When the Tigers took Spencer Torkelson with the primary general decide in 2020, Baseball America described him as “the most secure decide on the high of the draft” and a possible “middle-of-the-order pressure,” à la Pete Alonso. And be mindful, they weren’t speaking about present-day Alonso, who’s struggling to discover a market in free company, however relatively a youthful model who had simply set the MLB rookie file with 53 dwelling runs in his debut marketing campaign.
Torkelson tore up the minor leagues in 2021, rising from Excessive-A to Triple-A and mashing at each stage. Forward of his rookie season in 2022, he was a consensus top-10 prospect within the recreation. Most sources, together with Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and The Athletic’s Keith Regulation positioned him within the high 5. The one gamers who ranked forward of him on each a kind of lists have been Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Suffice it to say, the long run was shiny for the younger first baseman.
But, the brilliant lights of the large leagues proved an excessive amount of for a 22-year-old Torkelson. He didn’t simply fail to succeed in his sky-high ceiling. Fairly, his supposedly sturdy ground utterly collapsed. In 110 video games, the righty batter barely managed a .200 common and a .600 OPS. He hit simply eight dwelling runs, and his .117 remoted energy was properly under common, particularly for a primary baseman. Whereas his anticipated stats have been barely extra promising, a Thirty fourth-percentile xwOBA might hardly assuage the very actual considerations about his lifeless bat. What’s extra, a mid-season demotion again to Triple-A did little to assist. He was surprisingly ineffective within the minors, too, posting a .738 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 35 video games.
Torkelson acquired off to a equally poor begin in 2023, however he turned issues round late within the yr. By the tip of July, he had a .707 OPS and 94 wRC+, with 15 dwelling runs in 104 video games. These have been higher numbers than he posted in 2022 however nonetheless disappointing for an MLB first baseman and properly under expectations. Then, from August 1 by the tip of the season, Torkelson lastly appeared to faucet into his full potential. He crushed 11 doubles and 16 dwelling runs in 55 video games, good for a .282 ISO. His .855 OPS and 133 wRC+ have been equally spectacular, and his .364 xwOBA was proper in step with his .362 wOBA. The pattern dimension was small, however contemplating all the pieces Torkelson had carried out in faculty and the minors to grow to be a top-10 prospect, it was laborious to not suppose the highly effective slugger was lastly turning into all the pieces the Tigers hoped he might be.
Then got here 2024. Over the primary two months of this previous season, Torkelson appeared like his rookie self once more, slashing .201/.266/.330 with a 71 wRC+. That led to a different minor league demotion, and issues didn’t look significantly better at Triple-A. The person who terrorized minor league pitchers in 2021 was nowhere to be seen, and he put up a .799 OPS and 108 wRC+ in 58 video games. Torkelson appeared higher upon his return to the Tigers in August, however his late-season efficiency wasn’t as convincing because it was in 2023. His 125 wRC+ was powered by a excessive BABIP and a wOBA greater than 20 factors above his xwOBA. Whereas his 11.3% stroll price was a promising signal, his 32.5% strikeout price recommended he was nonetheless typically overmatched in opposition to massive league pitching. That actually gave the impression to be the case within the playoffs, when he went simply 4-for-21 with an 82 wRC+ in seven postseason video games.
Three seasons into his main league profession, Torkelson’s high prospect shine has worn off. In near 1,500 plate appearances, he has failed to ascertain himself as an above-average hitter, not to mention an on a regular basis first baseman. The Tigers might afford to let him play by his points throughout their rebuild, however now that they’ve eyes on rivalry, it will likely be tougher to justify giving common reps to such a mediocre bat. To that time, they appear to have already changed him on the roster. After signing Gleyber Torres to play second base, Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that Colt Keith would be the staff’s major first baseman in 2025. With Keith at first base and Kerry Carpenter at DH, it’s laborious to see how Torkelson suits in. Torkelson was as soon as a extra promising prospect than both of them, however Carpenter has mashed on the main league stage (profession 136 wRC+), and the Tigers confirmed their religion in Keith with a six-year, $28.6425MM extension earlier than he’d even made his MLB debut. With no assured contract or a lot massive league success, Torkelson is on the surface trying in.
If Torkelson performs properly this spring, the Tigers might nonetheless discover a option to get him within the lineup. To that time, Harris says he instructed Torkelson, “When you’ve got a giant offseason and a giant spring coaching, there’s a task for you on this staff.” On the very least, the righty batter might be the quick aspect of a platoon with the lefty-batting Carpenter. Final yr, supervisor A.J. Hinch tried to defend Carpenter from southpaws, in opposition to whom he has a profession 69 wRC+. In the meantime, Torkelson has a 111 wRC+ in 357 profession PA in opposition to opposite-handed pitching. Keith is a left-handed hitter, too, so Torkelson might additionally spell him at first base with a tricky lefty on the bump. If high prospect Jace Jung struggles (and the Tigers don’t add one other third baseman in free company), the staff might be pressured to maneuver both Keith or Torres over to 3rd, releasing up taking part in time for Torkelson at first base. Lastly, Detroit might additionally take into account giving Carpenter extra run within the outfield if Torkelson is hitting properly sufficient to deserve the reps at DH.
After all, that each one depends on Torkelson doing sufficient to persuade the Tigers to provide him one other critical likelihood. Another route, and maybe the very best consequence for everybody concerned, could be buying and selling Torkelson to a staff that may supply him a extra common position. Not solely would possibly a change of surroundings do him some good, however constant taking part in time at a constant place can solely assist as he tries to determine issues out on the plate. One can perceive why Detroit is likely to be hesitant to promote low on a former first-overall decide. However, it will likely be laborious for him to extend his commerce worth when he isn’t taking part in daily. If the Tigers commerce him now, a minimum of they may assure some kind of return. A real rebuilding membership just like the Marlins might supply Torkelson probably the most taking part in time, however different groups that might be on the lookout for an affordable right-handed first base/DH bat embrace the Mariners, Padres, Pirates, and Twins. Torkelson nonetheless has an possibility, so sending him again right down to Triple-A Toledo is one other chance.
So, the place do MLBTR readers suppose Spencer Torkelson shall be come Opening Day? Share your ideas by voting within the ballot under!
