullins, who could find yourself being the most effective all-around place gamers out there. The lefty-hitting middle fielder takes a .230/.335/.446 line with eight homers into right this moment’s recreation towards Minnesota. Most of that manufacturing got here early within the season. Mullins carried a .278/.412/.515 slash via the tip of April. He’s hitting .119/.119/.286 to date in Might. He’s clearly amidst a skid on the plate, however he nonetheless ranks among the many sport’s best middle fielders total. He’s tied for fourth on the place in homers and ranks eighth in on-base share (minimal 100 plate appearances).
Even when Mullins was punching above his weight via the season’s first few weeks, he’s a top quality participant. He has been a median or higher hitter in 5 consecutive seasons. He has topped 30 stolen bases in three of the final 4 years. The general public metrics are break up on his glove — he charges extra extremely by Statcast’s Outs Above Common than he does within the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved — however there’s little question that he can play middle subject. There’s a dearth of expertise on the place on the commerce market, particularly if Luis Robert Jr. continues to underperform offensively.
Mullins is making $8.725MM in his last season of arbitration management. There’s an honest probability the O’s would make him the qualifying supply if he’s not traded, however a multiple-prospect bundle may very well be superior to 1 compensatory draft choose. The Guardians, Phillies, Mets, Rangers and A’s are only a handful of contenders that might search for an improve in middle subject.
Respective pictures courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas and Gregory Fisher, Imagn Pictures
