Yearly, I conduct an train utilizing a useful and oft-ignored characteristic of Statcast, the Participant Similarity, or “Affiinity” characteristic. This simply takes the general make-up of a participant’s batted ball sorts, resembling barrels, flares,and grounders, and combines them with stroll and strikeout charges and makes use of an algorithm to find out essentially the most related general gamers by the charges alone. This characteristic is context-blind, that means it cares not about taking part in time, platoons, accidents, pace/protection, or pattern measurement, so long as the pattern is large enough for the participant to be added. So whereas I search for comps significantly better than the precise participant, I flag it if the participant had a small pattern, vastly inferior foot pace to his comps, platoon & damage danger.
My system for locating these gamers is fairly messy and primarily simply finds the highest comps for the highest hitters (utilizing Choose and Soto appear to be best) after which works backward till I discover a participant who seems like he doesn’t belong as a comp.
Michael Toglia (1B, Colorado Rockies) – ADP: 167
High Comps: Brent Rooker, Teoscar Hernández, Austin Riley, Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso
Yeah I do know this one is earlier than 200 and sort of dishonest, however I feel I have to put it right here as a result of the entire projection methods are fairly bearish on him, whereas I feel he may very well be a warthoglia. Wait, that sounds unhealthy. Nicely, he undeniably has warts, primarily his strikeout fee. However he hits the snot out of the ball, and Brent Rooker is the same instance of somebody who succeeded regardless of a near-30% strikeout fee simply via high quality of contact.
As well as, his anticipated stats had been higher, which is particularly notable since normally Rockies hitters’ anticipated stats are normally worse than precise stats by margin (.017 of batting common), and his anticipated batting common plus that might have him hitting a strong .250, and naturally extra hits would result in extra homers. Add in the truth that he has above-average stolen base capability for the place, and I feel he’s a possible top-100 decide subsequent yr, along with his energy/pace goodness making up for the relative lack of RBI/R and AVG.
Notice that there could also be some choice bias, as most different gamers sporting a 34% strikeout fee doubtless didn’t keep within the majors lengthy sufficient to be viable for being a comp. Additionally, he does positively have an exploitable situation hitting non-fastballs, and I nonetheless bear in mind this after it introduced down the transient meteoric rise of Daniel Vogelbach many moons in the past. However Toglia doesn’t want an ideal world end result to roughly match and even outperform Josh Naylor (ADP 85), not less than from the ability/pace angle, so take a stroll on the wild swinging aspect.
Jorge Soler (OF, Los Angeles Angels) – ADP: 217
High Comps: Matt Olson, Ian Happ, Christian Walker, Matt Chapman
I really like Soler as a bounce-back candidate, which is sort of bizarre to say as a result of he wasn’t even that unhealthy. Everybody projected he’d do worse on the Giants, and he did, however though his 2024 draft inventory was near Marcell Ozuna, out of the blue, nobody is equally optimistic now that he’s moved to a significantly better park and gained outfield eligibility. His scorching spring has woke up some to his sleeper enchantment, as he rose from a February ADP of 217 to 206.
Olson is one other hitter who had a down yr (not due to park), but his ADP hardly dropped as a constant early third-round decide. Happ and Chapman could seem to be much less thrilling comps since stolen bases had been key to their worth, however don’t neglect that Chapman crushed the ball with glorious barrel charges and OBP, and Happ, because the weakest hitter of the 4, continues to be being drafted over 60 picks forward of Soler. I’m planning to construct a draft technique round getting him because it’s straightforward to overlook him in any other case going when most are focusing on mid-round glob pitchers.
Michael Conforto (OF, New York Mets) – ADP: 272
High Comps: Rafael Devers, Bryce Harper, Matt Olson, Brandon Lowe, Jake Burger
Conforto has already been “found as a sleeper” after getting some Dodgers love, however I’m nonetheless shopping for regardless of his rising value. After I laid out the define for this text, his ADP was 308, and it’s now as much as 272. However in the event you get trigger-shy, take a look at the ADP of his comps. Well being will all the time be a significant query for him as he’s handled some damage principally yearly, however not less than now he has returned to hitting the ball with the sort of authority we dreamed of again in his rookie yr.
It appears that evidently the Dodgers Hype Practice made a cease for Conforto, maybe as a consequence of individuals declaring his taking part in time safety and his superior numbers away from San Francisco’s pitcher haven. He’s nonetheless a high-quality goal at this level in drafts if you might want to increase energy, although if the ADP continues to rise, he is probably not a must-add if you might want to focus as an alternative on a late-game nearer spec, second catcher, or late stolen base play (McCarthy and Friedl).
Tyler Soderstrom (1B, Athletics) – ADP: 275
High Comps: Teoscar Hernández, Mark Vientos, Oneil Cruz, Rafael Devers, Elly De La Cruz
This makes me hungry for some Soderstromboli. Soderstrom misplaced some prospect luster, maybe by struggling in his rookie debut at a younger age, and this higher sophomore marketing campaign comes with the warning that small samples are much less dependable, and his MLB pattern continues to be small. And YET! I feel we have to listen as a result of he’s nonetheless solely 23 and nonetheless rising, stolen bases aren’t a significant component in most of his nice comps, and final of all…the park change!
Even when he was taking part in in Oakland, the gamers in his comps do fairly properly hitting the ball out of pitcher’s parks, and his large enchancment in Z-Contact% considerably improves his projection, even when it does regress a bit. Most projection methods have him hitting 25 homers, and one other yr off catcher may assist him additional give attention to his hitting abilities. And about that… he should qualify as a catcher in your league, and he may acquire that eligibility mid-season with buzz about him being the crew’s emergency catcher. Based mostly on what I count on of his stats, if he had been a catcher, I’d have him above Will Smith and slightly below Sal, Cal, and Willson. And as a primary baseman, I count on him to outproduce nearly each first baseman after decide 225 or so, although the low cost has lessened from his juicy February ADP of 294 to a extra honest 275 March ADP.
Trevor Larnach (OF, Minnesota Twins) – ADP: 348
High Comps: Bryan Reynolds, Bryce Harper, Dominic Smith, Wyatt Langford
His comps are stud, stud, WHAT IN THE WORLD IS FRIGGIN DOM SMITH DOING HERE?!, stud. Larnach was one in every of my favourite sleepers within the second half final yr, as his mediocre floor stats hid the truth that he was hitting the ball tougher than ever whereas succeeding at reducing his strikeout fee from the 30% to the 20% vary. Normally, when an influence hitter tries to make that massive of a contact shift, it’s on the expense of the ability (or vice versa), so this looks like true enchancment. I feel he’s a darkish horse for .250-.260 with 25-30 dwelling runs, and hitting within the cleanup spot towards righties will give him sturdy run manufacturing.
It’s true that the Twins are platoon-happy (I name them the Minnesota Platoowins) however I feel that the injury-prone core of the Twins plus the truth that his platoon splits are much less excessive than others ( you, Wallner) means he may very well be a reduction Kerry Carpenter and get extra at-bats than the projections count on. He was a greater sleeper in early drafts with a depressed February ADP of 348, however he’s nonetheless an awesome worth at his present ADP of 328.
Ben Rice (1B/C, New York Yankees) – ADP: 412
High Comps: J.D. Martinez, Langeliers, Alonso, Walker, Ward, Schwarber, Rooker
Rice I may have counted out as he had a really small pattern, and I’m nonetheless feeling the burn from shopping for into Nelson Velázquez’s large second half of 2023 to search out it was a small-sample mirage. That being stated, his early ADP of 554 was free and about double the ADP Velazquez had. After all, then Stanton’s elbows determined to show into Flubber (RIP Weebo the flying robotic), and LeMahieu obtained damage (properly, extra damage), and Rice obtained penciled in for the lion’s share of taking part in time towards righties. Nonetheless, his present ADP of 412 makes him nonetheless fairly low-cost.
Rice had a roller-coaster debut, but it surely’s necessary to notice that regardless of the late season swoon, he nonetheless had an elite 15% barrel fee and had unhealthy BABIP luck. In spring, he’s hit a number of balls 113+ mph, together with a homer, which provides me religion that, not like Velazquez, Rice’s energy is for actual, and he definitely may have a positive ballpark for that energy. In leagues the place he has catcher eligibility primarily based on minor league video games, he’s infinitely extra precious, and there’s nonetheless an opportunity he may play a handful of video games as an emergency backup to not less than qualify in Yahoo leagues or these with a 5-game minimal.
Jerar Encarnación (OF, San Francisco Giants) – ADP: 377
High Comps: Jonathan Aranda, Mark Vientos, Heliot Ramos, Jesus Sanchez
It’s a disgrace I didn’t publish this after I began it a couple of weeks in the past, as again then Jerar was a MUCH deeper sleeper, clocking in at 559 ADP. I suppose a whole lot of that value melancholy was predicated on not anticipating him to land a beginning function, and the hype has pushed his ADP over 180 ranks to a 377 ADP…but it’s nonetheless low-cost sufficient to strive.
Encarnacion is huge, and so are his flaws in his swing choices, however he does have the time-honored talent of hitting the ball exhausting and much. The taking part in time is probably the most important danger. On condition that Jerar is getting into his bodily prime after being plucked out of the Mexican league, the power-starved Giants will most likely flip to him sooner reasonably than later, and he generally is a sneaky late-round supply of 25 homers even in a platoon.
Honorable Mentions: Jonathan Aranda, Iván Herrera, Jesus Sanchez, J.D. Martinez
