After a second consecutive season the place they’ll miss the playoffs, the Cardinals group seems to be in flux. With a presser scheduled for early on this coming week, rumors have swirled that the membership is ready to make some notable organizational modifications to kick off their offseason. These modifications determine to be headlined by former Pink Sox Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom moving into a bigger function with the membership’s baseball operations division, however USA At this time’s Bob Nightengale studies this morning that this offseason’s modifications may carry over to the massive league roster as nicely. Per Nightengale, the Cardinals are prepared to take heed to affords on veteran right-hander Sonny Grey only one yr after signing him to a hefty three-year, $75MM deal because the crew hopes to chop payroll getting into subsequent yr.
The notion of St. Louis seeking to trim down its payroll isn’t precisely a stunning one. Cardinals attendance dropped under 3 million this yr for the primary time since 2003 (ignoring the pandemic-impacted seasons of 2020 and 2021), leaving the membership with much less gate income than anticipated. In the meantime, the TV income aspect of issues isn’t a lot rosier because the Cardinals are one of many groups impacted by the continuing Diamond Sports activities Group chapter. Whereas MLB and the Gamers’ Affiliation agreed again in July to redirect funds in the direction of golf equipment which have misplaced TV income amid Diamond’s troubles, it might hardly be a shock if the membership’s budgets going ahead had been impacted by this income uncertainty.
Even when the general baseball operations price range isn’t lowered, it’s nonetheless attainable to think about the membership’s participant payroll dropping heading into 2025. In any case, The Athletic’s Katie Woo reported on the state of the Cardinals group earlier this week and described a state of affairs the place the membership has begun to prioritize main league payroll over investing within the group’s improvement infrastructure, leading to cuts to key areas of participant improvement so as to maintain an ever-growing payroll on the huge league degree. With modifications to the entrance workplace seemingly on the horizon, it’s definitely believable that the membership may pare again its payroll so as to spend money on a extra sturdy participant improvement equipment.
That risk of a decrease huge league payroll subsequent yr leads again to Grey, who will see his back-loaded wage rise from $10MM this yr to $25MM in 2025. Whereas RosterResource at Fangraphs suggests St. Louis has simply $108MM in assured commitments for subsequent yr, that doesn’t embrace an more and more costly arbitration class together with key gamers like Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Ryan Helsley. Nor does it embrace the potential for the membership deciding to train its membership choice on one or each of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, every of that are $12MM choices with $1MM buyouts. With Grey’s $15MM elevate this yr and people attainable additions to the payroll, it’s straightforward to see why the Cardinals could must commerce wage away so as to tackle the roster’s wants this winter even after shedding Paul Goldschmidt’s $26MM wage when he reaches free company in November.
With that being mentioned, dropping Grey could be a serious blow to St. Louis’s hopes of contending subsequent yr. The veteran right-hander had one thing of a down season in his first yr with the Cardinals, posting a 3.84 ERA that’s simply 9% higher than league common by ERA+. Even so, Grey’s 3.12 FIP was nothing wanting glorious and he stays only one yr faraway from a dominant season with the Twins that noticed him end second in AL Cy Younger award voting behind Gerrit Cole. The 34-year-old hurler would probably be an enchancment to only about any membership’s rotation subsequent yr, nevertheless it’s onerous to think about the Cardinals themselves discovering an satisfactory substitute for the right-hander internally coming off a season the place the membership’s starters collective posted a 4.36 ERA that ranks twenty first within the majors and a 4.08 FIP that ranks fifteenth even with Grey within the fold.
What’s extra, the hefty wage that would lead the Cardinals to contemplate dealing Grey may show to be an anchor that makes him surprisingly tough to commerce. Between his wage for the following two years and a $5MM buyout on his choice for 2027, Grey is owed $65MM over the following two seasons. That’s a hefty sum for any membership to tackle, and it could possibly be particularly problematic for golf equipment at or close to the posh tax. Upon being traded, contracts are recalculated for luxurious tax functions based mostly on the remaining {dollars} and years on the deal, that means that an buying crew could be accepting a success of practically $32.5MM to their luxurious tax ledger over the following two years by buying and selling for Grey. Even when the Cardinals can discover a commerce companion prepared to abdomen that value, Grey’s full no-trade clause may additional complicate issues by permitting him to dam any deal in that case chooses.
That’s to not say a deal could be utterly not possible, after all. Loads of gamers with no-trade clauses and even bigger contracts than Grey have been dealt over time, and if the Cardinals are sufficiently motivated to get a deal performed there’ll certainly be suitors for a pitcher of Grey’s caliber. Nightengale means that the Reds, for whom Grey pitched from 2019-21 and made his second profession journey to the All-Star recreation, may have curiosity in a reunion if the veteran is made obtainable this winter.
The Reds have had a disappointing season in 2024 however nonetheless sport an thrilling younger core of expertise led by right-hander Hunter Greene and shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Including Grey as an skilled, front-of-the-rotation veteran could be an enormous enhance for a Cincinnati rotation that seems more likely to lose Nick Martinez to free company this yr however nonetheless has various fascinating younger arms behind Greene comparable to Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, and Graham Ashcraft. Any of these younger arms would certainly be enticing to St. Louis as a possible return for Grey’s providers given their very own rotation wants, although it appears probably that the Cardinals would want to retain some cash so as to facilitate such a deal given the Reds’ usually low payrolls and Grey’s giant contract.
