The massive information round baseball this week is celebrity slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sticking in Toronto on a $500MM extension that can maintain him with the Blue Jays for the following 14 years. Whereas the deal is primarily notable due to Guerrero himself being one of many brightest younger stars within the sport whose free company had lengthy been anticipated by followers across the league, it’s additionally essentially the most agency assertion but from the Blue Jays that they absolutely intend to proceed trying to compete even amid an more and more tough AL East division.
Getting into Spring Coaching, the membership had quite a few key gamers set to return off the books inside the subsequent few seasons. That’s nonetheless the case for almost all of these gamers, with vital items like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho poised to hit the open market inside the subsequent two seasons. With that being stated, the membership’s offseason additions of Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander mix with their current extensions for Guerrero and Alejandro Kirk to provide the membership a gifted nucleus of place gamers to construct a brand new iteration of the membership round with pre-arb and early arbitration gamers like Ernie Clement, Bowden Francis, and Will Wagner serving to to additional construct out that basis.
With almost two full seasons till Gausman, Springer, and Varsho depart without cost company, it’s not fully clear what the Jays’ wants will appear to be by the point that comes round. Toronto’s impending losses of Bassitt, Scherzer, and Inexperienced come November will certainly must be addressed, however most groups want pitching each winter and changing these gamers ought to be pretty easy. With Guerrero signed, that leaves essentially the most pertinent query going through Toronto at this level as what to do with shortstop Bo Bichette. The 27-year-old was a consensus top-15 prospect within the sport when he got here as much as the majors again in 2019 and has spent most of his profession paired with Guerrero as one of many membership’s two up-and-coming stars.
Whereas Bichette has by no means had the MVP-caliber campaigns Guerrero posted throughout the 2021 and ’24 seasons, the hype surrounding him has largely been justified by his physique of labor within the majors. In 46 video games down the stretch in 2019 after a mid-season call-up, Bichette made a giant impression by slashing .311/.358/.571 with a 143 wRC+ and 11 homers in simply 212 plate appearances. A 29-game stint with Toronto throughout the shortened 2020 season noticed him come right down to Earth only a bit as he posted a 120 wRC+, however that degree of manufacturing proved to be very sustainable for Bichette as his first full three seasons noticed him slash .298/.339/.476 with a 125 wRC+ and 13.6 fWAR.
From 2021 to ’23, Bichette was sandwiched between Yordan Alvarez and Sean Murphy on the fWAR leaderboard, good for twenty second in baseball, and his 125 wRC+ allowed him to face shoulder-to-shoulder with prime infielders like Trea Turner and Alex Bregman. Between these sturdy numbers and his relative youth, Bichette appeared sure to be ticketed for a big payday with the one query being whether or not it might are available in Toronto or elsewhere. Sadly, the 2024 season threw all of that fully off the rails. Not solely was Bichette restricted to simply 81 video games final yr as a consequence of a number of calf strains and surgical procedure on his center finger, however he additionally struggled badly within the video games he was wholesome sufficient to partake in. In 336 journeys to the plate final yr, Bichette slashed simply .225/.277/.322 (71 wRC+).
A glance beneath the hood reveals that Bichette’s strikeout and stroll charges had been each pretty much as good as they’d ever been final yr, however he was fully sapped of his energy. He hit simply 4 house runs after commonly flashing 25-to-30 homer energy in earlier years. His .303 xwOBA recommended that he was getting considerably unfortunate when it comes to batted ball luck, and that seemingly contributed to a career-worst .269 BABIP. Whereas a batting common nearer to his xBA of .255 would have certainly helped his general manufacturing look a bit extra sturdy, the anticipated numbers aren’t all that sort within the energy division. His xSLG was simply .375, which whereas higher than his precise manufacturing final season, would’ve been nicely beneath common if he had sufficient plate appearances to qualify. That’s largely thanks to an enormous drop-off in barrel charge. Bichette barreled up simply 4.4% of his batted balls final yr, lower than half of his profession norm throughout the remainder of his profession.
A mediocre defender at shortstop even in his finest years, Bichette’s worth is so tied to his bat that final season’s struggles made it tough to think about him discovering the star-level contract in free company and not using a huge bounceback within the 2025 marketing campaign. Regardless of each Bichette himself and the Blue Jays as an entire failing to fulfill expectations final yr, Toronto opted to not commerce him forward of his remaining yr beneath staff management, betting on him to regain his kind this season. There’s nonetheless an extended approach to go on this season, however the early returns are wanting good on that call. Bichette’s .277/.333/.362 (103 wRC+) slash line coming into play as we speak remains to be pedestrian however nonetheless a giant enchancment over final yr, and extra importantly he’s resumed hitting the ball with authority (7.3% barrel charge, 46.3% Exhausting-Hit charge) in a means that largely aligns along with his profession norms.
Whereas it’s actually excellent news for each Bichette and the Blue Jays that the shortstop seems to be again to posting high quality offensive numbers, what which means for his future is unsure. There’s some similarities to Cody Bellinger in Bichette’s profile as a free agent, as the 2 gamers share All-Star caliber upside as bat-first choices at a premium defensive place that might make them very enticing in free company, however pair that upside with worrisome injury-riddled campaigns the place they regarded like below-replacement degree abilities. In the course of the 2023-24 offseason, Bellinger was restricted to a short-term deal by the market, although his three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs afforded him a wholesome AAV and a number of opt-out alternatives. Bellinger was advertising his age-28 season that winter similar to Bichette can be come November, although a definite lack of high-end positional expertise in free company this winter (exterior of star outfielder Kyle Tucker) might enable Bichette to discover a stronger market.
Nonetheless, that market uncertainty may very well be a part of why the Jays haven’t broached the opportunity of an extension with their shortstop. Bichette advised reporters again in February that the edges hadn’t had talks, and he reiterated to Hazel Mae of Sportsnet yesterday that “nothing’s on the desk” for him from the Blue Jays when it comes to an extension. Bichette has made it clear he’d like to stay in Toronto, citing a want to play for a single group all through his complete profession and proceed his partnership with Guerrero. If Bichette proves himself wholesome and efficient once more this yr, that might make loads of sense for a Blue Jays membership that can want extra offensive firepower than it obtained final yr even after including Santander to the combo. Alternatively, the Blue Jays have already got a luxurious tax payroll of $200MM for 2026 (per RosterResource) earlier than even contemplating arbitration-level contracts for gamers like Varsho and Clement.
That would make including one other huge wage to the books tough for the Blue Jays to abdomen, and the membership has seemingly set itself as much as higher abdomen the lack of Bichette by buying and selling for Gimenez. The 26-year-old has performed the overwhelming majority of his huge league video games at second base, however he has shortstop expertise and is considered maybe the perfect defensive second baseman in your complete sport, suggesting he ought to have little bother sliding over to the left aspect of the infield. Given Bichette’s aforementioned mediocre protection at quick, Gimenez might really show to be an improve on the place when it comes to his glove.
That will then imply needing to interchange Gimenez at second base and Bichette’s bat within the lineup, nonetheless. An enormous season from Wagner this yr might make that potential to do internally. Different inside choices who might assist out embrace Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jimenez. By way of exterior choices, this coming offseason has infielders like Gleyber Torres, Ha-Seong Kim, Alex Bregman and Trevor Story as prospects, relying on some opt-out selections.
How do MLBTR readers assume the scenario in Toronto will play out? Will Bichette be allowed to hit free company? And, in that case, will he be enjoying in Toronto or elsewhere come Opening Day 2026? Have your say within the ballot beneath:
