(For a take a look at my preview for the Shortstop marketplace for the Atlanta Braves this offseason, click on right here)
Charlie Morton and Max Fried, inarguably the highest two starters from the 2021 World Sequence workforce, are each free brokers. Morton is anticipated by many to retire, whereas Fried is ready to land himself an enormous, well-deserved payday.
Earlier than any strikes are made, that leaves the Braves with 4 big-league caliber arms within the rotation to begin 2025; probably NL Cy Younger winner Chris Sale, Reynaldo López contemporary off a 2.00 ERA, rookie sensation Spencer Schwellenbach, and Grant “Kenny Powers” Holmes. Spencer Strider, Atlanta’s Opening Day starter in 2024, is anticipated to return from his elbow harm someday within the first half – probably as early as mid-late April, although his timeline isn’t totally outlined but. Past that, they’ve Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, Hurston Waldrep, and AJ Smith-Shawver as their prime depth arms.
The theoretical prime 5 of Sale, Strider, López, Schwelly, and Holmes is already a particularly robust group, however every comes with query marks round workload capability. Sale simply pitched extra innings in 2024 than he had within the earlier three seasons mixed. Strider is getting back from a significant harm that has sidelined him since early April. López handled some minor accidents in his first full season as a full-time beginning pitcher since 2019. Schwellenbach soared well past his earlier profession excessive in innings-pitched, and Holmes was used as a swingman in his debut season whereas surpassing 100 IP (between AAA and MLB) for the primary time since 2017.
Due to all these issues, and since Atlanta’s bullpen is stocked full of pricey, skilled veterans, I count on the Braves to go together with a 6-man rotation, particularly when Strider re-enters the image. There hasn’t been any reporting that I’ve seen that confirms this, however in my thoughts at the very least, it simply makes an excessive amount of sense. Even when they keep on with a 5 man rotation, although, the Braves will nearly definitely need to add at the very least one beginning pitcher this offseason to push Holmes into that sixth starter / swingman position.
Overview of the Market
In contrast to shortstop, there are a plethora of choices for upgrading the rotation this winter. There are ace-tier free brokers and ace-tier commerce candidates in the event that they choose to make a splash, and there are plentiful mid-rotation starters who would likely make the membership higher.
Additionally not like shortstop, nonetheless, practically each workforce within the league might be investing within the beginning pitcher market in some type or trend. “You possibly can by no means have sufficient pitching,” or so they are saying. Competitors for netting a prime arm might be stiff.
Now, let’s get into the candidates for the Braves rotation.
Tier One – The Aces
(In case you are on a cellular system then this desk is greatest seen in panorama mode.)
Ace-Tier Accessible SP
Participant
2025 Age
IP
Okay%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
fWAR
Participant
2025 Age
IP
Okay%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
fWAR
Corbin Burnes
30
590
26.4%
7.0%
1.02
3.08
3.49
11.8
Blake Snell
32
412
32.4%
11.4%
0.70
2.82
2.98
10.8
Max Fried
31
437.1
23.7%
6.1%
0.66
2.8
3.03
10.1
Garrett Crochet
26
158.2
33.5%
7.0%
1.08
3.57
2.93
4.5
Sonny Grey
34
470
26.3%
6.8%
0.77
3.24
3.08
11.6
Roki Sasaki
23
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
We’ll start with the elephant within the room. Max Fried. World Sequence Sport 6 winner, is third amongst Braves SP within the integration period in ERA – behind solely Maddux and Spahn – and 4th amongst Braves SP in FIP (since 1947, min. 550 IP). He had a 3.25 ERA and three.33 FIP this season, and each have been one way or the other the best he had posted within the final 5 years. His fastball velocity remained at regular Max Fried ranges, and he threw greater than 165 innings for the 4th time within the final 5 full seasons.
Many have speculated that Fried might be chasing Aaron Nola cash, and I feel that’s a very good benchmark for him to set. 7 years, $172M is the deal Nola received, and the Braves have been reportedly very aggressive within the bidding for Nola. When all is alleged and achieved, I feel Fried’s assure might be a bit smaller than Nola’s – both a smaller AAV over 7 years or a barely bigger AAV over 5-6 years – as a result of Nola’s well being report is impossibly pristine, and Fried has had some arm troubles over the previous couple of seasons. Most have already counted the Braves out of the Fried sweepstakes, however I don’t see it that method. AA is aware of that Fried’s constant greatness is hard to seek out straight seasons of an ERA beneath 3.30 and a FIP beneath 3.35 is difficult to seek out, and Fried has said repeatedly how a lot he loves enjoying in Atlanta. In the event that they have been keen to pay massive cash to Aaron Nola final offseason, they could possibly be keen to do the identical for one of many biggest pitchers in franchise historical past.
Burnes, a Scott Boras shopper, might be anticipated to obtain the most important contract of any SP this winter, nevertheless it nearly definitely received’t come from the Braves. Snell might need the best AAV of any free agent SP – he’s extraordinarily particular when he’s on, however given the upside in the remainder of their rotation, I don’t see the Braves going all-in on a high-strikeout, high-walk arm who can wrestle to pitch deep into video games.
Sasaki has gaudy stuff and has dominated NPB at a really younger age. He’s made it very clear that he needs to play in MLB as quickly as potential, however the Chiba Lotte Marines would lose out on tens of hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in the event that they submit him now quite than ready till the 2026-2027 offseason, when there might be no bonus restrictions on his posting. For that motive, I count on his stateside debut to be additional delayed. Even when he have been posted this offseason, sensible cash could be on him becoming a member of Ohtani and Yamamoto in LA or Suzuki and Imanaga in Chicago.
At 34 years previous, Sonny Grey confirmed a marked enchancment in his means to overlook bats whereas nonetheless avoiding walks. The house run ball stung him a bit, however the leap in Okay% might be very engaging to quite a few groups. The Cardinals have already said that they plan to shed some payroll this winter, so it’s very probably that Grey might be on the transfer. He’s owed $25M in 2025 and $35M in 2026, which might attraction to AA because it probably received’t require a number of prime prospects to land him.
A commerce for Crochet, nonetheless, would positively imply dropping a number of prime prospects. Crochet added a cutter to his repertoire final offseason, and it resulted in a surprising breakout season. He led all pitchers with at the very least 100 IP in Okay%, Okay-BB%, xFIP, and SIERA. He completed prime 5 in FIP and trailed solely Snell in SwStr% (% of pitches thrown that lead to a whiff). The one detrimental was a controversial second in his season – across the commerce deadline, he claimed that if he was traded to a contending workforce, he wouldn’t pitch within the postseason until he had an extension in place. No matter how some followers might have perceived this, I wouldn’t be stunned if AA truly noticed this as a inexperienced flag. Crochet’s 2024 is just like Strider’s 2022 – prime of the league in Okay% and mainly each peripheral metric there may be – and after AA witnessed Strider’s 2022, he locked him right into a 6+ yr extension straight away. Yet one more observe in help of a Crochet commerce + extension – he grew up in Mississippi and went to the College of Tennessee.
For what it’s value, I feel it’s extra probably that the Braves land one among Grey or Crochet by way of commerce than it’s that they signal one among Fried, Burnes, or Snell to a market-value contract.
Tier Two – Mid-Rotation Arms with Upside
(In case you are on a cellular system then this desk is greatest seen in panorama mode.)
Accessible Mid-Rotation Arms with Upside
Participant
2025 Age
IP
Okay%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
fWAR
Participant
2025 Age
IP
Okay%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
fWAR
Yusei Kikuchi
34
444
27.00%
7.90%
1.52
4.24
4.2
5.1
Shane Bieber
30
340
23.70%
5.20%
0.85
3.12
3.15
7.6
Jack Flaherty
29
342.1
25.60%
8.60%
1.18
4.05
4
5
Kevin Gausman
34
540.2
26.90%
6.20%
0.90
3.45
3.05
13.6
Kikuchi is the kind of free agent arm that the Braves ought to be very considering. After Kikuchi was traded to Houston on the deadline this yr, they meaningfully altered his pitch combine, and he pitched like an ace down the stretch. A small pattern of prime efficiency isn’t often a motive to wager on somebody, however when there may be such a transparent change in strategy that produces outcomes, there could also be a possibility to land a top-of-the-rotation arm for a mid-rotation worth. On prime of that, he’s been very sturdy since coming to MLB in 2019, and he shouldn’t require a long-term deal as he enters his age 34 season.
Bieber has had a terrific profession, and he’s one of many youthful free agent pitchers on this class. Like Strider, he underwent elbow surgical procedure after simply two begins in 2024. It wouldn’t be ultimate to have each Strider and Bieber shelved to begin the season, but when Anthopoulos sees a cut price, he might resolve to leap on it anyhow.
After 4 straight seasons with an xERA round 5.00, Flaherty bounced again in an enormous method in 2024. Every little thing in regards to the profile appears to be like sustainable – he completed prime 5 in Okay%, Okay-BB%, and CSW% (% of pitches that have been known as strikes or whiffs) whereas additionally ranking very nicely in FIP and xERA. However his velocity drop and coinciding struggles this October might give some groups pause.
Following a dominant 4 yr run, Kevin Gausman had a down yr in 2024, with regarding dips in velocity, SwStr%, and Okay%. He was sidelined in spring coaching with a shoulder harm, and it’s potential that the harm caught with him all yr, or maybe the delayed ramp might have thrown off his mechanics. In fact, it’s additionally potential that he’s beginning to present his age, or that the shoulder harm will proceed to impede his velocity. However nonetheless, he surpassed 170 IP for the fourth yr in a row and posted a still-solid 3.83 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and a pair of.9 fWAR in 2024. Shopping for low is usually AA’s fashion, and with two remaining years at $23M per yr, he may see it as a very good addition to the workforce even when he’s extra of a Morton-esque innings-eater as an alternative of an ace.
Tier Three – Again-of-Rotation Arms
(In case you are on a cellular system then this desk is greatest seen in panorama mode.)
Accessible Again-of-Rotation SP
Participant
2025 Age
IP
Okay%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
fWAR
Participant
2025 Age
IP
Okay%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
fWAR
Nick Pivetta
32
468
27.1%
8.1%
1.50
4.27
4.17
5.4
Sean Manaea
33
457.1
24.5%
8.1%
1.26
4.23
4.09
5
Nick Martinez
34
359
21.4%
6.7%
1.00
3.31
3.79
5.3
Nathan Eovaldi
35
424
23.1%
6.3%
1.25
3.76
3.97
6.1
Luis Severino
31
373.1
22.2%
7.8%
1.45
4.36
4.53
3.1
Michael Wacha
33
428.1
21.3%
6.8%
1.05
3.3
3.87
7.5
Jeffrey Springs
32
184.1
27.5%
6.2%
0.98
2.44
3.1
4.2
Charlie Morton
41
500.2
25.9%
9.8%
1.17
4.06
4.2
5.2
Chris Bassitt
36
552.2
22.4%
7.6%
1.06
3.71
4.01
7.5
Max Scherzer
40
341.1
28.4%
5.8%
1.27
3.16
3.58
7.3
Justin Verlander
42
427.2
23.3%
5.8%
0.95
3.09
3.49
10.1
Andrew Heaney
34
380
25.5%
7.3%
1.42
4
4.22
4.6
Jose Quintana
36
411.1
19.4%
7.8%
0.77
3.39
3.74
6.5
Matt Boyd
34
124
25.3%
8.8%
1.09
4.14
3.89
1.8
Jakob Junis
32
265
22.3%
4.9%
1.12
3.8
3.69
2.9
Kyle Gibson
37
529.1
20.1%
7.6%
1.19
4.68
4.27
5.9
Walker Buehler
30
140.1
19.7%
7.3%
1.54
4.75
4.74
0.8
Tyler Anderson
35
499
19.0%
8.1%
1.05
3.82
4.25
6.8
Alex Cobb
37
317.1
21.8%
6.2%
0.82
3.74
3.4
5.8
There are too many names right here to spend time on each, however I’ll point out a couple of that intrigue me at their potential price.
Let’s begin with Charlie Morton. If he needs to proceed pitching at 41 years previous, the Braves will nearly definitely let him, and which may imply the tip of the dialogue for beginning pitchers. It wouldn’t be the worst factor. He’s a dependable #5, sometimes good for 30+ begins with an ERA solidly under 4.50. And in the event you take heed to any of the gamers or coaches, you’ll rapidly study that he’s one of the crucial impactful personalities within the Braves clubhouse.
Nick Pivetta has by no means had an ERA beneath 4.00, however there may be some intrigue in his profile. HRs are a significant difficulty, however he does persistently submit a robust Okay-BB%. You may do not forget that simply final offseason, the Braves traded for an additional Boston SP with a robust Okay-BB% and a few HR points, and he did all proper for himself in Atlanta.
Nick Martinez has quietly carried out at a excessive degree whereas filling a number of completely different roles since returning to MLB three years in the past after spending a number of years in Japan.
Scherzer and Verlander, like Morton, have declined over the previous couple of seasons and could possibly be able to retire. If wholesome, it’s potential that the Braves may nonetheless see a path for one among them to pitch at a comparatively excessive degree – notably Scherzer, who retained his ordinary high-level CSW% and SwStr% however noticed his Okay% dip in his 9 begins in 2024. If he can keep that CSW% and SwStr% in 2025, I’d count on the Okay% to spike again up nearer to 30%.
On the commerce market, Chris Bassitt might make some sense to exchange Morton as an older veteran who persistently makes 30+ begins with respectable back-of-rotation numbers. Whereas Jeffrey Springs has handled some main accidents over the previous two years, he additionally has been a quietly elite pitcher over the previous three seasons, and the cost-conscious Rays will see his wage double this offseason.
Tier 4 – First rate however Undependable, or Simply Plain Unhealthy
(In case you are on a cellular system then this desk is greatest seen in panorama mode.)
Fringe-Rotation SP Choices
Participant
2025 Age
IP
Okay%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
fWAR
Participant
2025 Age
IP
Okay%
BB%
HR/9
ERA
FIP
fWAR
Trevor Williams
33
300.2
19.7%
7.3%
1.47
4.07
4.65
2.5
Frankie Montas
32
296.1
22.9%
8.7%
1.28
4.43
4.25
3.4
Miles Mikolas
36
575.1
17.3%
4.3%
1.20
4.43
4.12
7.9
Michael Lorenzen
33
381
18.7%
9.6%
1.13
3.9
4.57
3.4
Chris Flexen
30
400
16.6%
8.6%
1.49
5.02
5.06
1.4
Michael Soroka
27
112
23.0%
11.4%
1.77
5.22
5.42
0
Martín Pérez
34
473
18.3%
8.3%
1.03
3.82
4.25
4.8
Spencer Turnbull
32
85.1
22.3%
9.5%
1.16
4.32
4.46
0.6
Ross Stripling
35
308.2
17.7%
4.5%
1.14
4.52
3.93
3.9
Kyle Hendricks
35
352
16.4%
6.3%
1.25
4.81
4.49
3.3
Joe Ross
32
74
20.6%
9.0%
0.85
3.77
3.83
0.9
Steven Matz
34
197.1
21.9%
6.7%
1.19
4.47
4.01
2.7
Lance Lynn
38
422.2
23.2%
7.1%
1.68
4.71
4.7
3.6
Jordan Lyles
34
361.2
17.3%
6.4%
1.62
5.28
4.98
1.7
Jose Ureña
33
250.2
14.8%
9.5%
1.33
4.74
5.1
0.2
Cole Irvin
31
369.1
17.5%
5.5%
1.32
4.41
4.44
2.2
Domingo Germán
32
201.2
22.6%
7.8%
1.56
4.55
4.73
1.5
Patrick Corbin
35
507.1
17.2%
7.1%
1.51
5.68
4.85
3.3
John Means
32
52.1
16.3%
4.0%
1.03
2.75
4
1
With such a deep marketplace for pitchers, a number of of those guys might should take a minor league deal to seek out themselves in baseball in any respect. I wouldn’t count on any of those pitchers to attraction to Anthopoulos, however let’s contact on a couple of which may go as a kind of backup plan for the backup plan’s backup plan.
There could possibly be a contact of intrigue with fan favourite Michael Soroka, who spent a lot of the season struggling within the White Sox bullpen however completed on a excessive observe by placing out greater than 40% of the batters he confronted over his last 24.1 IP. Spencer Turnbull had a pleasant yr for Philly, however he’s solely surpassed 60 IP as soon as in his profession (and nil instances since 2019). Joe Ross returned to an enormous league mound in 2024 for the primary time since 2021, and he pitched equally to 2024 Luis Severino in his 74 IP whereas splitting time between the bullpen and rotation. Mikolas might be probably the most dependable pitcher in any of the tiers with regards to making 30+ begins, however he’s been horrible over the previous two years, and the Cardinals would definitely like to be rid of his $17.7M wage in 2025.
Closing Ideas
Will probably be fascinating to see how Anthopoulos approaches the SP emptiness. There are two competing ideologies right here – do you get a dependable innings-eater since the remainder of the rotation has sturdiness issues? Or do you get one other high-ceiling arm to provide you another choice in October so that you simply’re not caught beginning Charlie Morton or AJ Smith-Shawver or Bryce Elder in a playoff recreation if one of many current prime 4 arms will get harm?
Ideally, you discover sturdiness and star efficiency multi function package deal. To that finish, and contemplating the anticipated worth factors, my private prime 5 choices are Crochet, Fried, Grey, Gausman, and Kikuchi. Every of these guys made 28+ begins in 2024, and every has proven the flexibility to pitch like a top-of-the-rotation arm.
Kikuchi appears unlikely to me provided that he’s a Scott Boras shopper, and Asian-born gamers haven’t typically come to Atlanta in free company. Crochet is prone to be dealt this winter, however practically each contending workforce ought to be in on him, and lots of different groups will have the ability to beat any prospect package deal Atlanta can put collectively. Grey’s $35M wage in 2026 might show prohibitive, nevertheless it’s additionally potential that the Cardinals might tackle Jorge Soler’s wage as a part of the deal so as to offset wage and web a greater prospect return. Buying and selling Gausman was maybe the most important mistake of AA’s tenure as Braves GM, and whereas I’m positive he would like to carry him again to Atlanta as some type of redemption, it’s unclear if Toronto might be consumers or sellers getting into their last season with each Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette beneath contract.
The simplest path, and maybe the neatest, is to chew the bullet and pay Max Fried. The Braves have locked in a lot of their stars to below-market extensions, and it’s labored brilliantly for them to this point, however possibly that is the yr that Anthopoulos lastly indicators a participant to a long-term deal that doesn’t instantly really feel like an apparent steal for the workforce. How candy it will be for that contract to go to somebody who’s already beloved by his teammates and fanbase.