All offseason, the discuss across the Baltimore Orioles has been their want to accumulate an ace. After failing to lock down Corbin Burnes, the Orioles’ blossoming core of younger hitters faces an uphill battle with out related help on the pitching entrance. That’s, if there isn’t already an ace on the squad. Certain, an additional elite pitcher would turn out to be useful, however the baseball world has acted as if there’s no expertise taking the mound in Baltimore.
Grayson Rodriguez has a ceiling of that ace Baltimore desperately craves, and it appears to be forgotten within the “doomerism” a couple of failed offseason earlier than the slugfest of the AL East begins. The fitting-hander was 2022’s consensus high pitching prospect, with publications reminiscent of Baseball America giving him a 70-grade potential. His first two seasons have been rocky — yr one was marred by struggles and yr two was tormented by damage — however the potential remains to be immense. We noticed reputable pitch combine adjustments in 2023 and accidents in 2024, which means a clear 2025 may very well be Rodriguez’s ascendancy to stardom.
On paper, Rodriguez appears nice: good launch level, robust fastball, and ample secondaries. A 3.86 ERA and 26.5% strikeout charge is as a lot as anybody needs to be asking for from a 24-year-old pitcher. Nonetheless, it nonetheless appears like there’s extra within the tank for Rodriguez, and he must construct off of 2024 to take a step ahead.
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What the Arsenal Regarded Like in 2024
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Rodriguez has a powerful basis earlier than the ball even leaves his hand, along with his mechanics permitting his launch level to be in an optimum location. Whereas standing at 6’5″, Rodriguez works his means down the mound higher than simply about anybody. He will get 7.3 ft of extension, which is within the 98th percentile for beginning pitchers, placing him across the likes of Bailey Ober and Zack Wheeler. A regular three-quarters arm slot permits Rodriguez to get a low 5.6-feet launch peak regardless of being an imposing determine on the mound.
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Most significantly, this launch level is important for his fastball. The pitch is available in at 96 mph with common trip and above-average run for his arm slot. Altogether, the pitch grades out properly with a 107 Stuff+, Eleventh-best amongst starters final yr (min. 50 innings). Rodriguez locates the pitch within the higher third of the zone 63% of the time, creating an distinctive 1.2 inches of height-adjusted VAA (78th percentile). The peripheral stats look serviceable; a 29.9% CSW% and 53.9% Str-ICR are above common for a starter’s fastball, however the outcomes are drastically completely different.
Regardless of robust pitch traits, hitters had a .291 common and a .413 xSLG on the fastball, which means it gave up hits however was good at stopping important injury. Whereas an “unfortunate” .373 BABIP might drive this, that is two years in a row of horrendous BABIP. 2024 was a step up from 2023’s absurd .430 BABIP, however Rodriguez’s fastball struggles considerably when it isn’t situated completely. Taking a look at his areas and wOBA vs. right-handed hitters, there’s a tiny window for fulfillment.
When the fastball touches the center third of the zone or decrease, righties are simply teeing off on the fastball. Particularly early within the depend, the pitch has sufficient run to behave like a two-seamer however anticipated vertical motion, which permits hitters to make contact 5 % extra often.
In opposition to left-handed hitters, Rodriguez sees significantly extra success, as they solely hit .200 with a .298 xSLG. He’s in a position to find his fastball within the shadow space of the zone far more often and limits injury on pitches contained in the zone.
Rodriguez has a 17.0% swinging-strike charge in opposition to lefties, practically double that in opposition to righties, making his fastball an precise reverse-platoon pitch. It is because his essential secondary pitch is his changeup, which is efficient for each sorts of hitters.
Although his fastball has a subpar motion profile by itself, Rodriguez’s fastball/changeup combo is perhaps the most effective in baseball. Each pitches have 12 inches of horizontal motion with a 14-inch distinction in vertical motion and a 12 mph distinction in velocity. Amongst all starters in 2024, nobody apart from Rodriguez and Spencer Schwellenbach had a ninetieth percentile distinction between velocity and vertical motion of their fastball and first offspeed pitch (Schwellenbach throws a splitter). Together with the similarities of horizontal motion, nobody creates separation like Rodriguez.
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The result’s a 113 Stuff+ changeup that may restrict arduous contact and get whiffs nearly wherever on the plate.
For all the BABIP misfortunes for Rodriguez’s fastball, the changeup had a pristine .211 BABIP in 2024. He solely goes to the pitch 21% of the time, with most changeups being early within the depend to left-handed hitters and late within the depend to right-handed hitters.
Whereas Rodriguez has the changeup as his bread-and-butter secondary, he additionally has two breaking pitches which might be important to success.
His slider, which scouts graded as a future 70-value pitch, took a big step ahead in 2024 as he transitioned from a sweeper to a extra bullet slider. He bumped the pitch from 82 mph to 86 mph, taking off horizontal motion and including a slight drop. The 2024 slider graded out as a 108 Stuff+, a strong however unremarkable determine. Nonetheless, Rodriguez commanded the smaller motion profile higher, which elevated strike charges and whiff charges on the pitch.
The one tradeoff Rodriguez made with the tougher slider was that it was a pitch hitters might do some injury with. Since he had extra command, Rodriguez tried to make use of it extra often in all types of counts when he wanted a strike however received into bother giving up 5 homers. All however one have been in both 0-0 or 0-1 counts.
That is virtually completely a pitch for right-handed hitters, as he throws it 25% of the time to right-handed batters, making it his essential secondary to righties, and solely 2% to lefties.
However, the curveball is principally deployed to left-handed batters (22% utilization) however remains to be used in opposition to right-handed batters (9% utilization). The curveball additionally noticed a form tweak final yr, because it misplaced three inches of drop and an inch of break whereas gaining about one mph to 81. Rodriguez primarily makes use of the pitch for referred to as strikes, however he has erratic command of the pitch thus making it unreliable for whiffs late in at-bats.
He virtually doubled the utilization of the pitch final season, whereas solely seeing a 3 % lower in referred to as strike charge. It’s an efficient but unspectacular software within the arsenal, although it did run into injury the third time by means of the order.
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How Does He Take the Leap in 2025
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General, Rodriguez must construct an strategy round significantly fewer fastballs. Although it’s a very good pitch, hitters have probably the most success in opposition to it, and it’s not elite sufficient to warrant 48% utilization. It’s okay to depend on the fastball early, however Rodriguez had a 6.11 ERA within the third time by means of the order (TTO) whereas throwing fastballs 42.7% of the time. Moreover, the curveball will get crushed later in video games too, as hitters are additionally sitting on it whereas Rodriguez makes an attempt to steal a strike with the pitch.
Going primarily to sliders and changeups, his finest pitches for lacking bats, can permit Rodriguez to maintain hitters off steadiness, and he can deploy the fastball when vital.
The opposite means that Rodriguez can extend his outings and forestall contact from getting away from him is to deliver again his cutter. He threw a cutter in 2023 that struggled mightily: it had a 5.8% swinging-strike charge, .315 AVG, and .724 xSLG. His efficiency improved considerably as soon as he reduce the pitch out of his arsenal in 2023, however it’s a necessary software for him to assist mitigate arduous contact.
Cutters are a platoon-neutral pitch, which means they work for all hitters, and are good for stopping arduous contact as a result of they’ve sufficient velocity to appear to be a fastball however transfer sufficient to flee the barrel. The issue with Rodriguez’s 2023 cutter was that it was too far off the fastball and wasn’t tricking hitters.
There was a 7.5 mph distinction between the fastball and cutter, which was within the seventh percentile for variations between a pitcher’s major fastball and their cutter. If he might deliver again the cutter and up its velocity to the 92-94 mph mark, which is round common, it might make the pitch way more engaging for hitters. It additionally completes Rodriguez’s bands of velocity for all of his pitches.
With a full plate of motion varieties and velocities, this problem hitters with virtually all the things. Rodriguez has already flashed ace potential and might persistently miss bats whereas limiting walks. Nonetheless, taking a step ahead in optimizing his arsenal might give the Orioles the number-one pitcher they’re craving.
