Precisely one yr in the past at this time, the Orioles and Brewers agreed to the blockbuster commerce that despatched Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. Since Burnes has now moved on to signal with the Diamondbacks and the O’s didn’t win a playoff sport within the star right-hander’s lone season at Camden Yards, debates could rage for years about who “received” the commerce, even when an argument can actually be made that each groups made off nicely.
From the Orioles’ perspective, there was clear profit to putting in an ace like Burnes atop the crew’s rotation. On paper, a frontline pitcher was the ultimate piece wanted to place a younger, deep, and proficient O’s crew excessive as a World Collection contender, even when issues didn’t finally work out for Baltimore in October. Giving up Joey Ortiz, DL Corridor, and a Aggressive Steadiness Spherical-A draft choose for one season of Burnes’ providers was seen as an appropriate commerce package deal, for the reason that notion was that the Orioles may afford to be somewhat aggressive, given the additional depth afforded by their very deep farm system.
Quick ahead a yr, and the Orioles (maybe frustratingly to the crew and their followers) discover themselves in roughly the identical spot heading into the 2025 season. Nonetheless searching for a postseason breakout, the O’s haven’t been sitting on their palms, as Tyler O’Neill, Andrew Kittredge, Gary Sanchez, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Charlie Morton have all been signed as free agent additions, boosting the membership’s payroll from roughly $102.5MM in 2024 to a projected $157.3MM in 2025. Such a payroll hike is kind of substantial, however O’Neill is the one a type of gamers signed past subsequent season, because the Orioles haven’t but proven the elevated urge for food for longer-term spending that many anticipated beneath new proprietor David Rubenstein.
The roster because it stands on February 1 nonetheless appears like a powerful one, and the Orioles ought to actually be thought-about favorites to a minimum of attain the playoffs for the third consecutive yr. Nonetheless, if the O’s need to make another splashy transfer and aren’t but prepared to interrupt the financial institution in free company, that leaves the commerce market as GM Mike Elias’ finest route for an improve. Even when Baltimore’s farm system has now been depleted by trades and a number of other gamers gradating out of “prospect” standing and onto the MLB roster, the Orioles even have one other form of one-year-only surplus which may but show helpful in touchdown extra skilled expertise by Opening Day.
Not like within the NFL, NBA, or NHL, Main League Baseball doesn’t enable its groups to commerce draft picks….with one exception. The groups that obtain a bonus choose through the 2 Aggressive Steadiness rounds are allowed to deal that choose away, which has supplied an attention-grabbing wrinkle to commerce discussions for the reason that CB rounds have been instituted previous to the 2017 draft. These bonus picks are allotted to groups that fall throughout the league’s backside 10 in both market measurement or revenues, and the Orioles have certified for an additional CBR choose yearly.
As famous earlier, the Orioles’ willingness to incorporate their CBR-A choose (the thirty fourth general choice within the 2024 draft) was a key part of the Burnes commerce, and the Brewers used that choose to pick slugging Tennessee first base prospect Brock Burke final July. This offseason noticed the Reds commerce their CBR-A choose to the Dodgers as a part of the Gavin Lux commerce, the Athletics included their CBR-A choose as a part of the commerce package deal that introduced Jeffrey Springs to West Sacramento, and the Diamondbacks despatched Slade Cecconi and their CBR-B choice to the Guardians in alternate for Josh Naylor.
As a result of the groups who qualify for CBR choices change rounds yearly, Baltimore’s additional choose comes within the second Aggressive Steadiness Spherical in 2025, at the moment slotted because the 71st general choice. This implies the Orioles will likely be on the clock six occasions throughout the first 94 picks of the 2025 draft, between their common picks (nineteenth, 59th, 94th) within the first three rounds, their CBR-B choose (71st), and the compensation picks (thirtieth, thirty first) that the membership acquired when Burnes and Anthony Santander signed elsewhere. As a result of the Orioles are a revenue-sharing recipient, and since Burnes and Santander rejected qualifying provides and signed offers price greater than $50MM, the O’s landed these compensatory picks proper after the top of the primary spherical.
The double dose of compensation picks may make the O’s extra probably than to not transfer their CBR-B choose, simply because it’s pretty unusual for a crew to have two certified free brokers depart in the identical offseason. It ought to be famous that the Orioles’ determination to commerce their CBR-A choose for Burnes may’ve been influenced by one other bonus choose the crew acquired in that 2024 draft class. The O’s acquired the thirty second general choose beneath the league’s Prospect Promotion Incentive guidelines, since Gunnar Henderson received the 2023 AL Rookie of the 12 months Award after being ranked throughout the prime 100 of preseason prospect lists from (a minimum of two of) MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN.com.
Even when a CBR-B choose doesn’t carry as a lot worth because the CBR-A range dealt for Burnes, the Diamondbacks’ Naylor commerce is proof {that a} CBR-B choose can nonetheless carry again some high quality expertise. Hypothetically, the Orioles may look to copy the Burnes commerce as carefully as potential, and embody their CBR choose as half of a bigger commerce package deal for an ace pitcher. Even when the Orioles may technically have a rotation surplus if all their starters are wholesome, it isn’t clear if any of Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, Morton, or Sugano are essentially the pitcher you’d need beginning the primary sport of a playoff sequence.
A point out of Dylan Stop right here is unavoidable. The Padres are recognized to be gauging curiosity in Stop, who (like Burnes) is a yr away from free company. Baltimore had curiosity in Stop final winter earlier than the White Sox dealt him to San Diego, and that curiosity prolonged into this offseason, because the Orioles reportedly noticed a Stop commerce as a pivot transfer in case Burnes signed with a brand new crew. Additional extending the comparability to Burnes, the O’s may nicely be viewing Stop as one other one-year rental, with an eye fixed in direction of recouping one other compensatory choose subsequent winter if and when Stop have been to depart in free company.
It will clearly take extra than simply the CBR-B choose to acquire Stop, however simply having a tradable draft choice offers the O’s an attention-grabbing chip that almost all different groups linked to Stop can’t supply. Of the groups publicly recognized to have curiosity in Stop, Minnesota is the one different membership who has a CBR choice — the Twins choose in CBR-A this yr, so their possession of the thirty sixth general choose may even give them a leg up over the Orioles. Nevertheless, what the Twins don’t have is 2 additional compensatory picks increasing their general draft pool, so Minnesota may nicely be much less prepared to maneuver its CBR choose than the Orioles.
No matter whether or not the CBR-B choose is traded or not, Baltimore is already going to be getting a heck of a bounty again within the 2025 draft. Choosing six prospects throughout the prime 94 is a terrific approach to assist restock a thinned-out farm system, however deciding on 5 prospects and buying and selling the 71st general choose for some instant assist may be the more practical approach of managing the Orioles’ long-term and short-term targets.
