From 2013-2023, there have been three constants concerning me and the LABR Blended Draft (15 groups 5×5, weekly FAAB, $100 w/ $1 minimal):
I drafted yearly someday in February (thanks as at all times for the invite Steve Gardner!)
I reviewed the draft in a loooong put up on Razzball
My groups did usually effectively however by no means took dwelling a 1st or 2nd place (plenty of Third-6ths)
When it got here to put in writing the 2024 draft evaluation, I had nothing within the tank. I favored the template/course of I had set as much as evaluation nevertheless it felt too redux after 2020’s opus the place I codified and acronymed my draft philosophy / course of.
So I simply didn’t write something in regards to the 2024 LABR Blended Draft. And I lastly received. Go determine.
2024 Staff Recap
With 20/20 hindsight, there are some fantasy pennants that appear predestined wanting on the draft board (and key pickups to an extent). I have a look at this one (2024 Draft Board) as a juggernaut that held on to win regardless of some dangerous 2nd half breaks as my prime 3 picks (Tucker, Gausman, Abrams) had nice begins however fell off cliffs as soon as summer season hit. I positively hit a few draft ‘dwelling runs’ that with Skubal within the 4th, Machado within the fifth, Teoscar within the eighth, and Kyle Finnegan within the seventeenth. My most impactful in-season pickups had been Ryan Walker after which possibly Jose Soriano?!
I completed 2nd in AB and fifth in IP. That drove my counting stats efficiency – ending prime 5 in R/HR/RBI regardless of my first 4 picks netting a half-season of Tucker and a disappointing season from Abrams.
Tip of the cap to the at all times robust Derek Van Riper who completed 2nd regardless of drafting Spencer Strider (?!?!) and 100+ standing factors seasons from Alan Harrison at The Fantasy Repair and my Canadian older brother from one other mom Tim McLeod.
Ideas on Early Draft Technique
My most time-consuming preseason exercise is setting and updating hitter and pitcher taking part in time projections. That is foundational for the Steamer/Razzball participant projections and Preseason Participant Raters which gas the Snake Draft, Public sale, and Greatest Ball Draft Rooms which might be a part of our season-long Roto and DFS subscriptions. Each drafting and taking part in time projections have three seasons: 1) Loopy Early (October to December), Early (Jan to early March and three) Prime (Mid-to-late March).
Prime draft season is fairly easy. Taking part in time projections (which embody lineup distributions) get clearer based mostly on information and posted lineups. ADP and projections are as good as they’ll get. Draft luck/variance is as little as it’s going to get (nevertheless it’s nonetheless there – see Strider 2024).
I don’t like ‘Loopy Early’ season. I did it final yr as prep for attending Baseball HQ’s First Pitch in October. Numerous assumptions need to be made on free brokers and staff offseason transactions. This effort is nearly 100% moot by January as soon as the majority of free brokers have signed and trades have been made. So I’ve v1 projections out round January 1st to keep away from doing ‘double work’. However for those who make investments the time and are profitable at figuring out participant roles/expertise, there’s positively drafting edge to be discovered. However there’s additionally vital luck/variance. An excellent instance is anybody who drafted Ben Joyce earlier than the Angels unpredictably picked up Kenley Jansen.
I’ve been Early drafting for a very long time now due to Business league participation (LABR, ToutWars, TARF, TGFBI, and so forth.). I’ll additionally combine in a Draft Champions league or two (10% low cost to Razzball season-long subscribers right here). I ought to do nice in these as a result of I really feel I’ve an edge based mostly on my taking part in time funding/acumen – e.g., I believe the opposite projections (and their underlying taking part in time) profit extra vs mine by ST as participant roles/lineups grow to be clearer. Typically / some leagues this performs out however not often does it play out like that throughout all my Early drafts. I recall one yr (2019?) the place I used to be in first in ToutWars and LABR on the ASB and received Tout (however the LABR staff light).
Final yr was positively by greatest across-the-board ‘early draft’ season. Not solely did I win 15-team combined LABR but in addition 15-team combined ToutWars and the Texas element (TARF) of EARTH – a multi-league competitors the place I completed 2nd within the general standings.
That stated, my Early drafting strategy has not modified a lot through the years. Listed below are some key issues for me:
Embrace The Variance – Ideally, you look again in late March and you’ll establish a number of gamers that you simply bought as ‘bargains’ as a result of early drafters had doubts. I believe the forms of gamers that this impacts are: 1) Younger gamers the place the market overly doubted taking part in time and/or expertise, 2) Gamers getting back from damage who proved to be wholesome/prepared, and three) Gamers coming off a nasty yr, typically in a brand new scenario. Numerous these gamers are identifiable based mostly on being larger in your rankings vs ADP so you must do no matter pre-draft homework you should do to really feel snug with these candidates. I believe my 2024 picks of Tarik Skubal (youth) and Teoscar Hernandez (new staff/park) match this invoice.
Construct A Stable Basis – The groups that end close to the highest in PA/IP are usually the very best groups. You don’t get there by making solely horny upside picks. It’s good to combine in some PA/Inning eaters.
Unfold The $$$ on Closers – RPs incomes saves (besides MAYBE Rockies) are costly in FAAB. I like drafting quite a lot of Closers within the again half of early drafts regardless of how a lot I like/dislike my RP choose(s) within the first half of the draft. I really feel like there’s extra upside in case you are proper (vs a place participant) and it’s straightforward to chop bait if you end up unsuitable (tougher with a prospect who ‘wants extra seasoning’).
My 2025 Draft (Tuesday, Feb twenty fifth)
I didn’t have a set draft technique choosing from spot 15. I traditionally drafted groups across the anticipated league common Hit/SP/RP draft fairness percentages of 63/27/10 by 2023. Final yr I ended up at 59/33/8.
I take into consideration drafting positions on this order: SPs -> RPs -> Bats. I’m extra specific about pitchers than hitters and take a look at to make sure I’m drafting pitchers I need vs choosing pitchers out of positional want.
I felt snug sufficient to go bat/bat if Skenes/Skubal had been each off the board as I assumed there can be at the least one SP I favored in Spherical 3 and probably might double up on that flip. I suppose it’s attainable I’d have handed on Skenes or Skubal if two of my prime 10 bats fell to the flip. I additionally dominated out going pocket aces if each Skenes and Skubal fell (or pairing one with Wheeler). Skenes falling made it a simple name to go bat/SP with the primary two picks and I most well-liked Chourio over Yordan due to his velocity.
With Skenes on the roster, I had no need to low-cost out on the remainder of the employees to get nearer to league common SP draft fairness. I needed to press the pitching benefit – it was only a matter of whether or not I’d be above common in SP funding or lead the room. That call was made for me when an surprising 8 groups went all bats in Rounds 1-3. This concurrently eliminated all of the hitters I used to be focusing on on the three/4 flip and created some good SP values. So I grabbed the highest obtainable participant on my board (Sale) and reached for the highest hitter on my board in Adley Rutschman.
I might have began Chourio/Yordan/Sale/Burnes if I had anticipated the room would skew hitters in late spherical 2 by spherical 3. I’d have been high-quality with that too. Specializing in bats for the primary 4 rounds and stocking up on SPs in rounds 5-8 appeared to work out okay for the a number of drafters that did this however I believe this is able to have been suboptimal from my draft place.
With Skenes/Sale in tow, the SP and Hitter technique had been in place. Maintain drafting SPs at a league common clip all through draft so I’d find yourself across the prime at SP draft fairness (~32% of draft fairness) and draft hitters with an eye fixed in the direction of PA quantity and avoiding any main hitter class weak point (particularly low energy, velocity or AVG). One facet value noting is that this can be a league with limitless IL spots so there’s extra tolerance for the occasional excessive PA/Recreation man who spends stretches on the IL (Buxton).
For RPs, I felt snug with a tranche stepping into Rounds 9-13 the place I felt I might probably get two in that vary. I ended up taking Bautista at 9.15 (virtually 3 rounds later than NFBC ADP) and Estevez at 13.15. I then bought opportunistic, grasping, or silly as I grabbed Justin Martinez (19.15 – 4 rounds later than NFBC ADP) and Calvin Faucher (21.15) on the tail finish of the draft as their upside was extra attractive than the lower-end bats/SPs obtainable. I did wince a bit when Bubba Chandler got here off the board after the 19/20 flip since he was on my radar for that choose pre-draft. That one would possibly look actual silly in a month or two.
I believe I made the precise name leaning into pitching vs hitting based mostly on the hand I used to be dealt drafting from the tip. My staff is a bit of weaker in HR/RBI than I’d like popping out of the draft. I maybe ’embraced the variance’ a bit greater than regular bypassing safer 1Bs like Hoskins and Josh Bell within the again half of the draft in favor of a less expensive/riskier Christian Encarnacion-Strand AND having an absolute punt at SS with Brooks Lee / Colson Montgomery as I didn’t just like the SS costs/choices. There’s at all times FAAB and buying and selling 🙂
Room Splits
Everyone knows everybody’s groups look nice utilizing their very own rankings/projections. So once I have a look at a draft, I focus extra on how groups distributed their draft capital.
The LABR draft has traditionally mirrored my Participant Rater draft capital distribution of 63.5% Hitter / 26.5% SP / 10% RP (utilizing public sale $ value for every of the primary 23 picks or, if I’m being anal, the 23 gamers more likely to begin week 1). This draft was no totally different at 64/26/10. One useful half about taking a look at a draft like that is you grow to be much less affected by positional runs. If a sure place goes on a run sooner than anticipated, it probably means there will probably be worth later vs proceed that value inflation all through the draft.
Under had been the splits on this draft. If you happen to informed me I used to be going to speculate 33% in SPs once more, my objective would have been nearer to final yr’s Bat/RP break up of 59/8 vs 57/10 (see observe on CI and SS above).
Decide
Staff
Hit%
SP%
RP%
League Common
64
26
10
1
Yahoo Sports activities (Pianowski)
72
24
4
2
@TheFantasyFix (Harrison)
66
23
11
3
Baseball Prospectus (Gianella)
62
26
11
4
Fangraphs (Podhorzer)
68
23
9
5
The Athletic (DVR)
68
24
7
6
Sleeper & the Bust (Sporer)
64
24
12
7
RotoWire (Erickson)
65
24
11
8
Fantasy Guru (Flowers)
65
31
4
9
Prospect 361 (McLeod)
59
26
15
10
Fred Zinkie
66
28
6
11
BaseballHQ (Bloomfield)
62
26
11
12
FTN Fantasy (Butler)
56
32
12
13
Zach Steinhorn
63
26
10
14
Dr. Roto
68
22
10
15
Razzball (Rudy Gamble)
57
33
10
I ran correlations (r^2) on final yr’s Hit/SP/RP splits and located the next outcomes:
Hit % -> Hitter Standings Factors = 0.05
SP % -> W/ERA/WHIP/Okay Standings Factors = 0.34
RP % -> SV Standings Factors = 0.16
It is a one yr / one league pattern so unsure how a lot to learn into it. It actually helps my habits/bias in the direction of investing extra in SP.
As well as, the correlation between this room’s 2024 Hit% and 2025 Hit% was 0.40 – i.e., drafters are inclined to distribute their draft capital equally yr over yr. Probably the most dramatic shifts had been from DVR and Paul Sporer who each went from close to backside at 58-59% on Hitters in 2024 (DVR splurging on SPs with pocket aces and Sporer going pocket RPs in rounds 3/4) to 68% and 64% on hitters in 2025.
If you wish to calculate this in your staff within the Draft Room, simply unhide column D and add the spherical quantity subsequent to all of your picks. We solely need it to incorporate our ‘beginning 23’ so that you’ll mark them with a ‘y’ within the C column and a ‘z’ in your bench gamers. If you wish to do it in your first 23 (or nevertheless many beginning roster spots), that’s high-quality too. You may then see the draft fairness splits in Z1:AA3 within the prime proper. It’s value noting that the calculation for this throughout a draft is a bit of wonky typically. I believe the very best time to evaluation that is both pre-draft when mock drafting or post-draft. Throughout a draft, the best means for me to maintain on observe is to recollect sure SP patterns within the prime 10-12 rounds – e.g., for those who take 2 SPs in your first 4 rounds, spreading out your subsequent two across the 8/12 ranges will get you within the 57-60% neighborhood.
Different draft room notes for these unfamiliar with it:
The numbers within the 10 classes are my public sale $ estimates which might be within the Participant Rater. If you happen to add them collectively + $1, you get the public sale $ worth. I discover them to be a simple method to evaluate participant contributions throughout classes. They whole up in row 3 and row 2 has the fiftieth percentile targets (aka a $260 staff with league common splits).
Numerous persons are obsessive about eightieth percentile targets. I don’t discover that useful. My common objective is to draft a staff constructed as I like, ideally nets most general worth (cell K3), and is above common in all 10 classes with out being too imbalanced in a particular class.
As you possibly can see with this staff, I’m above common in all of the pitching classes however weakest in Wins which ought to make some degree of sense since I’ve Skenes. A part of the enchantment of Reynaldo Lopez and Ranger Suarez had been their projected win contributions. My hitting turned out fairly effectively however lighter than I’d like in RBI (which I famous in my staff evaluation).
I monitor my class stability all through the draft.
I solely fear about my staff. I simply ‘x’ out the drafted gamers
The exclamation factors in column AA present up for gamers I like a sure draft fairness $ quantity greater than ADP.
Parting Ideas
If there’s one piece of recommendation I’d give all drafters, it could be to spend a while in your early drafts mapping out varied draft eventualities out of your draft slot. One cause folks draft equally yearly is as a result of it makes them really feel extra snug. I discover operating a number of totally different eventualities earlier than the draft helps me to get snug with totally different draft methods. You should utilize a device just like the Razzball Draft Room (a part of the season-long subscription) to ‘mock’ a number of groups based mostly on probably obtainable participant(s) and get a really feel in your choices.
