The Cardinals are embarking on a bizarre offseason. The staff has fallen wanting expectations and this might be John Mozeliak’s final operating the staff earlier than he palms issues off to Chaim Bloom. They undoubtedly have expertise, however they want an organizational reset to shake up the roster and get youthful.
Veteran Nolan Arenado is among the contracts they are going to be aggressive about shifting this low season. The ten-time Gold Glove third baseman will flip 34 subsequent April, and is owed $74 million over the subsequent three seasons, plus thousands and thousands in wage deferrals. He has a no-trade clause however is prepared to waive it in the appropriate deal, and is even prepared to maneuver to first base to create roster flexibility for his new staff.
Even after 12 seasons within the huge leagues, Arenado continues to be a productive Main League common, posting 2.5 rWAR this season. His willingness to maneuver to first base is good, however buying him to play first base is like shopping for a PS5 to function a paperweight. Arenado was a Gold Glove finalist this 12 months and was third amongst all third baseman in Outs Above Common. He’s up there with Adrian Beltre and Brooks Robinson among the many greatest defenders at third of all-time, and whereas he might have misplaced a step he’s nonetheless among the many greatest within the league.
He has fallen a bit extra with the bat, though he nonetheless posted an OPS+ of 101 this season. As lately as 2022 he was a 7.7 rWAR participant, ending third in MVP voting with a line .293/.358/.533 and 30 residence runs. His numbers have declined since then, however this 12 months he managed to hit .272/.325/.394 with 16 residence runs. It was the worst slugging proportion of his profession, but it surely was Ruthian in comparison with the .232/.287/.352 line the Royals acquired from their third basemen this 12 months.
Whereas Arenado doesn’t stroll a ton, he doesn’t strike out a lot both. His 14 % strikeout price over the previous 4 seasons is Twenty first-lowest in baseball. This 12 months he had a contact price of 84.4 %, simply forward of Jonathan India, who the Royals simply acquired.
However the energy has largely evaporated. His barrel price and hard-hit price plummeted this 12 months. He hit 21 “no doubter” residence runs in 2021 – he hit simply two this 12 months. Simply 12 of his 16 residence runs would have been out at Kauffman Stadium.
Buying an older participant dropping participant for the type of wage Arenado is scheduled for could be a really dangerous transfer. The Cardinals would definitely need to eat some cash to make this palatable, however Katie Woo of The Athletic expresses doubts the staff is prepared to do pay to maneuver him.
The Cardinals possible would resist consuming important cash in a commerce, however potential suitors may resist giving up higher expertise if they might not purchase Arenado at a reduced price.
Baseball Commerce Values places Arenado’s commerce worth at -$22 million, which appears about proper. He’s scheduled to make $32 million subsequent 12 months, $27 million in 2026, and $15 million in 2027. If the Cardinals would eat $11 million every season over the subsequent two years of that deal, the contract is a little more palatable though a brand new staff continues to be paying a hefty wage for an older participant with diminished energy. Then there are the tough deferrals that run by way of 2041 that must be sorted out.
The free agent marketplace for hitters isn’t nice this winter, but it surely appears extra enticing to pay a Tyler O’Neill or Jurickson Profar to improve the outfield than to surrender a doubtlessly bigger wage plus prospects to get Arenado at this level in his profession. If the Cardinals are really determined to maneuver his contract and are prepared to eat much more of his wage, there’s a level the place it is sensible for the Royals to inquire about his providers. However Father Time is undefeated, and whereas the Royals had a productive 34-year-old of their very own in Salvador Perez, to gamble on two gamers staying productive and wholesome at that age is kind of dangerous.
