Devin Williams’ first five-plus years within the main leagues have been nothing lower than implausible. He gained Rookie of the 12 months within the COVID-shortened 2020 season, when he had an ERA+ of 1,375. (I’m conscious of small pattern sizes and stuff, however that quantity is just too enjoyable to move up). He had an ideal season as Josh Hader’s set-up man in 2021 and acquired even higher when he moved into the nearer position halfway by the 2022 season. Williams’ ERA has elevated yearly from 2021 on. His devastating airbender is, when it’s on, arguably the very best pitch in baseball.
However the Brewers ought to in all probability commerce him.
To be clear, this has nothing to do with Williams’ unlucky meltdown two weeks in the past that handed the Brewers one of many hardest losses in franchise historical past, nor with the bigger overarching proven fact that Williams’ profession postseason ERA is 23.14. He has pitched solely 2 1/3 innings within the postseason, and to let that type of pattern override the 235 spectacular innings we’ve seen within the common season could be, in a phrase, silly.
However a commerce of Williams might be the very best transfer for the long-term way forward for the Milwaukee Brewers. Does it make the crew worse in 2025? Sure, it’s seemingly that the ceiling of subsequent yr’s Brewers could be larger with Williams on the crew. However there are a couple of the reason why buying and selling Williams is, in all chance, the very best transfer for the crew.
Williams will make quite a bit as a free agent after subsequent season, and relievers are dangerous investments.
Listed below are the 5 largest contracts ever given to aid pitchers (with the primary yr of the contract listed):
Edwin Díaz, 5 years, $102 million (2023)
Josh Hader, 5 years, $95 million (2024)
Aroldis Chapman, 5 years, $86 million (2017)
Kenley Jansen, 5 years, $80 million (2017)
Mark Melancon, 4 years, $62 million (2017)
How have these offers gone?
Díaz missed 2023 with a torn ACL (admittedly a freak damage) and pitched simply higher than league common over 54 appearances in 2024, and he has been up-and-down within the postseason.
Within the first yr of his five-year deal, Hader saved 34 video games however had an ERA of three.80, which equated to only a 104 ERA+.
Chapman was strong over the size of his contract with the Yankees and among the many finest closers in baseball in 2018 and 2019. He signed a contract extension that took him by 2022, however he fell off badly that yr.
Jansen was wonderful within the first and final years of his huge contract, however the three years within the center ranged from “positive, I assume” to “not dangerous.”
The Melancon contract didn’t go nicely. He was dangerous in 2017 and simply okay in 2018 and 2019; in the course of the ’19 season, San Francisco traded him to Atlanta, the place he did have a very good yr in a small pattern in the course of the shortened ’20 season.
The hit fee on these contracts is, perhaps, 50%? The jury continues to be out on the Díaz and Hader offers, however the early returns have been doubtful, the Melancon contract was a nasty resolution, and whereas the Yankees and Dodgers acquired largely good outcomes from these contracts, Chapman and Jansen are (type of sneakily) two of the very best relievers of all time, and the Yankees and Dodgers can afford such luxuries.
The purpose right here is that this: Devin Williams, barring one thing going significantly mistaken subsequent season, goes to get a contract that rivals or surpasses these, and the probabilities that he lives as much as that contract appear no higher than about 50%.
The Brewers have a backup plan, they usually know it really works.
Williams didn’t make his 2024 debut till July 28. From the start of the season till that point, Trevor Megill made 35 appearances, pitched to a 2.41 ERA and a pair of.75 FIP, held opponents to a .571 OPS, and saved 20 video games in 22 possibilities. Megill then missed a while to start with of August and he gave up three runs in his first recreation again on August 21, however from August 23 till the tip of the season he had a 1.50 ERA and a pair of.50 FIP in 12 innings and held opponents to a .377 OPS.
Megill has closer-y stuff; his fastball sits within the excessive 90s and he will get a number of whiffs and strikeouts. Even in earlier seasons earlier than he had a daily position, the underlying numbers have been encouraging. Megill has the stuff to be a better and he proved, over greater than half a season, that he can do the job. He’s additionally getting into simply his first arbitration yr in 2025, so the Brewers have three extra years of crew management.
There are different choices, too, that might be within the pipeline. Craig Yoho had an unbelievably dominant minor league season in 2024 (0.94 ERA, 15.8 Okay/9 in 57 2/3 innings) and he’s on the doorstep of the foremost leagues; he ought to be in competitors for a bullpen spot in spring coaching. Yoho wouldn’t be a conventional nearer; he doesn’t boast an enormous fastball, however as a substitute baffles hitters with excellent off-speed stuff, together with one of the vital intriguing changeups within the minor leagues. But when that arsenal interprets, he may completely be the subsequent nice Brewers nearer.
There’s additionally Jacob Misiorowski, who does have extra conventional nearer stuff. The Brewers will seemingly have an interest to see whether or not they can get him to the large leagues as a starter, however he’s positively acquired the kind of repertoire that would translate right into a high-leverage aid position.
Williams ought to command a excessive worth on the commerce market.
That is the ultimate piece of the puzzle. Williams ought to be in demand; regardless of the tough finish to the postseason (wherein he was presumably tipping his pitches), He had an excellent 2024 season and would definitely be the very best out there reliever in baseball. Groups at all times want aid pitching, and there are a variety of contending groups that might probably be prepared to half with good prospects to get Williams.
The return for high-leverage relievers looks like it may be in all places, however a small sampling from 2024 exhibits that Miami acquired their new No. 4 prospect (in response to MLB Pipeline) within the A.J. Puk commerce and their No. 5 prospect (plus numbers 11 and 23) within the commerce of Tanner Scott. The Los Angeles Angels acquired their new No. 3 prospect (George Klassen) and No. 8 (Sam Aldegheri) for Carlos Estévez, and three of Oakland’s high 30 (Nos. 6, 16, and 28) came visiting within the Lucas Erceg commerce.
With apologies to Estévez, none of these gamers are in the identical stratosphere as Williams. Even with only a yr of crew management, we’re speaking about severe prospect capital right here, gamers that might be on a timeline extra according to Jackson Chourio’s.
If the Brewers get affords for Williams that provide them the kind of return that might replenish the highest finish of their farm system (after graduating so many gamers previously two years), they need to do it.
Conclusions
The Brewers can afford to maintain Devin Williams in 2025; his $10.5 million crew choice isn’t a significant monetary hurdle. However investing some huge cash in Williams will not be a wise long-term use of sources for a crew just like the Brewers. They’ve a confirmed substitute in Trevor Megill and extra arms prepared to maneuver into different roles within the bullpen. They need to be capable of get a very good return for him on the commerce market.
Being a fan of a lower-payroll crew just like the Milwaukee Brewers will be irritating, however this can be a case the place I imagine the good transfer is to maneuver on, no matter whether or not the Brewers may have the cash to supply Williams an enormous free-agent contract after subsequent season. It’s been an ideal run for Williams in Milwaukee, however there’s a very good probability he’s thrown his final pitch in a Brewers uniform.
