To be able to bolster their Grayson Rodriguez-less beginning rotation, the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a one-year contract price $5.25 million with free agent beginning pitcher Kyle Gibson. The 37-year-old Gibson pitched for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2024, posting a 4.24 ERA and a 4.42 FIP in 30 begins over 169 2/3 innings, good for 1.5 WAR.
In 2023, the Orioles signed Gibson as a veteran arm who may eat innings, a helpful goal for a rebuilding staff transitioning to competition and in search of to buttress a patchwork rotation. This was a job that Gibson completed efficiently that season, scarfing down 192 innings for a 101-win staff that lacked another well-established beginning pitchers. After the emergence of Kyle Bradish and Rodriguez’s comparatively profitable large league debut, the O’s noticed much less want for a caretaker starter in 2024. So Gibson moved on to St. Louis, a staff that was stung in 2023 by the truth that practically each beginning pitcher besides Miles Mikolas missed important time because of accidents. Whereas the 2024 Cardinals didn’t get again to to the playoffs, their failures may hardly be pinned on Gibson, who put up his typical workhorse season, ending second in innings on the Cardinals, simply behind Mikolas.
With the Cardinals in transition and seemingly decided to do nothing of substance in the course of the offseason, they made little try to retain Gibson’s providers for a second 12 months. As one of many final remaining beginning pitchers in free company with a résumé to command a significant league contract, it was possible solely a matter of time till Gibson discovered a suitor to signal him. He joins a well-recognized membership going through a well-recognized scenario, because the Orioles are as soon as once more coping with a skinny beginning rotation. Corbin Burnes is gone, Rodriguez is out with a triceps harm, and Bradish isn’t anticipated again for some time after present process Tommy John surgical procedure final June. Over the winter, Baltimore added two-time All-Star Charlie Morton and NPB veteran Tomoyuki Sugano to make up for the lack of Burnes, however contemplating Morton is 41 and Sugano is a 35-year-old management pitcher who hasn’t but performed within the U.S., each of them include loads of danger hooked up.
The hope for the Orioles is that Gibson turns into unimportant to the roster someday in the summertime, as Rodriguez, Trevor Rogers, and prospect Chayce McDermott (no. 71 total, 50 FV) return from accidents, with Bradish probably due again within the second half, however this might characterize a best-case situation. Gibson’s contract displays this uncertainty; based mostly on innings and video games began, he can earn simply over one other $1.5 million in incentives.
Gibson doesn’t have a fastball that flirts with 100 mph or a type of loopy 90-mph changeups that might have appeared like a tall story 30 years in the past. What he does do is take advantage of out of a six-pitch repertoire, leading to a greater pitcher than one would possibly anticipate from his middling stuff. Star-level performances get groups to the playoffs, however so too do gamers with immaculate attendance. It could appear bizarre, however Gibson’s 112 wins is sufficient to rank him sixth amongst lively pitchers, and he additionally ranks seventh in begins and eighth in innings. These three metrics aren’t indications of excellence, however competence, and that additionally has worth.
ZiPS Projection – Kyle Gibson
Yr
W
L
ERA
FIP
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
$
2025
7
8
4.55
4.53
25
25
138.3
143
70
19
54
117
87
0.8
$4.6M
ZiPS Projection Percentiles – Kyle Gibson
Percentile
ERA+
ERA
WAR
95%
117
3.41
2.7
90%
108
3.69
2.2
80%
100
3.97
1.7
70%
95
4.17
1.4
60%
91
4.39
1.0
50%
87
4.55
0.8
40%
84
4.73
0.5
30%
79
5.02
0.1
20%
75
5.30
-0.2
10%
69
5.78
-0.8
5%
64
6.22
-1.3
Suffice it to say, ZiPS isn’t terribly enthusiastic about Gibson’s 2025, however then once more, that’s inappropriate. The O’s are not rebuilding or on the cusp of competing; they’re anticipated to contend for the AL East title. For lots of groups, signing Gibson can be a nasty thought, as they’d get much more out of signing a fourth starter with actual upside relatively than an innings-eater in his late 30s. However for the O’s, they’re getting the correct pitcher on the proper time, and principally for the correct value. Regardless of my curmudgeonly inclinations, I can’t discover a good cause to complain about that.
