The Rays are in such a bizarre spot proper now. It’s straightforward to say that they’re only a dangerous crew. It’s straightforward to simply lament this is similar music and dance from 2024. However the actuality is way stranger.
Tonight, very like the remainder of the season, the Rays hit additional base hits, they’d RISP, they obtained a high quality begin from the starter, and so they had ample alternatives to flip the script.
That’s the way in which the 2025 Rays have performed! this isn’t the 2024 Rays. This can be a crew with high ten in BA with RISP. In actual fact they’re high ten in mainly each offensive class (fifth in wRC+, fifth in BA, ninth in OPS) besides runs scored.
In actual fact, in Runs scored, they’ve scored 94 whole runs earlier than tonight. The 17-7 New York Mets have scored 96 runs.
The Rays have an anticipated win proportion of 12-10 coming into immediately, and after tonight an precise document of 9-14.
So what the hell is occurring? Effectively tonight offers a pitch good view of the problems.
Dropping the HR battle
Zack Littell pitched a relatively remarkably good sport towards the 2nd greatest offense in baseball. 6 IP 3 ER simply the 1 BB. Nonetheless, the distinction within the sport was two HRs. All 3 of the runs he gave up got here with 2 outs and on the lengthy ball.
Rays alternatively had no HRs. It’s very arduous to string collectively hits to drive in a number of runs, and even tougher to do it to beat a 2 HR deficit within the class.
The shortage of energy remains to be a giant subject for the Rays. twenty first in whole crew HR at simply 21 whole. The Rays have the bats to supply extra. They simply gotta get these bats producing. Which leads me to the following level…
The place’s the Beef?!
How’s that for a well timed cultural reference?
Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero mixed to go 0-8 with 3 double performs grounded into. It simply appeared like each time Tampa Bay obtained a spark of a rally, Yandy or Junior got here up and snuffed it out simply as rapidly.
A lot of final yr the problems with the Rays offense was failing to attain with runners in scoring place. This yr the Rays have top-of-the-line batting averages with RISP. Past the difficulty with the aforementioned lack of energy, the Rays are producing plenty of RISP possibilities. That’s what good groups do!
The problem turns into how do you generate the runs wanted while you aren’t hitting bombs? You’ll want to chain collectively hits to increase the rally. That’s an issue when your 8-9 spots have been a blackhole many of the yr (tonight the function of 8 and 9 was performed by Ben Rortvedt and Taylor Partitions, 0-6 mixed).
The issue is way, MUCH worse when it’s the center of the order that’s struggling. Brandon Lowe has gotten off to a gradual begin, tonight 1-4. Yandy has nonetheless but to interrupt 100 wRC+ on the season, had one of many GIDP and whopping 0-4 (though hit the ball arduous proper into the worst spots). Junior as talked about 0-4.
The Rays had been 1 for six with RISP. However the 6 quantity is essential. Chandler Simpson continued to impress early getting two base hits and including his 2nd steal of the season. Jonathan Aranda obtained on base twice, one BB and one other by HBP. The HBP supplied a terrifying a number of minutes of rigorously watch Aranda rub his knee praying he could be okay. Fortunately Aranda would keep within the sport, and because of Junior behind him made it so he didn’t need to run a lot in any respect hitting into double performs each instances he reached.
Kameron Misner and Jake Mangum continued to be big brilliant spots as effectively.
In some unspecified time in the future Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and Junior Caminero will have the ability to hit and hit collectively. That day wants to return quickly.
(No) Good Luck, Babe
The Rays as soon as once more received the xBA battle .310 to .295. The Rays had been as soon as once more not overmatched by their opponent. As soon as once more although the Rays simply can’ty catch or make their very own breaks.
The Rays Pythagorean anticipated W-L coming in was 12-10. They’ve confronted a brutal opening schedule with Texas (1st within the West), Angels (2nd within the west), Atlanta (lacking Acuna and gradual begin however clearly good), Boston (2nd in East), and New York (1st in East and AL). And now Arizona who’s going toe to toe with San Diego Padres and the LA Dodgers in the perfect division in baseball (in addition to the additionally lava sizzling San Francisco Giants).
It’s fairly straightforward to be defeated and discouraged. Rays are actually 5 video games beneath .500. The video games in April depend the identical because the video games in September, so the losses immediately harm simply as a lot and could also be getting arduous to beat. The Rays are actually one loss away from going 1-5 in sequence after the opening homestand, And hell, with San Diego subsequent I’d be fairly prepared proper about now to chalk that one as much as one other sequence loss too.
However at a sure level the coin flips will change. In some unspecified time in the future All-Star caliber gamers like Yandy Diaz is not going to hit 40 factors under common. The Rays usually are not the feeble and utterly overmatch 2024 membership. Their lineup has far more punch to it, with Chandler on the high, Aranda bringing the lumber, and Junior Caminero at 21 displaying flashes of a real generational bat. They’ve a rotation that has high tier stuff and usually are not counting on piecing collectively simply sufficient innings from Todd the Painter.
The expertise degree and the flashes are clearly there, and there may be so many small moments on this sport and so amny video games this season the place you simply want another out or one ball within the hole to flip the script from an L to a W.
And perhaps that’s precisely what makes this all of the extra painful thus far.
