The best hitter at Kauffman Stadium the past five years is a free agent – should the Royals sign him?

After I began exploring potential free brokers the Kansas Metropolis Royals may goal with lower than a month till pitchers and catchers report, the same old suspects got here to thoughts. Outfielder Anthony Santander appeared like an important match, particularly with stories suggesting he may accept a short-term deal this offseason. Third baseman Alex Bregman’s elite ceiling may make him the proper operating mate for Bobby Witt Jr. on the left facet of the infield. After which there’s the worldwide market—the place the Royals have traditionally been minor gamers—posing a chance to put money into top-tier expertise like right-hander Roki Sasaki. These are the sorts of gamers who may enhance almost any MLB roster.

However nuance at all times complicates actuality. Kansas Metropolis doesn’t have the payroll flexibility to signal gamers like Bregman or Santander, not to mention compete for Sasaki’s companies, which could require extra worldwide bonus pool cash than the Royals can allocate. Even choices one tier under these names may stretch Kansas Metropolis’s monetary limits. That’s simply the financial actuality of the sport. Most MLB house owners are billionaires, however they didn’t get there by making poor investments. Why would they pour extreme cash into payroll except that they had money to burn? (Taking a look at you, Steve Cohen.)

For Kansas Metropolis, additional roster enhancements this offseason are prone to come via frugality—by way of trades, minor-league free-agent gambles, or reliance on inside growth. It’s the Royals’ approach, because it has been for a lot of the franchise’s historical past.

With this in thoughts, let’s take into account the Royals’ actuality. Kauffman Stadium isn’t a ballpark the place each participant thrives. Yankee Stadium’s dwelling run-friendly dimensions don’t translate to the huge expanse of Kauffman’s outfield. Conversely, high-contact hitters with velocity usually flourish, turning singles into doubles and stretching doubles into triples. This quirky, distinctive dynamic is certainly one of baseball’s most fascinating (and sometimes irritating) options. As Vinnie Pasquantino humorously recommended, possibly transferring the fences in at Kauffman would assist, however the park’s format stays a vital consideration for free-agent suits—particularly as Kansas Metropolis inches towards a possible new stadium.

Evaluating present Royals dwelling and highway splits gives some perception, however assessing potential free brokers requires inspecting how their talent units translate to Kansas Metropolis’s distinctive dimensions. Even transient publicity to Kauffman Stadium, via visiting appearances, can reveal a participant’s skill to achieve its setting. Surprisingly, one present free agent stands out as probably the most efficient hitters at Kauffman Stadium over the previous 5 seasons.

To search out this reply, I set parameters for my search. Hundreds of gamers have logged plate appearances at Kauffman, however I centered on hitters with a minimum of 30 plate appearances on the stadium between Opening Day 2019 and the tip of 2024. This pattern measurement gives sufficient information for analysis whereas filtering out small-sample anomalies, like a single scorching-hot sequence (taking a look at you, Julio Rodríguez).

Subsequent, I prioritized batted-ball efficiency quite than on-base abilities. Walks are worthwhile however translate constantly throughout all parks. As a substitute, I wished to know which gamers excel when placing the ball in play. Utilizing FanGraphs’ splits device, I filtered for efficiency on “balls in play.” Whereas not an ideal metric, it supplies a robust basis for figuring out hitters whose batted-ball profiles align with Kauffman Stadium’s challenges.

The outcomes revealed some intriguing names. Amongst Royals hitters, Witt ranks third, whereas Drew Waters’ 196 wRC+ leads all Kansas Metropolis gamers on this break up. Nelson Velázquez, who delivered a red-hot rookie season, additionally stands out, offering some hope for development in 2025.

The non-Royals record yielded equally stunning outcomes. Santander ranks second, boasting a staggering 328 wRC+ at Kauffman and an absurd 1.043 slugging proportion—not simply from dwelling runs, however from maximizing contact. But, he isn’t the chief. One batter stands alone atop this record, providing a stunning but compelling free-agent goal for Kansas Metropolis.

Right here’s how the highest canine ranks on batted balls in Kauffman Stadium—and also you’re going to love this.

You’re going to love that he’s a free agent as soon as once more, and his 2024 workforce declined his $8 million choice, making his anticipated 2025 contract properly throughout the Royals’ vary.

You’re going to love that, whereas he’s primarily performed first base, he additionally has intensive expertise within the nook outfield. In reality, he’d probably be an improve over both MJ Melendez or Hunter Renfroe in that function—assuming his profession 5 Outs Above Common as an outfielder holds up in Kauffman Stadium.

What you’re not going to love is his identify: Joey Gallo.

For informal baseball followers, Gallo’s identify may not ring a bell. However for these conversant in him, the repute he brings. The profession 38% strikeout fee. The plate method that would make Nick Pratto look affected person by comparability. The monstrous exit velocities that when pegged him because the Texas Rangers’ subsequent nice slugger. Gallo’s boom-or-bust profile has at all times been polarizing, and it hit a low level in 2024. Restricted to simply 76 video games with the Washington Nationals, he posted a career-worst 76 wRC+, a efficiency that made Washington’s determination to say no his mutual choice a straightforward one. Now, Gallo is trying to find what could possibly be his sixth workforce in 5 seasons.

If solely he performed in Kansas Metropolis final yr.

For reference, right here is Joey Gallo’s spray chart from his 33 plate appearances throughout 15 video games at Kauffman Stadium. As a notoriously pull-happy hitter, Gallo’s method has labored simply effective towards Royals pitching.

Whereas fee stats usually inform the story, Gallo’s counting stats in Kansas Metropolis are price noting too. His 5 dwelling runs at Kauffman are tied for sixth-most amongst visiting batters over the previous 5 seasons. And that pink dot in middle subject? It’s precisely so far as you assume—a 450-foot blast off Mike Minor in 2021. That homer additionally highlights a key element this evaluation doesn’t absolutely account for: the standard of Royals pitching throughout his visits.

Whereas the Royals made vital strides with their pitching workers final season, Kansas Metropolis’s dwelling pitching efficiency over the previous 5 years has been abysmal. Since Opening Day 2019, Royals pitchers have posted a 6.37 ERA at dwelling, permitting a .372 wOBA to opposing hitters. For all of the discuss Kauffman Stadium being robust for dwelling run hitters, Royals pitchers have allowed an 11.2% HR/FB fee at dwelling—above the common for visiting pitchers and simply shy of the league-wide 13% fee.

Gallo’s dwelling runs at Kauffman got here off the next Royals pitchers:

Mike Minor
Homer Bailey
Amir Garrett
Nicky Lopez (sure, pitching in aid)
Dylan Coleman

Not precisely a murderers’ row by Royals requirements. This contextual asterisk is price contemplating when evaluating Gallo’s success in Kansas Metropolis. Has his efficiency at Kauffman been extra a mirrored image of weak pitching than an ideal match for the park? It’s a sound query.

However right here’s the true difficulty: is the Royals’ outfield so strong that this asterisk ought to disqualify Gallo from consideration? The irritating actuality is that Kansas Metropolis’s outfield choices—particularly on the plate—are severely restricted. As of now, it seems Melendez and Renfroe will open the 2025 season because the Royals’ nook outfielders. Each had been clear negatives offensively and defensively final season, and the present roster doesn’t supply viable competitors for both participant heading into spring coaching.

Sure, Gallo is flawed—his excessive strikeout fee and streaky manufacturing have been properly documented—however so are the Royals’ present outfielders. Taking a low-dollar flyer on Gallo may be removed from an optimum resolution, however it may nonetheless characterize a marginal improve for a workforce that desperately wants extra offensive firepower.

Royals followers deserve higher. After years of lackluster drafting and growth, compounded by below-average payroll funding, Kansas Metropolis wants extra substantial and sustained roster upgrades. Final yr’s postseason berth and income development ought to have paved the way in which for multi-year investments in gamers like Bregman, Santander, or different top-tier free brokers. These are the strikes that elevate each the on-field product and clubhouse tradition.

Nonetheless, the fact of the Royals’ present spending method suggests they’re extra prone to make minor gambles to spherical out the roster earlier than heading to Arizona. Gallo could possibly be one such gamble. The arid Arizona air may make his spring coaching numbers look higher than they’re, however his monitor document at Kauffman Stadium supplies a minimum of some motive for optimism. If Kansas Metropolis needs so as to add slugging potential to its roster, few choices inside their monetary attain supply a better ceiling than Joey Gallo.