Preseason Prep – March 18, 2025 – Fantasy Baseball 2025

Preseason Prep – March 18, 2025

Julio Rodriguez

Julio had a down yr in 2024, as he slashed solely .273/.325/.409 in comparison with his line of .275/.333/.485 in 2023. He homered 32 instances in 2023 and solely 20 instances in 2024, which is why the slugging share was reduce by practically 80 factors. Fortunately, there are many causes ot be optimistic about Julio in 2025, and the premise for that’s that his underlying markers had been barely modified between 2023 and 2024. His chase charge remained parked at 37% between each years and his whiff charge solely elevated 2.6%. We really noticed a profession low in GB% at 44.6 and profession excessive in FB% at 26.2. His xwOBA and xwOBACON had been practically equivalent between the 2 years as properly. The principle purpose Julio hit so few homers was as a consequence of his efficiency in opposition to non-fastballs. He hit 18 homers in opposition to non-fastballs in 2023 and solely 7 in 2024. The utilization share that he noticed was additionally unchanged, nevertheless. His xwOBA in opposition to breaking stuff dipped from .348 to .307 and his EV dipped from 92.2 to 88.2. His whiff charge in opposition to breaking stuff made a small leap from 35.5% to 38%, which is not sufficient to warrant a whole meltdown in efficiency in opposition to the pitch. It should be the case that Julio’s swing determination in opposition to breaking stuff obtained him in bother, which looks like one thing that may be adjusted with the assistance of an excellent analytics group. You may safely draft Julio within the second spherical.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. 

Vlad Jr. has had an up and down profession, albeit that up and down is alternating between nice and elite. 2024 was a type of elite years that justifies his rating way back as a generational prospect. Vlad Jr. slashed .323/.396/.544. The typical was a profession excessive, and the OBP and SLG had been only a contact behind his monster 2021. The profession excessive common was pushed by a profession excessive LA Candy-Spot of 35.1%, good for 62nd Percentile. Vlad has historically struggled to take care of a constant common to excessive variability in his launch angle. His well-known 2021 season solely put him in fiftieth Percentile in that class, and that is why some fantasy managers are completely enamored and others are soured. There may be nothing mistaken with him, apart from a small swing airplane subject, that is simply the character of the beast. The truth is, Vlad was horrible by this metric in 2022, coming in at simply fifth Percentile within the bigs, but nonetheless posted 32 homers and a .480 slugging. The exit velos are high of the category, they usually’ve all the time been, but when Vlad Jr. has actually improved his potential to attenuate his launch angle commonplace deviation…be careful.

Tarik Skubal

Skubal hinted at his monstrous 2024 by posting 80 robust innings of two.80 ball in 2023. This can be a pitcher that just about lacks flaws. Skubal throws onerous (96.8), and you may spherical up with him being a lefty. He’s a chase (77th Percentile) and whiff (ninetieth Percentile) collector that additionally throws a great deal of strikes 4.6 BB%.  He additionally will get tons of groundballs (46.4%, 72nd Percentile). Do not overthink it. In case you actually need one pitcher within the first two rounds, it is him or Paul Skenes.

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez has been some of the constant hitters the previous 4 seasons, hitting over 31 homers in every season, driving in 97 or extra in three and scoring 88 or extra in three. He is additionally batted over .290 three years operating. It is protected to say what you see is what you;re going to get, and that factor you are getting is a good factor. Nonetheless, I am extra involved about his group. The Astros are projected to attain 4.60 runs per recreation in 2025, proper in keeping with their 4.60 charge in 2024 and 4.58 charge in 2022. They had been at 5.10 in 2024. Alvarez’s 88 runs and 88 RBI’s  really feel somewhat gentle for somebody that you’ll should pay for, and based mostly on projections, he has a questionable likelihood to go 90/90. Issue within the positional restriction, and I’ve a tough time reaching for him within the early second, and suppose he comfortably belongs as one of many most secure bats at the back of the second.

Jackson Merrill

The runner up NL Rookie of the 12 months took the league by storm along with his well timed hits and stellar centerfield protection. He completed the yr slashing .292/.326/.500 because of a robust second half that noticed him put up a .945 OPS. I completely consider Merrill will repeat, and even take a step ahead in 2025. Merrill’s high quality of contact is already elite, as his .372 xwOBA and 39.6% La Candy Spot each got here in at 94th Percentile. His greatest flaw is that he did not stroll a lot, simply 4.9%, and that will not reduce it in factors or OBP leagues. Fortunately, Merrill does not whiff a lot (20.5%) and chases a ton (34.4%).  His zone contact was 3.8% above large league common, however his chase contact was additionally 6.4% above common, so his potential to make contact typically is strong. Since he has inherent contact expertise, reeling within the method only a hair would work wonders for the stroll charge, and possibly even high quality of contact. You may safely draft Merrill at any level within the third spherical, and little question late second if you happen to’re not in a factors or OBP league.

Manny Machado

Machado’s 2024 was largely much like his 2023, except for a bump in SB from 3 to 11. He clearly benefited from the extra runner-friendly setting, as his fifteenth Percentile dash pace does not encourage any confidence shifting ahead. Machado was on tempo for a down yr till he posted a .543 SLG within the second half. His 92.5 EV is pushed by 93rd Percentile bat pace, and whereas his 12.7 LA was a profession low, his 33.8 LA Candy-Spot was proper in keeping with his profession common. I see no purpose to consider that Machado will not be the identical participant in 2025, with the exception that I would not rely on these 11 steals.

Chris Sale

After taking a multi-year hiatus from being an absolute star, Sale bounced again in 2024 and regarded like his Cy Younger self, finally successful the award for the primary time in his profession after 7 consecutive top-10 finishes from 2012-2018. Sale’s 32.1 Ok% was his highest since 2019, and was really only a tad above his profession excessive. He was a monster within the whiff (31%) and chase (33.5%) classes, so there isn’t any purpose to consider the strikeouts are going away quickly. He throws tons of strikes (5.6%) and will get tons of groundballs (46%). His .351 xwOBACON was second lowest of his profession. I see no purpose of any sort as to why we should not think about him to be an ace. Furthermore, the Braves ought to as soon as once more be a strong offensive lineup. I really like him at his early spherical 4 ADP.

Cole Ragans

Ragans had a wonderful second half in 2023, which made him a sleeper choose in 2024 drafts. For people who took the gamble, he greater than paid off his ADP and was an ace for Kansas Metropolis. Ragans punched out 29.3% of batters whereas solely strolling 8.8%.  His high quality of contact in opposition to is definitely pretty pedestrian. His 15.2 LA is a contact excessive and his 35.4% Onerous Hit charge is 76th Percentile. Ragans is an ace by definition, however at this mid 4th spherical ADP, that’s actually actually wealthy for a pitcher that’s “nice” however not wonderful. The traits are actually good, simply not elite. That being stated, I am not out on him, I simply do not consider he is the kind of man whose ERA will begin with a 2, and xERA (3.31) and xFIP (3.46) agree. He must fall to me a spherical later to turn into a price.

Oneil Cruz

Cruz has out of this world exit velocities, hitting the ball over 120 a number of instances. His .462 xwOBACON is off the charts. The standard of contact is actually undebatable, the problem is that Cruz is each a free swinger and has contact points. He whiffed at a 34.1% clip, good for fifth Percentile. His 31.7% chase charge is sweet for twenty seventh Percentile. Yikes. Fortunately, his chase contact is 9.7% under large league common, so the standard of contact is not struggling in that sense. His zone swing is a contact low, 4% under common and his zone contact is 6% under common. This can be a pure contact subject, and at 26 years previous, there is no such thing as a assure that’s going away. He has not improved this downside in any respect in 4 years. Depend him in for 20/20, however do not be shocked if there are some ebbs and flows with batting common. He’s an extremely dangerous play in factors leagues, and whose ADP must be mightily knocked down in these codecs. 

Brent Rooker

Rooker was an upside play late in drafts final yr and boy did that repay. After slashing .246/.329/.488 in 2023, these numbers noticed heavy jumps to .293/.365/.562 in 2024. The standard of contact is among the strongest within the bigs, as he posted a .510 xwOBACON and .380 xwOBA. xBA (.266) and BABIP (.362) suppose the batting common is a bit inflated and I’d agree. WE not often see gamers strike out at 28.8% and whiff at 34.1% (fifth Percentile) hit this excessive for a mean. Fortunately, Rooker does the Isaac Paredes factor the place his Pull Air % (23.6, in comparison with 16.6 MLB Common) permits him to outplay his anticipated metrics by a margin. I nonetheless don;t suppose he’ll bat .293 once more. Fortunately the 9.6 BB% provides him extra stability in comparison with the like of Oneil Cruz. That being stated, do not draft Rooker as a “protected” or “ground” play. Perceive that there’s danger right here within the AVG and OBP division, though I do be ok with the homers persevering with to reach in teams of a minimum of 30.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto 

Yamamoto had a robust first season within the States, posting a 3.44 xERA and a pair of.86 xFIP. The discrepancy relies on xERA being pushed by high quality of contact in opposition to. Whereas Yamamoto does not stroll many (6%) and strikes out loads (28.5%), he did enable a Onerous Hit charge of 41.3% (twenty seventh Percentile). Fortunately, he is a groundball man (48.3%) who posted an 8.4% LA in opposition to, in order that high quality of contact has restricted upside. That is the context by which xERA and xFIP would disagree with one another. Yamamoto has slight fastball points, solely getting whiff on the pitch at 17.6%, properly behind his different pitches. If he can alter his utilization to the splitter and curveball barely extra, we might see higher outcomes. I view Yamamoto as a strong ground, strong upside play who will likely be dependable and performs for an excellent group.

Michael King

King was extremely dependable in his first full season as a starter, making thirty starter and throwing 173.2 innings. He posted a wholesome 27.7 Ok% and eight.7 BB%. His potential to restrict onerous contact was unimaginable, as he surrendered solely a 30.3% Onerous Hit charge and 85.7 EV in opposition to. Essentially the most spectacular factor about King is how properly his Sinker performed. It had solely a .308 xwOBA in opposition to and .225 xBA. Whereas it does not get whiffs, which is not atypical for a Sinker, it does play significantly better than his 4 Seam. King has an all-around wholesome profile with a deep pitch combine, and one which he actually mixes properly with. xFIP (3.50) and xERA (3.59) do not like him that a lot, however he’s an excellent protected guess to not blow up and to offer strong worth on an excellent group.

Josh Hader

Hader has been a curler coaster for fantasy managers just lately. His ERA the final {couples} years are 1.23, 5.22, 1.28, and three.80. Hader’s xFIP these years are 2.35, 2.94, 3.52, and a pair of.93. Posting a 5.22 ERA with a 2.94 xFIP in a single yr and a 1.28 ERA with a 3.52 xFIP the following yr is evil villain stuff. He’s clearly onerous to foretell, however let’s attempt to do it anyway. Hader continues to be extensively robust to hit, sitting at a hundredth Percentile in whiff charge (40.5%) and 92nd Percentile in Chase charge (33.4%). He additionally solely walks guys at 9%, a really affordable charge for a better. The one technique to have that depth of stuff with that reasonable of a stroll charge is by way of insanely unhealthy luck or simply making occasional actually large errors within the zone. Sadly for Hader he lacks a groundball providing. His 21.2 LA final yr is sky excessive. He has a 38.1 FB% in opposition to and 23.8 Pull Air %. Each are sky excessive, no pun supposed. He posted his highest House Run% (4.3) since 2019. You guessed it, that charge is properly above common. Hader’s good and unhealthy years actually come right down to an remoted group of in-zone pitches that both get hit for homers are fall for warning monitor flyouts. That is the character of this participant. 

Mason Miller

Miller may need a few of the finest stuff on the earth. He struck out 41.8% of batters, which is actually off the charts, and did so why solely strolling a league common 8.4% of batters. His .306 xwOBACON is comically low, as is his .150 xBA in opposition to and .206 xwOBA. This is perhaps one of the best pitcher on the earth on pure potential alone. Sadly, Miller performs for the Athletics, who will not be projected to win many video games this yr. Whereas the brand new ballpark in Sacramento is supposedly very pitcher pleasant, that may make a marginal distinction for Miller. He wants his group to win extra. Both means, that is the most secure reliever by way of ratios on all the board.

Royce Lewis

Lewis will as soon as once more make a visit to the injured record after pulling his hamstring operating out of the field in a spring coaching recreation. The damage is supposedly not critical, but additionally critical sufficient to warrant an IL stint once we nonetheless have a pair weeks of spring coaching left. I usually do not prefer to label non-pitchers as damage susceptible, however Lewis and the IL have spent fairly a bit period of time collectively. Whereas the previous first spherical choose nonetheless has some hype to his identify, there are issues within the underlying information that I do not like. Lewis has taken 605 plate appearances within the final three seasons, which has resulted in 33 homers and 6 stolen luggage. Given the damage historical past, I do not consider these stolen bases are dependable, particularly given his twenty eighth Percentile dash pace, which has declined yearly. Final yr he chased at 33.3% and whiffed at 27%. His 87.1 EV was properly under common. Lewis falls within the Isaac Paredes class, the place his 29.1% Pull Air % is ginormous excessive, and can absolutely lead to homers. The reliability of this participant is simply so low, and I fear he’s turning into a homer-only nook man.