The Incredible Platooning Jorge Polanco

Jorge Polanco has at all times been hitter. He has a profession 111 wRC+, and since he began getting common enjoying time in 2016, he’s completed with a wRC+ under 100 solely thrice, considered one of which was the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. However he’s performed 20 video games up to now this season, and he’s by no means had a 20-game stretch fairly like this. He’s batting .377 with a 233 wRC+. How is Polanco – whereas injured – working the fifth-best xwOBA in baseball and second-best total batting line?

As I discussed, Polanco isn’t 100%. He underwent surgical procedure in October to restore his left patellar tendon, and soreness in that knee has already value him a few video games this season. Polanco has additionally been coping with a minor indirect pressure, which has stored him from hitting right-handed since March 31. Polanco has a profession 118 wRC+ as a lefty and a 95 wRC+ as a righty. That’s a official platoon break up, nevertheless it’s not large enough that we must always have anticipated him to show into Babe Ruth as soon as he stop batting right-handed. Furthermore, you must think about that the damage is slowing him down no less than barely, even from the left facet. Perhaps I’m flawed right here, nevertheless it’s simply exhausting to consider that any baseball swing might be fully unaffected by an indirect damage.

Simply to recap, Polanco has a minor damage. He’s solely batting left-handed and (except one plate look that ended with a strikeout) solely dealing with righties. He’s additionally DHing and getting days off to guard the indirect. Oh, and he’s been the very best hitter in baseball (non-Aaron Choose division). So let’s determine what’s happening. We’ll begin with the fundamentals. Listed here are Polanco’s numbers from every of the 5 most up-to-date seasons.

Initially, Polanco is placing the ball in play an awfully excessive share of the time. He’s working a stroll price that’s lower than half of his profession mark. His strikeout price is lower than half of what he posted in both of the previous two seasons. Final yr, he put the ball in play 60% of the time. This yr he’s at 84%. He’s swinging so much and making loads of contact. He’s hitting for a excessive BABIP, and I’m certain he’s benefitting from a little bit of batted ball luck, however most of this manufacturing is in regards to the .362 remoted slugging share. That’s to not say that we’re not coping with small pattern dimension luck right here — I positively suppose we’re, and we’ll get to that later — however for now, the takeaway is that Polanco has grow to be way more aggressive on the plate and began slugging extra. That’s what’s happening right here. Polanco is swinging so much, and he’s actually, actually slugging.

He’s additionally swinging the bat tougher. To some extent that is sensible. In the course of the very finish of the 2023 season, Polanco had a 71.2-mph common bat pace from the left facet. That dropped to 70.2 throughout 2024, when he was restricted by a collection of knee and hamstring accidents that culminated within the surgical procedure. He was actually banged up. This season, he’s as much as 71.6 mph. Nevertheless, that’s nonetheless under the league common. Polanco could also be again to regular, and even barely higher than he was in 2023 (a yr when he additionally handled some knee and hamstring points), nevertheless it’s not like he’s instantly was Giancarlo Stanton. His bat pace is okay, however by itself, it’s not the rationale he’s unstoppable.

So Polanco is swinging tougher, and he’s very positively hitting the ball tougher.

His 56.9% hard-hit price from the left facet is means higher than something he’s performed over the course of a complete season, and even over a single month (except June 2024, when he performed in simply 5 video games). So is he swinging at higher pitches? Is he hammering fastballs? Probably not. As an alternative, he’s hammering the whole lot prefer it’s a fastball.

That is the place issues get bizarre. Regardless of this drastic improve in exhausting contact, Polanco’s Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity has principally stayed the identical for the final a number of years. So though he’s hitting the ball exhausting way more typically and his common EV is means up, it’s not like he’s discovered a brand new degree of energy. And as I discussed, it’s not like his plate self-discipline is a lot better; he’s hitting the ball tougher, however not as a result of he’s selecting higher pitches to hit. He’s simply squaring the whole lot up, particularly offspeed pitches. As a lefty, Polanco has a .582 wOBA and .586 xwOBA towards offspeed stuff this season. His earlier highs have been each beneath .335. Polanco remains to be whiffing at roughly 28% of the offspeed and breaking pitches he sees, identical to he at all times has. However within the 27 instances he has made contact, he’s crushed the ball.

When you’ve been watching him this season, you’ll know that Polanco additionally appears completely different on the plate. He got here up in 2015, and in 2019, he switched to a really open stance. That stance had stayed kind of the identical through the years. Till this season.

He has held onto that slight rigidity, by which he leans again together with his shoulders rolled additional away from the pitcher than his hips. Nevertheless, he not has an open stance. In truth, by the point the pitcher releases the ball, his stance is barely closed. He’s additionally extra upright within the field, and his arms are beginning out a lot nearer to his ear.

The mechanics are completely different too, quieter. Polanco’s leg kick is way more refined, and he’s drastically diminished his hand load. The 2 photos under are from the second the pitcher releases the ball. Each pitches are four-seamers over the center that he crushed. Within the photograph on the left, which exhibits a plate look from 2024, you’ll be able to’t see Polanco’s arms in any respect, however you’ll be able to see his elbow sticking means again behind him. His bat is wrapped, in order that the barrel is dealing with the pitcher barely. The photograph on the fitting is from this season, and there are Polanco’s arms, just about proper the place they began out. At this level, his leg isn’t raised in any respect.

Gamers make these sorts of adjustments when their aim is to prioritize timing and quickness. It is a easier swing, and often the aim of simplifying your swing is to be sure to’re on time. It helps you prioritize quickness. It appears to be working. In keeping with Baseball Savant’s new batting stance metrics, Polanco’s common level of contact is farther out in entrance of house plate.

In all, it makes for a shorter stroke, and the change on the finish is much like the change firstly. You possibly can see it within the full swings above. When Polanco finishes his swing this season, his observe by means of tends to not whip him round fairly as far. He appears extra linear, much less rotational than he did final season. He’s counting on shorter, extra explosive actions reasonably than longer ones. That helps clarify why, despite the fact that he’s seen such a drastic enchancment in bat pace, his common swing size has solely elevated by simply over an inch.

I ought to cease for a second and be clear that I’m simply speaking about Polanco’s left-handed swing right here. His right-handed stance has by no means been fairly so open, and he hasn’t closed it this yr. Nevertheless, he has appeared to simplify his load in the identical means from the fitting facet.

Time for one more fast recap. Polanco is more healthy, kind of. He’s drastically overhauled his swing to prioritize quickness, and he’s gained loads of bat pace with out making his swing for much longer. He’s making contact farther out in entrance of the plate, hitting the ball tougher, and hitting much more line drives. It’s not simply the road drives both. His launch angles typically have grow to be way more concentrated.

That’s at all times factor. Polanco is never hitting lazy fly balls or routine groundouts. Nevertheless, I want to finish by throwing some chilly water on what you’ve simply learn. It’s at all times thrilling whenever you see a swing change that pairs up so neatly with the participant’s outcomes, however I must level out a number of issues.

The primary is clear. Regression will come for Polanco in some unspecified time in the future. I don’t suppose anyone is anticipating him to maintain hanging out in Aaron Choose territory indefinitely. He’ll cool off in some unspecified time in the future, and his huge 29% HR/FB price will come right down to Earth. As a result of he’s by no means strolling and by no means hanging out, his recreation is extraordinarily BABIP dependent, which results in streakiness, identical to we’ve been seeing. Presumably, he’s not simply going to hit scalding line drives eternally, as a result of individuals have a tendency not to try this.

The second is that the graph I confirmed you firstly of this chart was barely deceptive. It was a 20-day rolling common of his wRC+, and it made it very clear that Polanco had by no means had a 20-game run just like the one he’s on proper now. He’s by no means even come all that shut. However I must remind you that Polanco is just batting left-handed. He’s sitting towards lefty starters and getting pulled towards lefty relievers. He’s made solely 75 plate appearances this season, and he’s reached 5 plate appearances in a recreation solely 5 instances. So whereas he’s appeared in 20 video games, he’s solely accrued roughly 15 video games’ value of plate appearances. Mainly, I used to be asking the flawed query. The higher one is that this: Has Polanco ever had a 15-game stretch just like the one he’s been on this season? Sure, many instances.

Needless to say Polanco is often a switch-hitter, so every of these different peaks got here whereas he was additionally watering down his efficiency with worse hitting from the fitting facet. For that purpose, I additionally pulled Polanco’s efficiency from simply the left facet of the plate and made my very own 15-day rolling graph of his wOBA.

When you throw out right-handed plate appearances, you see that Polanco has had higher stretches lately. We’re completely seeing one thing nice, however we’re not essentially seeing one thing new. His bat pace is again to roughly the place it was in 2023. He Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity hasn’t modified. His swing-happy method will in all probability meet up with him in some unspecified time in the future as pitchers regulate to it. Based mostly on these metrics, I’m unsure we will persuade ourselves that Polanco is a completely new hitter.

That mentioned, I really like his swing adjustments. I don’t care as a lot about whether or not or not he has an open stance, however I really like that he was capable of simplify his swing a lot with out sacrificing any bat pace. I feel that’s nice and it actually might be affecting his bat path, serving to him exit and assault the ball and contributing to all these squared-up baseballs and line drives. I actually hope Polanco holds onto these features, and I additionally hope he sees an identical enchancment from the fitting facet as soon as he’s totally wholesome. However I feel we’re going to wish a much bigger pattern dimension earlier than we determine if that’s more likely to occur.