Ever because the membership dealt famous person slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals previous to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been counting on Christian Walker to choose up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a daily, Walker was considerably uneven as he posted roughly league common numbers with the bat total (103 wRC+) because of respectable however unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and stroll (9.6%) charges that mixed with solely common energy. Whereas Walker posted above common defensive marks throughout that point, that wasn’t sufficient to make him an affect participant at a bat-first place like first base, leaving him to generate simply 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking up for Goldschmidt.
Since then, nevertheless, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and brought off in a giant approach. A breakout 2022 season noticed Walker almost match that aforementioned three-year whole in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR marketing campaign the place he slashed a wonderful .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) whereas showing in 160 of the membership’s 162 video games and clobbering 36 house runs. That was good for the sixth-highest house run whole within the league that 12 months, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout price and 10.3% stroll price. Solely Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in placing out lower than 20% of the time, strolling greater than 10% of the time, and clubbing a minimum of 30 homers that 12 months. 2022 Additionally noticed Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Common and +17 Defensive Runs Saved simply earned him his first profession Gold Glove award as he ran circles across the competitors, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing because the next-best defensive resume that 12 months.
Some skepticism is all the time crucial when a participant on the fallacious aspect of 30 enjoys a breakout season, however Walker has subsequently confirmed his implausible age-31 marketing campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been extra of the identical in every of the final two years, as Walker has posted similar 119 wRC+ figures in each 2023 and ’24 whereas slugging a mixed 59 homers and producing 6.9 fWAR. Over the previous three years, solely Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated extra fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of many league’s premiere first basemen.
Every of these 4 sluggers forward of him have performed on nine-figure offers lately, however at the same time as Walker heads into free company for the primary time in his profession it could be a shock if he have been to affix them in touchdown a contract wherever near that value level. The largest purpose for that’s his age; Walker will flip 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a 12 months older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. Whereas it’s actually not extraordinary for hitters to stay efficient into their mid-to-late thirties, it could be an extremely dangerous guess for a membership to supply Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the everyday growing older curve of MLB gamers.
Walker’s age isn’t the one issue at play right here, both. Whereas his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a profitable one, an indirect pressure value the veteran simply over a month late within the 12 months. Walker’s availability has been a serious asset lately; the veteran appeared in additional than 90% of the Dbacks’ video games from 2019 to 2023, together with simply seven video games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons mixed. Provided that, it’s absolutely regarding to potential suitors that Walker now has a major indirect harm in his latest historical past—significantly given the truth that he additionally suffered from indirect issues in 2021 that resulted in a number of journeys to the IL.
Because the veteran enters free company not solely on the cusp of his mid-thirties however on the heels of a recent reminder of his harm historical past, it’s honest to surprise what kind of contract will likely be obtainable to him on the open market. Different veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get offers within the two-to-three 12 months vary for $15-20MM yearly, and it’s not arduous to think about Walker getting the same deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in the same vary, that will seemingly place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Provide, which this offseason will likely be a one-year deal price $21.05MM.
That’s seemingly a slight overpay by way of AAV for Walker’s companies, nevertheless it might nonetheless be a lovely gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s significance to the membership’s lineup lately and the short-term nature of the dedication. RosterResource at Fangraphs tasks Arizona for just below $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, although that determine shoots as much as round $138MM after factoring in choices for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.
That will nonetheless go away the membership with round $35MM of price range area in the event that they have been to match their 2024 spending totals, though a $21.05MM dedication to Walker would eat up the vast majority of that area, leaving them with out a lot room to switch different outgoing free brokers comparable to Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. After all, that assumes that Walker would settle for the supply if it’s prolonged to him. If he have been to say no it and signal elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would obtain a compensatory choose following both the primary or second spherical of the 2025 draft in trade for shedding Walker, permitting them to make sure they received’t lose a key cog of their lineup for nothing.
Ought to the Diamondbacks prolong Walker the Qualifying Provide this winter and threat paying him extra in 2025 than he would earn in any other case, or ought to they permit him to enter free company unencumbered and threat shedding him for nothing? Have your say within the ballot beneath.
