One of many greatest storylines of the offseason has been the Cardinals’ thus far unsuccessful makes an attempt at shifting veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. Because the membership scales again its payroll and focuses on youth, each the Cardinals and Arenado himself have expressed a want to maneuver on this winter. In concept, shifting an eight-time All-Star who’s simply two seasons faraway from being an MVP finalist shouldn’t be an particularly tough activity, however a confluence of things has made issues very difficult for St. Louis’s entrance workplace.
The obvious limiting issue at play is Arenado’s hefty contract. The infielder is due $74MM over the following three seasons, and even with the Rockies poised to pitch in $10MM as a situation of the commerce that despatched him to St. Louis within the first place, it’s arduous to think about quite a few smaller and even mid-market golf equipment with the ability to abdomen the vast majority of that wage. Even for golf equipment who can afford to pay Arenado, it could be comprehensible if there was some stage of pause about committing that a lot cash to a hitter coming off a .272/.325/.394 slash line that was primarily league common (102 wRC+). Arenado’s glove continues to be sufficient to make him a roughly three-win participant even together with his diminished offensive numbers however the division rival Cubs’ difficulties to find a commerce accomplice when seeking to transfer Cody Bellinger this winter present how depressed the market can develop into for a three-win participant who’s making greater than they might fetch on the open market.
Issues are additional difficult by Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he’s seemed to be very comfy wielding as a way to direct the Cardinals’ negotiation efforts in direction of golf equipment he needs to hitch. Arenado blocked a commerce to the Astros in mid-December regardless of earlier perception that he would approve a commerce to Houston, largely as a result of he needed to see how the membership would fortify the roster after buying and selling away Kyle Tucker. That call to attend and see what was subsequent for Houston backfired, as they pivoted in direction of signing Christian Walker in a transfer that doubtless closed the door on Arenado becoming a member of the Astros.
Because the take care of the Astros fell via, the marketplace for Arenado’s companies has been exceptionally quiet, with the Cardinals starting to entertain the chance that Arenado may be in camp for the beginning of Spring Coaching and even nonetheless be within the membership’s beginning lineup on Opening Day. The Yankees reportedly tried to persuade the Cardinals to do a swap that will’ve despatched Arenado to the Bronx and right-hander Marcus Stroman to the St. Louis, however the Cardinals dismissed that provide with out even presenting it to Arenado as a result of a scarcity of curiosity in including Stroman to the fold. It’s hardly a shock that they wouldn’t wish to tackle Stroman and is $18.5MM wage for 2025, however that call solely serves to spotlight the monetary difficulties the Cardinals face in making an attempt to maneuver their third baseman.
At the same time as a commerce of Arenado has develop into much less doubtless because the calendar has flipped to 2025, there are at the least some causes for optimism. Arenado has reportedly develop into extra open-minded about what golf equipment he would approve a commerce to in current weeks, which might theoretically encourage renewed efforts from golf equipment just like the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers who’ve some stage of curiosity in him however initially believed that Arenado would block any commerce they labored out with the Cardinals. In the meantime, the Cardinals have indicated that they wouldn’t essentially want to chop payroll elsewhere if Arenado stays with the membership in 2025. It’s at the least theoretically attainable that’s merely a negotiation tactic, but when the Cardinals are actually not working below a mandate to chop payroll to a selected stage, then maybe they’ll be extra prepared to chip in money to assist pay down Arenado’s wage or settle for one other underwater contract as a part of the return.
One apparent catalyst that might spur Arenado talks again to the forefront of the recent range could be Alex Bregman discovering a brand new residence in free company. Bregman entered the winter ranked because the #3 free agent general and the highest obtainable infielder in line with MLBTR’s annual High 50 MLB Free Brokers record, however he’s discovered a comparatively quiet market to his level within the winter. The Crimson Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all recognized to be concerned in Bregman’s market thus far on at the least some stage. Whereas buying and selling Arenado to a division rival just like the Cubs is almost not possible to think about, the Astros have already moved on, and Toronto will not be aggressive sufficient to fulfill the veteran. The curiosity is mutual in at the least the case of the Crimson Sox, who at the moment determine to begin Arenado’s longtime Rockies teammate Trevor Story at shortstop regularly this yr. If Bregman had been to make a decision, and particularly one which noticed him find yourself in Houston, Chicago, or Toronto, it’s simple to think about Arenado’s market selecting up extra considerably.
How do MLBTR readers assume issues will play out? Will Arenado be in one other uniform earlier than Opening Day? And if that’s the case, will a deal get finished earlier than he’s scheduled to report back to the Cardinals for Spring Coaching on February 17? Have your say within the ballot beneath:
