Including Seth Lugo final offseason is likely to be one of the best determination the Royals made for 2024 in case you depend the Ragans commerce as a 2023 transfer. Lugo has proven decisively in two years as a starter that he has what it takes to be quantity two or three starter in any rotation save perhaps the Dodgers and Mariners. That additionally means he’ll choose out of his take care of the Royals on the finish of 2025 if he stays wholesome, so I made a decision to see what I assumed one 12 months of Seth Lugo is likely to be value on the commerce market. I believe such a commerce might make the Royals higher each now and sooner or later in the event that they discover the fitting companion.
In the event you have a look at starters being traded over the past couple of years, there’s a variety of outcomes. I’m going to spotlight a few of these trades right here first and see if we are able to get a really feel for what Lugo might convey.
Dylan Stop
Stop is clearly higher and youthful than Lugo, although the 2023 marketing campaign proper earlier than the commerce was not his greatest. The Padres additionally bought two years quite than the one which Lugo is locked up for. The Padres gave up 4 gamers for him. Drew Thorpe was the large one as a prime 100 prospect on some lists, however additionally they gave up Samuel Zavala, Jairo Iriarte, and Steven Wilson. Zavala is a legit prospect, however very younger and much away from huge league prepared. Iriarte is a dwell arm close to huge league prepared, however I’d guess destined for the bullpen or a fringy quantity 5 starter. Wilson was already a big-league bullpen piece, however appears to be trending the fallacious path. The Royals can’t get this huge of a haul, however half of that for one 12 months of Lugo, perhaps.
Corbin Burnes
That is the opposite man on the record that’s clearly value greater than Lugo primarily based on a stellar monitor document. Baltimore traded for him with one 12 months to free company, so the timing is comparable. The Brewers’ return was Joey Ortiz and DL Corridor together with the thirty fourth decide within the 2024 draft. Ortiz was a close to huge league-ready shortstop with prime 100 rankings and Corridor was a fringe prime 100 man. That’s a reasonably good haul for one 12 months – two stable prospects and a decide.
Brady Singer
Royals followers know this one, however it’s value reminding everybody of it. Jonathan India is a stable huge leaguer and the commerce was two years of Singer for 2 years of India. A commerce of Lugo ought to be capable of get this or extra even with just one 12 months assured.
Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin
Nestor Cortes is an fascinating one this offseason. After 2022 he might need been trying extra like Stop or Burnes, however his final two seasons have taken the shine off for positive. The Yankees needed to throw in Durbin, a speedy utility kind, to get Devin Williams. One 12 months of Cortes was not sufficient to get the elite bullpen arm. Williams may even be a free agent subsequent offseason, however he has been top-of-the-line in baseball out of the pen. Lugo ought to be capable of get fairly a bit multiple 12 months of Devin Williams primarily based on how a lot worth good quantity innings convey. I believe this commerce highlights how rather more starters are valued, even mediocre ones.
Zach Eflin (and money)
Now I believe we’re stepping into the fitting territory value-wise. On the commerce deadline, the Orioles added Eflin for the remainder of 2024 and 2025. Lugo is somewhat older, however coming off a greater season. I believe these two ought to be valued equally. Eflin bought Tampa Bay Mac Horvath, Jackson Baumeister, and Matthew Etzel. Tampa undoubtedly went for quantity right here with two first rate prospects and Etzel, which I’m not positive how precisely to worth. He has been all proper bouncing across the minors for a 12 months and a half, however unsure he tasks as probably being greater than a fourth outfielder. If the Royals opted to go for one prospect over many, this says to me they may get close to the highest 100, although perhaps not into it.
Yusei Kikuchi
One other commerce deadline deal, however only for a rental. Kikuchi has been inconsistent as a significant league pitcher, however was having success on the time of the commerce and for the remainder of the 12 months. That netted him a 3 12 months, $63 million deal this offseason. Within the commerce, Toronto bought again Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido, and Will Wagner. Bloss had just lately been within the prime 100 of a few locations, and appeared like loads to provide for Kikuchi. This deal makes me hope for extra out of a possible Lugo commerce. Loperfido and Wagner are prospects too, although neither are tremendous excessive degree, they each are value one thing and should not simply filler. This type of deal could be what the Royals are searching for in the event that they parted with Lugo.
Jack Flaherty
Lastly, the Flaherty deal on the deadline introduced again Thayron Liranzo and Trey Sweeney. Each are stable prospects, however neither are spectacular. A partial 12 months of Flaherty shouldn’t be value wherever close to a full 12 months of Lugo although, so that is simply one other information level to determine what worth to anticipate.
After these, and some others, I believe it is likely to be laborious to get precisely what the Royals may need out of a commerce, however it’s attainable and price pursuing. The kinds of gamers that may make it value it, for my part, could be somebody like outfielder Kevin Alcantara. From this survey of trades, Lugo might be not sufficient. Nonetheless, the Cubs have Pete Crow-Armstrong in heart already and Alcantara is likely to be getable. Six years of heart a stable heart fielder could be very priceless and permit Kyle Isbel for use in a far more strategic method. To get Alcantara I’d be prepared so as to add Freddy Fermin or Carter Jensen because the Cubs might use some catching.
The Orioles are one other group I’d be concentrating on, quite than a selected participant. They’ve too many outfielders both on the majors or close to. Mullins, Cowser, Tyler O’Neill, Heston Kjerstad, Dylan Beavers, and Jud Fabian are there are almost there. They’ve to determine the Westburg/Mayo half too. If Jackson Vacation is the second baseman and Mayo is third, Westburg now not has a house within the infield. I’m unsure who out of this lot the Royals would need and the Orioles could be prepared to half with, nevertheless it may very well be value exploring. Solely Beavers and Fabian should not actually able to turn into on a regular basis huge leaguers as of now.
Another choice could be to commerce with the Angels. A Taylor Ward plus one thing commerce might give the Royals a stable and protected choice in left area for 2025 and 2026. Ward is established and may very well be a stable bat, it’s too unhealthy he isn’t left-handed. The Royals ought to be capable of then discover one thing else out of this commerce and the Angels typically do issues that don’t make sense, so the truth that Lugo doesn’t match for the place they’re at most likely doesn’t matter.
To be clear, I like Lugo and don’t need to see him go. Nevertheless, the Royals outfield could be very, very weak. That is such a bizarre place, the Royals energy is their beginning pitching. That has by no means actually been the case in my lifetime, and I’m not younger anymore. Even with out Lugo, a rotation of Ragans, Wacha, Bubic, Marsh, and Lorenzen is one thing the group would have killed for in lots of latest years. In the event you can transfer Lugo, who can’t be constructed round as a consequence of solely controlling him by 2025, and strengthen the lineup now and into the approaching 12 months, then it ought to be carried out. Which means I’d solely log off on such a transfer if the participant(s) introduced again are going to be contributing past 2025.
Milwaukee is the blueprint that I believe Kansas Metropolis ought to comply with, and that is precisely what they did with Burnes final offseason. Maintain your eye to the long run, the long run is dear and KC shouldn’t be in a position to pay Dodgers and Mets contracts out. It’s attainable that the deal I would like shouldn’t be on the market, so I’m not saying they completely should transfer Lugo. This group might make the playoffs and it will be good to have him. I’m simply saying that it will be useful to shore up the outfield and Lugo shouldn’t be going to be in Kansas Metropolis for very lengthy.
