Through the 2021-22 offseason, the Tigers felt they had been shut sufficient to competing that it was time to begin spending. Then-GM Al Avila signed two main free brokers that winter: southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez and shortstop Javier Baez. These offseason strikes didn’t work out, usually talking. The Tigers misplaced 96 video games in 2022 as Rodriguez posted below-average numbers in an injury-marred season whereas Baez put up the worst full season by wRC+ of his profession with a determine of 89. Avila was fired that August, giving method to a brand new regime underneath president of baseball operations Scott Harris.
Baez, in the meantime, went on to have a pair of disastrous seasons marred by harm and ineffectiveness in 2023 and ’24, hitting a mixed .208/.251/.315 (56 wRC+) whereas being restricted to simply 216 video games by hip and again points. These accidents ultimately required season-ending hip surgical procedure final yr, leaving Baez on the sidelines whereas his crew went on a miracle run final September that led them to Recreation 5 of the ALDS. Getting into 2025, there have been heightened expectations for the Tigers following that September surge.
For Baez personally, nonetheless, expectations had by no means been decrease. The 32-year-old had a number of All-Star appearances and Gold Glove awards underneath his belt, however he entered 2025 with no specified function in Detroit regardless of the three years and $73MM remaining on his contract. Accidents throughout Spring Coaching paved the way in which for Baez to have a clearer function in Detroit, however even on Opening Day he was restricted to a utility function the place he would largely face left-handed pitching.
Issues modified as soon as the season started, nonetheless. Baez took fairly effectively to each middle subject and third base regardless of having just about no expertise within the outfield and solely sparing appearances on the scorching nook. In more moderen weeks, his function has moved from a part-time utility function to being the membership’s go-to possibility in middle subject, the place he’s began 16 of the membership’s final 20 video games. Baez has all the time been a formidable defender anyplace he performs when wholesome, so maybe the veteran taking to new defensive positions isn’t precisely shocking. Extra surprising than his glove work this yr has been his spectacular offensive manufacturing: he’s hit a whopping .319/.357/.513 with a wRC+ of 148 throughout 126 plate appearances.
Even when Baez was at his finest, he was a considerably fickle hitter. Whereas some seasons noticed Baez hit extraordinarily effectively, similar to his 2021 (117 wRC+) and 2018 (131 wRC+) campaigns, he was really beneath common on the dish in three of his six seasons as an on a regular basis participant for the Cubs. Provided that unevenness, Baez’s 89 wRC+, two-win efficiency throughout his first season with Detroit wasn’t extremely surprising. And when the accidents started to pile up in 2023 and ’24 and his offensive numbers started to quickly decline, few anticipated him to ever return to the above-average kind he confirmed throughout his days on the north facet of Chicago.
Is 126 plate appearances of robust manufacturing sufficient to alter that narrative? The underlying numbers supply combined opinions. Baez’s 24.6% strikeout fee and 4.0% stroll fee this yr are just about an identical to his 23.9% strikeout fee and 4.3% stroll fee throughout his first three seasons in Detroit. That strikeout fee is definitely 5 factors decrease than his strikeout fee with the Cubs, however the principle purple flag in Baez’s efficiency with the Tigers wasn’t his free-swinging method. After being a constant energy menace throughout his days within the Nationwide League, the place his ISO is a formidable .212, Baez noticed his energy evaporate over his first three seasons in Detroit as his ISO plummeted to simply .126.
Going from 2024 Elly De La Cruz to 2024 Alex Verdugo within the energy division is a drastic downturn in efficiency, and whereas Baez’s .193 ISO this yr hasn’t gotten all the way in which again to his earlier heights, it’s an enormous step in the best path. That renewed energy may not be fully sustainable, nonetheless. Baez is posting his lowest hard-hit fee since 2017, his 6.8% barrel fee is definitely decrease than final yr, and he’s hitting extra grounders (51.6%) than ever earlier than. That means his present energy output (5 homers and eight doubles) might not be fully sustainable, and his large .398 BABIP certainly isn’t both for a participant who routinely posted BABIPs within the .340 to .350 vary at his peak.
Maybe meaning Baez’s return to kind this yr is nothing greater than a mirage, however there are some optimistic indicators in his underlying information. Baez is swinging outdoors the strike zone lower than ever earlier than in his profession, and his in-zone contact fee can also be the perfect of his profession. That improved plate self-discipline might not be exhibiting up in his stroll fee at this level, however higher pitch choice could possibly be permitting him to keep away from making the worst forms of contact; his 3.4% infield fly ball fee is tied with 2019 for the perfect determine of his profession, and his 12.5% soft-contact fee could be fortieth finest within the sport if he had sufficient plate appearances to qualify.
These delicate enhancements don’t help his star-level manufacturing to date, however his .291 xwOBA is an ideal match for the wOBA he posted for Detroit again in 2022. Maybe meaning offensive manufacturing on the low-end of what was anticipated of him at his peak, consistent with the 2016, ’17, and ’22 seasons, could possibly be sustainable for the veteran. Provided that Baez was a possible DFA candidate just some months in the past, the Tigers would certainly take that kind of strong, two-to-three win manufacturing from their $140MM man very fortunately.
How a lot do MLBTR readers purchase into Baez’s resurgence? Will he have the ability to proceed tapping into his energy sufficient to drift above-average offensive numbers regardless of shaky peripherals? Will he fall again to Earth and be a alternative stage participant going ahead, as he was the previous two years? Or will he discover a center floor as a mean to slightly-below common hitter who stays useful because of robust protection? Have your say within the ballot beneath:
