Let’s begin this off the best way any baseball article ought to: By speaking a couple of participant who’s in any other case irrelevant to the remainder of the article for the sake of a metaphor. Image Bobby Witt Jr. taking a lead off the bottom. The pitcher begins his stretch and Witt takes off, the catcher throws and Witt slides into the bag. Do you assume he stole the bottom efficiently? When you guessed sure, as it’s best to have, you’d have a 72.1% probability of being proper, that was Witt’s success price this season. Preserve that quantity in thoughts once I inform you that Jack Kochanowicz threw his sinker 72.4% of the time this season. Pulling from the samples, you’ve gotten a greater probability of a random Kochanowicz pitch being a sinker, than a Witt steal try being profitable.
The one different starter who has a singular pitch he throws greater than 60% of the time is Ben Brown along with his fastball at 62.7%, which appears measly compared. Usually, starters simply don’t do that. Relievers can get away with it as a result of they don’t should undergo the order a number of occasions, and even when a hitter is anticipating a man like Emmanuel Clase to throw his cutter, they often have higher stuff than starters anyway.
The vital query to ask is whether or not or not this technique is working, or can work, for Kochanowicz. No. The reply isn’t any. His 3.99 ERA seems good however his underlying numbers aren’t good. As a result of pitch he throws so typically being a sinker, his Okay% is an appallingly low 9.4%. There hasn’t been a pitcher with a Okay% that low throughout as many innings as Kochanowicz threw this season since Blaine Boyer in 2016. Even when he have been managing contact in addition to he was trying to, getting punchouts so sparsely is an issue. Not all is misplaced although. Kochanowicz does produce other pitches, good pitches even. His command of them might use work, however that’s true of most rookie pitchers.
The Arsenal
As established, Kochanowicz throws his sinker quite a bit. Whereas he wants to scale back its utilization, it’s at the very least an excellent basis for the remainder of his arsenal. Taller pitchers have a built-in benefit for his or her sinkers, as they’ll by default are inclined to have increased launch factors. This creates a steeper angle for the pitch, which results in extra floor balls.
At 6’7”, 228 lbs, he’s acquired the identical listed measurements as fellow L.A. athlete Kawhi Leonard. So whereas his launch top is across the league common, he does it with a 29° arm angle at launch, which is decrease than common. This results in his fastball’s spin course being decrease down the axis, giving it much less rise and extra run. Including to that is his means to impart seam-shifted wake on his sinker, turning it right into a bowling ball of a pitch that hitters battle to get underneath, even once they’re anticipating it. There wasn’t a single sinker within the main leagues this yr with much less iVB at the next launch than Kochanowicz’s. He additionally throws it within the zone aggressively, almost 60% of the time, which contributes to his low stroll price. This makes him the last word high-event pitcher, for higher or worse. So whereas it is probably not worthy of being thrown on the price he’s been utilizing it, it’s a robust base for him to work off of.
His curveball strikes extra like a slider however its spin exercise and classification lead me to consider he’s utilizing a curveball/sweeper grip for it. Given his supination bias and skill to get excessive spin charges on the breaking ball it’s a bit shocking he doesn’t have one thing sweepier as his main breaking ball. Perhaps it’s one thing that might be achieved with a unique grip. Regardless, because it stands it’s a superbly high-quality breaking ball, with sufficient sweep, energy, and depth to overlook bats if he might cease throwing it in dangerous spots. His means to zone it’s spectacular however he isn’t getting known as strikes as a result of hitters are in everlasting swing mode anticipating him to throw a sinker within the zone. In spite of everything, that’s what he normally does. The dearth of whiffs is probably going because of dangerous areas, one thing I anticipate him to wash up with time. It’s a superb breaking ball. He might most likely enhance upon it from a stuff perspective, however he could not have to.
Kochanowicz’s 4-seam has to potential to work by means of it not being his sinker and that shocking hitters. I’ve coated pitchers with this type of fastball combo earlier than. In a vacuum, his 4-seam has horrible motion. However he repeats his arm motion fairly nicely, they usually spin on an identical axis with substantial variations in vertical motion, so he can miss some bats with it. It ought to certainly not develop into his main fastball, however he might afford to work it in a bit extra, particularly above the zone.
Kochanowicz’s changeup is much like lots of changeups you see out of heavy SSW sinker guys. It has the potential to operate as a result of it seems like his fastball out of the hand with its spin axis however its motion is so much like the sinker that it should operate solely on deception and velocity separation, in addition to his command of it, the latter of which has appeared questionable within the small pattern of them he’s thrown. Different pitchers with comparable changeups have made it work, so I’m not ruling it out for him. It’s difficult as a result of what makes his sinker nice winds up additionally being what holds his changeup again a bit. He might at all times attempt a kick change, which might most likely get screwball motion given his arm slot and present spin course for his changeup, but in addition suggesting that pitch for each pitcher could be lazy on my half.
The Path Ahead
Greater than something, Kochanowicz wants to start out working his different pitches in. Iffy management of them or not, he can’t proceed to be this predictable for hitters. He would additionally profit from including to his arsenal, however we’re working from scratch right here. Usually I’d counsel including a cutter as a bridge pitch between his curve and his sinker, and I nonetheless will, however he wants to make use of them in a manner that might be aided by the inclusion of a bridge pitch first. One thing horizontally impartial might assist open up his arsenal a bit as soon as he begins various his pitches. I additionally wouldn’t thoughts seeing him experiment with a unique breaking ball that makes higher use of his traits. I’m satisfied he might toss something with extra sweep, however I wouldn’t mark that as a precedence.
Kochanowicz is a proficient pitcher. By his fastball alone he’s acquired quite a bit going for him however his different pitches are first rate too, he simply doesn’t use them sufficient. He’s not as a lot of a one-pitch man as his utilization would lead you to consider. He’s very uncooked as a pitcher nonetheless. Because the Angels have been liable to do lately, he was pushed very aggressively by means of the ranks no matter his precise readiness.
This season was the primary time he completed with a better-than-average ERA in his professional profession. It’s vital to do not forget that traits are extra vital than stats when evaluating pitching prospects. That mentioned, these numbers additionally function extra proof that Kochanowicz was punching above his weight class within the majors this yr. His having the ability to scrape by, even with some luck, was spectacular.
This one goes to require substantial endurance. I’d not essentially anticipate Kochanowicz’s actual breakout to return subsequent season. He has a protracted strategy to go to develop his secondaries and sequence them higher. He’s such an fascinating pitcher that I can’t assist however be involved in what he does subsequent. It’s extra than simply novelty although, his sinker is sufficient to mission potential for him, he simply must take the steps to succeed in it.
