Because the Cardinals look to embrace a youth motion in John Mozeliak’s ultimate yr on the helm of the membership, their incapacity to commerce Nolan Arenado this winter has induced some problems. With Arenado ticketed for on a regular basis taking part in time at third base, St. Louis now has 5 gamers for 3 spots within the lineup: second base, left discipline, and heart discipline. Whereas none of these 5 gamers can play all three of these positions, the flexibility of Brendan Donovan to play both second base or left discipline connects the choices made within the outfield to these on the keystone.
Donovan and Lars Nootbaar are each roughly assured on a regular basis taking part in time with the Cardinals, and certainly one of them figures to be the membership’s beginning left fielder. Ought to Donovan begin in left discipline, it will push Nootbaar to heart, and that might open up second base for Nolan Gorman, who would have taken over for Arenado if the veteran have been traded. In the meantime, beginning Nootbaar in left would push Donovan again onto the infield, and in doing so would open up heart discipline for certainly one of Michael Siani or Victor Scott II.
Scott and Siani are very related gamers. Siani is just a little over a yr older than Scott, headed into his age-25 season whereas Scott has solely simply turned 24, and the pair mixed for almost 85% of the membership’s innings in heart discipline final yr. Each are left-handed hitters who’ve struggled to hit within the majors to date, however are very well-regarded for his or her pace and protection nonetheless.
Of the 2, Siani has the sting when it comes to large league expertise. After transient stints within the majors with the Reds and Cardinals in 2022 and ’23, Siani loved his first prolonged style of massive league motion final yr when he appeared in 124 video games for St. Louis and stepped as much as the plate 334 occasions. He hit a paltry .228/.285/.285 in that point, good for a 64 wRC+ that was 36% worse than the league common hitter and the eighth-lowest slash line amongst hitters with at the least 300 plate appearances. With that being stated, Siani went a superb 20-for-23 on the basepaths whereas posting +16 Outs Above Common, a 99th percentile determine that positioned him behind solely Nationals defensive standout Jacob Younger amongst outfielders.
Sadly, there’s little in Siani’s profile that means a considerably increased offensive ceiling than he demonstrated in 2024. His precise batting common and slugging share each outstripped his anticipated numbers in these classes by greater than 20 factors final yr, and his .322 BABIP, whereas not essentially unsustainable attributable to his glorious pace, is already on the increased finish of the anticipated vary for an everyday participant. That restricted offensive ceiling may open the door for Scott, a consensus top-100 prospect getting into final season who has beforehand proven flashes of offensive potential within the minor leagues. Scott’s .179/.219/.283 (40 wRC+) slash line in 53 video games for the Cardinals final yr was really worse than that of Siani, although his peripheral and anticipated numbers counsel the pair’s underlying efficiency was roughly the identical.
Most notably, Scott flashed extra energy potential than Siani with a 5.7% barrel price throughout his time within the majors final yr that greater than doubled Siani’s 2.3% determine. Scott additionally had 35 hard-hit batted balls to Siani’s 43 regardless of being afforded lower than half of the taking part in time. All of that, in addition to Scott’s glorious .323/.373/.450 slash line on the Double-A degree in 2023, means that Scott has a better offensive ceiling than Siani and could possibly be a extra impactful all-around participant if given the chance. Scott can be a possible recreation changer on the basepaths, having stolen an unbelievable 94 bases between Excessive-A and Double-A in 2023 and having adopted that up with 35 steals between Triple-A and the majors final yr.
Scott grades out extraordinarily nicely in heart discipline on scouting experiences and posted stable (+3 OAA) numbers in defensive metrics with comparatively minimal taking part in time final yr, however he would want enhance these numbers considerably to supply the form of league-leading protection Siani has proven himself to be able to. What’s extra, Scott’s bat took a regarding step backwards even at Triple-A final yr, when he slashed simply .210/.294/.303 in 82 video games. That lackluster exhibiting may counsel that Scott merely isn’t prepared for an additional bounce to the most important leagues, significantly on condition that the hole between MLB and Triple-A is even greater than that between the Triple- and Double-A ranges.
After all, one other viable choice can be merely inserting Nootbaar in heart discipline. An above-average large league hitter in every of his 4 MLB seasons to date, Nootbaar is clearly probably the most proficient hitter of the bunch however might be within the lineup in some capability no matter whether or not he’s taking part in heart discipline or not. Taking part in Nootbaar in heart, then, would really open up taking part in time for Gorman. The membership’s first-rounder again in 2018, Gorman was a league common bat throughout his rookie season in 2022 earlier than taking a giant step ahead the next yr, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 119 video games that yr. Sadly, issues fell aside for Gorman final yr as he struck out at a worrisome 37.9% clip and watched his slash line plummet to a lackluster .203/.271/.400 (87 wRC+).
Even final yr’s subpar offensive output is probably going higher than what could be anticipated from both Siani or Scott this yr, however to get Gorman’s bat into the lineup the Playing cards must sacrifice on protection. Nootbaar has logged 109 video games in heart discipline over the course of his profession, with a quite pedestrian +1 OAA throughout that comparatively sporadic taking part in time. Whereas it’s attainable that Nootbaar’s numbers may tick up with extra common taking part in time on the place, it’s clear he lacks the impactful protection potential of Siani or Scott. The membership’s baserunning would undergo if Gorman changed Siani or Scott within the lineup as nicely, as Gorman has by no means swiped greater than seven luggage in a season and has been a web unfavorable on the basepaths all through his profession based on FanGraphs’ BsR metric.
How ought to the Cardinals deal with their heart discipline conundrum? Ought to they follow Siani’s elite glove regardless of his lackluster offense? Move the baton to Scott regardless of questions on his offensive ceiling due to his elite pace and baserunning talents? Or ought to they slide Nootbaar over to heart regardless of pedestrian protection with the intention to maximize their lineup’s potential by making room for Gorman? Have your say within the ballot under:
