Previewing the offseason outfield market for the Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves cleared up what was a fairly muddy OF/DH image final week by buying and selling Jorge Soler to the Angels for SP Griffin Canning. Whereas it was stunning to see it finished on the literal first day of the offseason, this transfer was completely anticipated. Soler earnestly proved final season that he can’t deal with an on a regular basis defensive OF job (-10 DRS and -7 OAA in simply 40 video games), so until they had been prepared to stay with nothing greater than a heat statue in one in all their nook OF spots, Atlanta wanted to commerce one in all their two DHs. Incumbent Marcell Ozuna has 10-and-5 rights (which means he can veto any commerce) and was the Braves greatest hitter all 12 months final 12 months, so the one actual query was what the return can be for Soler.

On that entrance, somebody like Canning was about what I’d have anticipated. He’s a effective #5 SP with one 12 months of management remaining, projected by MLB Commerce Rumors to earn $5.1M in his final 12 months of arbitration. Scouts have been intrigued with Canning’s stuff previously, and LAA isn’t precisely identified for pitcher growth. I’m guessing Anthopoulos sees some alternative to shake up his pitch combine or alter his mechanics and get extra out of him. That, or it’s potential they simply nontender him and use the commerce as a full wage dump of Soler.

Present State of the Atlanta OF

With Soler headed west and Ozuna nonetheless entrenched because the on a regular basis DH, right here’s the OF image because it at the moment stands. Michael Harris II will man middle discipline, and we’re all hoping that his scalding end to 2024 carries over into 2025 (and that he will get some higher batted ball luck on the entire). 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. ought to return from his most up-to-date ACL damage inside the first month or two of the season, although reportedly not by Opening Day. Exterior of that, Jarred Kelenic is underneath contract for 4 extra seasons, and Eli White represents a pleasant back-of-the-bench choice who possesses impactful velocity late and may fill in defensively within the outfield in addition to the infield (in a pinch).

When Kelenic arrived in Atlanta, there was hope that the Braves may unlock among the promise he confirmed as a high 10 general choose within the draft and eventual high 10 prospect in baseball. Sadly, that evolution didn’t are available in 2025. He posted career-worst SwStr% and Chase% and produced simply 0.5 fWAR in 131 video games. New hitting coach Tim Hyers could discover a option to get extra out of Kelenic, however with an 86 wRC+ in 2024 that precisely matches his profession wRC+ over 1,423 plate appearances, the Braves mustn’t plan to depend on him for a full-time position. I’d count on him for use as a platoon hitter whereas Ronald is out initially of the season, after which as a bench bat vs. RHP shifting ahead.

Lastly, they do have Ramón Laureano underneath group management, however I count on him to be non-tendered in a few weeks. It could be really surprising if AA declined the $8M group choice on Travis d’Arnaud to create monetary flexibility after which rotated and handed Laureano the $6.1M he’s estimated to obtain in arbitration. Sure, he had a 129 wRC+ in 226 PA with Atlanta, and that was a godsend. However the formulation he used to provide these outcomes probably gained’t work once more over a bigger pattern. Laureano’s plate self-discipline was appalling – 3.5% BB and 28.3% Okay – and whereas the standard of contact on balls in play was superb, his 17.5% HR/FB and particularly his .380 BABIP in Atlanta are extremely unlikely to repeat. We don’t even want to say the tough OF protection he exhibited to conclude that the Braves are unlikely to commit $6.1M to him.

Market Overview

This 12 months’s free agent class has a lot of high quality outfielders, even after you look previous Juan Soto and the eventual Brinks truck(s) that will probably be delivered to his checking account. There are fascinating choices from each the left and proper aspect of the plate, which is nice information for an Atlanta lineup that would actually use one other succesful left-handed bat. There are buy-low guys who could be curious about a one 12 months prove-it deal, and there are extra established hitters coming off nice years. The commerce market probably has much less to supply, however there are a few names price keeping track of.

There are many groups who will probably be searching for OF upgrades this winter, so whereas there are many choices, the highest names available on the market will probably include stiff competitors. Given the deficiencies of the offense in 2024 and the personnel readily available at current, I’d count on AA to be most aggressive on high quality left-handed hitters who can mash righties and get on base at an affordable clip.

Tier One – Juan Soto

(If you’re on a cellular machine then this desk is greatest considered in panorama mode.)

The concept of Soto to Atlanta most likely doesn’t warrant any extra phrases than a easy “lol,” however I’m gonna write some anyway.

In his time with Atlanta, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has by no means assured any participant greater than $23M in a single 12 months. Soto will virtually actually garner a contract with a median annual worth of a minimum of $40M. Whereas he’s given out vital extensions to gamers already within the org, the biggest free agent contract he’s signed was the 5 12 months, $80M deal he gave to Marcell Ozuna (who grew to become a free agent after his first 12 months in Atlanta). Soto is predicted to command a complete assure north of $500M, conservatively.

So yeah, the percentages are slim. You would possibly even say they’re zero. They usually most likely are! However, if there was ever a free agent participant to trigger AA to stray from his typical path, it might be Soto, which is why I’m leaving the door cracked. Nicely, not even actually cracked. Let’s say the door is closed and locked, however if you happen to assume to look very fastidiously, there’s a bobby pin on the bottom close by that’s the similar colour because the carpet.

Soto has walked greater than he’s struck out in every of the previous 5 seasons. His lowest stroll fee in a single season throughout that timeframe was 2024 – when he had Aaron Choose hitting straight behind him – and he nonetheless posted an 18.1% BB that ranked 2nd solely to Choose in MLB. His worst wRC+ in any season is 143 – 2 factors larger than Ronald Acuña Jr.’s profession wRC+ – which he produced in his age 20 season. He additionally hit a profession excessive 41 HRs in 2024, marking again to again seasons with 35+ HRs. He hits the ball terribly exhausting with consistency and controls the strike zone higher than anybody within the sport. It’s the most secure profile I’ve ever seen, and whoever pays him the motherload that he deserves getting into his age-26 season will virtually actually be glad they did.

Left discipline is a gap for Atlanta, left-handed hitting is a necessity for Atlanta, and there isn’t an apparent candidate on the present roster to fill the 2nd spot within the batting order. The 2024 Braves actually struggled to get on base, and Juan Soto has by no means posted an OBP beneath .400. There hasn’t been a free agent hitter that might extra completely complement and improve the place participant core since AA grew to become GM. If he desires to spend each greenback he has on Soto and roll with the present choices at SS, SP, and the bullpen, I may make the argument that it might be the perfect use of the cash. And no, it’s not gonna occur. Nevertheless it’s a minimum of just a little enjoyable to dream.

Tier Two – Above Common On a regular basis Gamers

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Jurickson Profar had a monster 2024 season, producing a 139 wRC+ and 4.3 fWAR. It was the post-post-hype breakout that the majority across the league had come to imagine would by no means occur. Every part in his 2024 season seems legit – a excessive stroll fee at 11.4%, a low strikeout fee at 15.1%, a superb .364 xwOBA that completely matched his precise manufacturing. He’s a switch-hitter with comparatively even splits, and his .380 OBP and 24 HRs from 2024 can be an idyllic match on the high of the order behind Ronald Acuña Jr. That mentioned, it’s robust to gauge what Profar’s market will probably be. He’s a below-average defensive OF, so the group that invests him will actually need to purchase in on the bat being for actual. If the breakout sticks, although, the skepticism that groups throughout the league will really feel may present the chance to land an distinctive bat at a below-market fee.

Anthony Santander has established himself as one of many higher HR hitters within the league, averaging 35 HRs per season over the previous three years. He does it by persistently pulling the ball within the air, however the lack of top-end exit velocities makes him an uncommon goal for Anthopoulos (particularly as a buy-high candidate following a career-high 44 HR and three.3 fWAR in 2024). He’s additionally extra of the low-OBP, high-SLG selection that the Braves have already got in spades. Like Profar, he’s a switch-hitter with comparatively even splits. Defensively, he’s beneath common, however not as unhealthy as you would possibly count on from a man who has spent loads of time at DH.

Brandon Lowe is primarily a 2B and hasn’t appeared within the OF since 2022. Within the restricted (and maybe outdated) outfield expertise he’s had, he’s graded out as a bit beneath common on protection. That mentioned, there are some issues working for him that would entice the Braves to take an opportunity on him taking part in out of place. First, he’s a very, actually good participant – he has a 126 wRC+ over elements of seven seasons within the huge leagues and has averaged 31 HR and three.7 fWAR per 150 video games performed. Second, he bats left-handed, mashing righties however nonetheless taking part in above-average in opposition to lefties (and a lot better than that in 2024). And eventually, he’s underneath contract for simply $10.5M in 2025 and has a really inexpensive $11.5M membership choice for 2026. The Rays are often trying to find methods to unlock their payroll, and buying and selling Lowe could be their greatest path this winter.

Fast hits on the remainder of the tier two choices: as high-strikeout, low-walk, high-slug RHH OFs who will probably be searching for massive multi-year offers following huge 2024 seasons, Teoscar Hernández and Tyler O’Neill don’t really feel like the correct match for the Braves roster. The Mariners 2025 payroll is larger than their 2024 payroll earlier than the offseason has even begun, so it’s not unimaginable to assume they might look to maneuver Randy Arozarena and his projected $11M arbitration wage. He’s been a persistently above-average hitter with stable on-base expertise and velocity, so if he does change into obtainable, he may very well be a very good goal for Atlanta. Ward shows good plate self-discipline and batted ball expertise, a profile that many have speculated would enchantment to Anthopoulos. AA has had plenty of success finishing trades with LAA in current seasons, and it actually shouldn’t shock anybody if he swings one other deal to amass Ward.

Tier Three – Questionable On a regular basis Gamers or Strong Robust-Facet Platoon Gamers

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Michael Conforto makes a very good little bit of sense for the Braves. He has a status as a strict platoon hitter, as mirrored by his taking part in time in SF and the contract predictions from FanGraphs (1/$10M) and MLB Commerce Rumors (2/$18M). Nevertheless, he had reverse splits in 2024 and has been near common in his profession vs. LHP, so it’s potential AA may take an opportunity on him because the on a regular basis man in LF. AA can even probably be drawn to the truth that he’s underperformed his effectively above-average xwOBA in every of the final three seasons he’s performed in, together with two years spent within the hitter’s hell that’s Oracle Park. Defensively, he’s graded out as barely beneath common over the previous couple of years. The most important roadblock to getting this one finished? He’s a Scott Boras consumer.

If the Braves determine to spend huge at SS or SP or within the bullpen, Max Kepler is a reputation to maintain a very shut eye on for the OF. He’s coming off a tough 2024 season that noticed his chase fee, whiff fee, BB%, and xwOBA all pattern within the mistaken course. Within the 5 seasons prior, nonetheless, he averaged a 110 wRC+, 10.4% BB, 18.2% Okay, 27 HR and three.1 fWAR per 150 video games. His lowest single season xwOBA in that stretch was .338 (for context, league common in 2024 was .315), and only a 12 months in the past he posted a .362 xwOBA and 123 wRC+ with 24 HR and a pair of.8 fWAR in simply 491 plate appearances. Oh, and he’s a superb defender, averaging +5 DRS and +7 OAA in RF over the previous 4 years. He’s actually struggled vs. LHP in his profession and must be handled as a strict platoon bat, however he’ll probably come very low-cost, and also you don’t need to wrinkle up your brow to think about a bounceback season from him.

Winker is simply barely higher defensively than Jorge Soler and can probably have his market restricted to DH duties as such. Verdugo has stable plate self-discipline, however he was a considerably below-average hitter in 2024 and has struggled with off-field points and clubhouse considerations. Springer is clearly in decline, and in 2024 he posted the primary below-average offensive season of his profession. However he has good plate self-discipline, has had an above-average xwOBA in each season, and he nonetheless grades out as a median defender. It’s potential the Blue Jays would cowl a piece of the $48.4M he’s owed between 2025 and 2026 in the event that they determine to promote or reduce payroll. The Rangers have acknowledged they intend to chop payroll this winter, and Adolis Garcia is owed $9.3M in 2025 earlier than reaching his closing 12 months of arbitration in 2026. Garcia had an abysmal 2024 after three straight superb seasons, and it appears probably that the Rangers will maintain him for now as a substitute of promoting at his lowest potential worth. Even at his greatest, he’s the RHH, low-OBP, high-SLG kind of participant that might really feel redundant within the present lineup.

Tier 4 – Quick-Facet Platoons and Bench Bats

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There are virtually actually extra names that I’m lacking, however any of the blokes on this tier must be seen as complementary part-time gamers at greatest.

Adam Duvall had the worst season of his huge league, and plenty of assume it’s time for him to hold ‘em up. However he is only one 12 months faraway from a 116 wRC+ season in Boston with 21 HR in 92 video games, and he truly had a 135 wRC+ with stable strikeout and stroll charges in opposition to LHP in 2024. He’s clearly beloved within the Braves clubhouse, and it shouldn’t shock anybody to see him come again on both a non-guaranteed break up contract or a significant league contract round league minimal.

Probably the most intriguing identify on this class might be Randal Grichuk, who quietly posted a 139 wRC+ over 279 PA for Arizona this season. He crushed lefties (as he at all times has) but additionally produced in a small pattern vs. righties, which may make him an intriguing choice to platoon with a less expensive choice like Kelenic or Kepler ought to they show to be incapable of dealing with the majority of the timeshare vs. RHP.

We’ll shortly point out a number of different names on this tier. Hays is a full-on lefty-masher and would definitely priceless in a strict platoon. In the event that they nonetheless imagine in Kelenic and need to give him one other probability initially of the season, they may take into account including a veteran LHH bench bat on a reasonable contract who can be able to stepping in if Kelenic flounders. Outdated buddy Jason Heyward can be a enjoyable participant to fill that position. Merrifield may very well be curious about returning as a bench participant in 2025, and his versatility and velocity can be a pleasant weapon to have on the roster. Bader appears prone to get a full-time position someplace due to his wonderful CF protection, however Michael A. Taylor may very well be a stable short-side platoon choice who can cowl CF if Harris wants a day without work. Postseason legend and vibes god Enrique Hernández can be a enjoyable match within the Braves clubhouse, and his capacity to fill in all around the discipline can be helpful, however he’ll virtually certainly keep in LA, the place he’s completely beloved. Canha continues to be a productive hitter, but additionally spends most of his time at DH.

Conclusion

All of the wants for the Braves (SS, LF, SP, and RP) are intertwined this offseason. The roster is already superb and pretty costly, so I wouldn’t count on huge splashes at each place of want, however it’s essential that they enhance the roster, and people are the open spots they need to work with.

In the event that they persist with Orlando Arcia at SS, you’d need to see them add some pitching and snag a stable on a regular basis OF like Profar or construct a robust platoon like Conforto + Grichuk. In the event that they spend huge on Willy Adames or Ha-Seong Kim, perhaps they are going to add a extra low-budget platoon like Kepler + Duvall. In the event that they persist with Arcia AND decide to giving Kelenic one other shot (a state of affairs that I undoubtedly don’t see occurring), you’d need to see huge additions to the pitching employees – maybe the returns of Fried and Minter plus a dominant right-handed reliever to interchange Jiménez (Devin Williams, anyone?).

In my thoughts, the most definitely OF targets for Anthopoulos are Profar, Conforto, Kepler, and Ward. However, it doesn’t matter what he chooses to do, one truth certainly stays. Till Juan Soto has signed the dotted line with some blasphemous group that Braves followers despise, I’ll fantasize day and night time of this make-believe lineup:

Ronald Acuña Jr. RF

Juan Soto, LF

Austin Riley, 3B

Matt Olson, 1B

Marcell Ozuna, DH

Ozzie Albies, 2B

Michael Harris II, CF

Sean Murphy, C

Orlando Arcia, SS