The meteoric ascent of Quinn Mathews is without doubt one of the most surprising in latest reminiscence. Mathews went from an excellent prospect with restricted upside to one of many high pitchers within the Minor Leagues in simply 5 months’ time. As we enter the offseason, I took a deep dive at Quinn Mathews to see what makes the Cardinals’ #2 prospect so good.
Who’s Quinn Mathews?
Mathews is a California child who was born in Mission Viejo earlier than taking part in his prep ball at Aliso Niguel HS. He was a High 100 participant within the state popping out of highschool however by no means gained nationwide recognition. Mathews joined the Stanford baseball program in 2020 and had minimal success his first two seasons in Palo Alto earlier than breaking out in 2022. As a junior in 2022, he recorded 9 wins and 9 saves with a 3.08 ERA, hanging out 111 batters in 99 1/3 innings. His efficiency led him to be a two-time Nationwide Pitcher of the Week and Honorable Point out All Pac-12. The Rays drafted Mathews within the nineteenth spherical, however the left-hander returned to Stanford for his senior season.
As a senior, he grew to become a star because the workforce’s Friday evening starter, a designation reserved for the ace of the workers. Mathews completed his closing season with 158 strikeouts in 124 2/3 innings and posted 10+ strikeouts in eight begins. His shining second was a 16-strikeout, 156-pitch efficiency towards Texas within the Tremendous Regional, propelling the Cardinals to the School World Collection. Mathews was First Staff All-Pac 12, Pac-12 Pitcher of the Yr, a First Staff All-American, and a semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award. In his Stanford profession, Mathews gained 25 video games, transformed 9 saves, and recorded 343 strikeouts in 311 2/3 innings. The St. Louis Cardinals made Mathews a 4th-round within the 2023 Draft. After an prolonged collegiate season, Mathews didn’t seem in any Minor League video games following the Draft.
Bodily Traits and Supply
Standing at 6-foot-5 and weighing 210 lbs, the 23-year-old left-hander is a extra bodily model of Chris Sale. Mathews entered the Cardinals system at 185 lbs however improved his physique following the Draft. Based on Baseball America, Mathews went to work on the Cardinals’ advanced with a give attention to including weight. His exercise regime yielded 20+ kilos of muscle. By doing so, Mathews gained substantial velocity positive factors whereas additionally pitching deeper into video games. Mission completed!
Mathews’ wind-up and supply are very influential in his success. He begins his wind-up on the precise aspect of the rubber together with his toes unfold aside. Mathews rocks again and briefly hesitates earlier than lifting his arms over his head. Throughout his supply, Mathews drops the arms to his waist, separates his arms, and drives towards the plate. His physique torques sufficient to cover the ball, which helps his arsenal play up much more.
Arsenal
It was vital to focus on the bodily positive factors that Mathews skilled within the offseason earlier than the 2024 season. Regardless of his collegiate success, Mathews was projected as a swing reliever or, in a best-case state of affairs, a back-end rotation kind. The added physicality had two results: the power to constantly pitch deep into video games and, most significantly, a considerable velocity improve.
4-seam Fastball: His fastball was the most important benefactor of the rate positive factors. The pitch sat round 91mph at Stanford with a max of 94. In 2024, he averaged 94.4 mph and topped out at 97. Mathews’ mixture of a low vertical strategy angle (underneath 6ft) and excessive induced vertical break (17.9 in) assaults hitters up within the zone.
Changeup: Mathews’ changeup is essentially the most devastating pitch in his arsenal and options a mean of almost 11 inches of arm-side run. Opposing hitters had a 48.6% strikeout charge and 55.4% whiff charge on the changeup, making it essentially the most profitable pitch in his arsenal. The changeup is especially efficient towards right-handed hitters. In 32 measured at-bats towards righties, it generated 36 whiffs and was chargeable for 17 strikeouts (53.1% Ok-rate).
Curve: A mid-70s curveball units the tone for the breaking pitches. It has a pleasant arc with a mean of eight inches of vertical drop paired with ten inches of run to the glove aspect. Mathews is comfy throwing the curve in any rely and in any quadrant of the strike zone. Most hitters do one among two issues together with his curveball: hit it on the bottom or swing proper by it.
Slider: The slider, which now sits within the mid-80s, improved by 4 miles per hour versus his collegiate days. The important thing factor is the deception of the pitch, which comes from the identical tunnel because the fastball and has made hitters look foolish. Regardless that the slider lacks vital motion, it affords sufficient of a wrinkle to maintain hitters off-balance. Mathews has had respectable success with the slider, nevertheless it’s fairly a luxurious to have your fourth-best possibility generate a 50% whiff charge.
Measured Outcomes
Based mostly on Statcast-tracked pitches
Historic 2024 Season
Mathews’ 2024 journey started by manhandling hitters at Low-A Palm Seashore. Mathews collected 52 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings, together with an 11-strikeout efficiency in his second profession begin and 13 Ok’s in his fourth. He was shortly promoted to Excessive-A, the place he skilled comparable success. Mathews struck out six or extra hitters in all of his begins on the stage, posting a 2.68 ERA and holding hitters to a .157 common towards. In complete, Mathews had a 2.18 ERA with 110 strikeouts towards 20 walks in A-ball.
With Mathews firmly on the prospect radar, he took his recreation to the following stage whereas pitching within the hitter-friendly Texas League. He made 9 begins for Double-A Springfield. In these begins, he had a 2.41 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 15 walks over 52 1/3 innings. For context, amongst certified pitchers, solely two had an ERA underneath 3, and simply three posted an ERA underneath 4. Hitters had a measly .186 AVG, a .277 SLG, and a .534 OPS towards Mathews. Many of the injury got here early in Double-A, as he allowed 11 earned runs over 20 2/3 innings. Mathews settled in after that and was utterly dominant. Probably the most spectacular run of his season was a five-start stretch from July thirty first to August twenty third. Mathews allowed simply 5 earned runs and 15 hits throughout 31 2/3 innings whereas hanging out 49 hitters in comparison with eight walks. Having completed all he may on the stage, the Cardinals promoted Mathews to his closing cease at Triple-A Memphis.
His Triple-A outcomes had been much less favorable. The staple of Mathews’ dominance within the decrease ranges was his command and talent to pound the strike zone. Whereas adjusting to a brand new stage and the presence of the ABS system, Mathews struggled to throw strikes. In 4 begins spanning 16 2/3 innings, he walked 14 hitters, precisely one lower than he walked in 9 Double-A outings. General, he managed to throw simply 57% of his pitches for strikes in AAA, in comparison with 65% on the different ranges. Placing males on base proved detrimental. The mix of walks and well timed hitting ballooned his Triple-A ERA to six.48. Hitters fared nicely, batting .277 with a .438 SLG and .848 OPS. However trying on the underlying information, Mathews nonetheless managed to suppress onerous contact, yielding an 86.8 mph common EV. He allowed 13 hard-hit balls in his 4 begins, with most coming towards his fastball.
He had a 2.76 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 26 begins, hanging out 202 hitters towards 49 walks. In doing so, Mathews grew to become the 2nd pitcher previously 13 seasons to try this, becoming a member of Brandon Pfaadt, who completed the feat in 2022 (218 Ok). Mathews was named Baseball America’s Minor League Pitcher of the Yr and the MiLB Pitching Prospect of the Yr. He has change into the #2 prospect within the Cardinals group and a consensus High 50 prospect in baseball.
QUINN-SANITY 😮
Closing line for Quinn Mathews tonight: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 11 Ok.
Minor League Baseball’s strikeout chief now has 168 Ks on the yr. pic.twitter.com/xY8Jg7l6SO
— Springfield Cardinals (@Sgf_Cardinals) August 18, 2024
Fantasy Outlook
The toughest half about evaluating prospects is assigning worth to them within the fantasy realm. As a real-world pitcher, Mathews has taken unbelievable strides to enhance his repertoire and change into a front-of-the-rotation arm. With a real four-pitch combine, he can preserve hitters guessing from at-bat to at-bat and expose hitters who promote out on one specific pitch. His mechanics are easy, constant, and repeatable. With deception in his supply and a high-powered arsenal, hitters get very uncomfortable within the field. Mathews additionally improved his command since making his professional debut, and if you happen to take out his Triple-A hiccup, he would have posted a walk-rate of round 7%.
So, how does this translate to fantasy? We all know Mathews will miss bats at a excessive charge, giving him above-average strikeout potential. His command will restrict free passes, and his pitch combine ought to suppress onerous contact. When there’s onerous contact, Mathews limits fly balls, which ought to assist with run prevention. However any pitcher who permits larger groundball and line drive charges runs the danger of a better BABIP, which may barely inflate his ratios. My projection for Mathews is an ERA within the mid-to-upper 3’s with a WHIP round 1.10. Mathews’ win potential is enhanced by his skill to pitch deep into video games, and he ought to rack up loads of high quality begins. His ceiling as a fantasy beginning pitcher is a High 25 arm, though his ground feels a lot larger and safer than the present high-level pitching prospects.
Conclusion
The rise of Quinn Mathews has been fairly a experience. Mathews began at Stanford as a swingman in his first two seasons earlier than transferring right into a hybrid function as a junior and changing into the workers ace as a senior. His onerous work and dedication to his physique are admirable and have paid off with career-altering velocity positive factors and improved stamina. Mathews will make his MLB debut in 2025, whether or not or not it’s out of camp because the Cardinals’ fifth starter or as a mid-season call-up. You probably have an opportunity so as to add him in your dynasty leagues, I’d completely make the deal occur. Mathews will probably be an innings-eater with excellent ratios and supply much-needed stability to any rotation. Don’t count on a megastar, however Mathews has the expertise to anchor a rotation within the huge leagues for years to come back.
