When the Cardinals introduced over the offseason that they have been transferring Willson Contreras to first base, it got here as one thing of a shock provided that they we simply two years right into a five-year deal they gave him to fill the sneakers Yadier Molina had stood in for the previous 19 years. Signing a bat-first catcher to interchange among the best defenders in baseball historical past behind the dish was a daring transfer, and whereas Contreras hit a superb .263/.367/.468 (129 wRC+) in his first two seasons as a Cardinal, his tenure behind the plate didn’t come with out controversy. St. Louis moved him off catcher briefly throughout his first season with the membership after complaints about his glove. Final 12 months, he missed time with a damaged arm sustained when he was hit by a swing after the group prompt he transfer nearer to the plate to enhance his protection.
If these controversies set the desk for the choice to maneuver Contreras away from catching, the departure of incumbent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the Bronx this winter and the membership’s two up-and-coming catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages making stable instances for extra taking part in time made the likelihood that rather more real looking. In any case, a place change for Contreras would enable the Cardinals to make some progress on their desired youth motion without having to tug off a commerce, and there was no less than a chance that Contreras’s robust bat from his first two seasons with the membership might blossom even additional if he didn’t want to separate his focus between hitting and catching.
Sadly, that’s not how issues have gone thus far. In 24 video games this season, Contreras has slashed simply .200/.269/.305 this 12 months. That leaves him with a 62 wRC+ that’s not solely effectively under common but additionally extraordinarily uncharacteristic of him. Whereas questions on Contreras’s defensive skills have dogged him for the reason that early days of his MLB profession with the Cubs, his bat has by no means been doubtful as he’s posted above-average numbers on the plate by wRC+ in each single 12 months of his profession till now. A .258/.353/.461 (121 wRC+) hitter for his profession, Contreras had elevated his recreation to a different degree for the reason that begin of the 2022 season with a .256/.367/.467 (133 wRC+) line throughout the previous three seasons.
Has all of that modified in his age-33 season? It definitely wouldn’t be the primary time {that a} catcher in his early-to-mid 30s suffered a sudden and drastic decline, though transferring to first base ought to no less than theoretically assist protect Contreras’s well being. The irritating actuality of the veteran’s scenario is that, whereas below-average offense may be acceptable behind the plate, first base is a bat-first place the place he’ll want offensive outcomes with a view to stick as an everyday. That’s much more true with children like Alec Burleson and Luken Baker able to step in and take their very own photographs on the first base job if given the chance.
As lackluster as Contreras’s work on the dish has been thus far this 12 months, it’s not as if all hope is misplaced. The veteran’s .270 BABIP this 12 months matches his profession low, and if it bounces again to one thing nearer to his .309 profession degree, that might go a protracted option to lifting his manufacturing. One more reason for optimism is that he’s nonetheless placing the barrel on the ball pretty usually. Whereas his 9.1% barrel fee and 40.9% hard-hit fee this 12 months are the bottom figures he’s posted in both class since 2018, they each stay stable. When mixed along with his top-of-the-line bat pace, it’s straightforward to think about Contreras having the ability to generate extra energy than he’s proven thus far.
Then again, Contreras is already greater than 100 plate appearances into his first season as a primary baseman, and he’s at the moment matching his career-high in strikeout fee (28.6%) and pairing that with a career-low stroll fee of 6.7%. Contreras has at all times been a little bit of a streaky hitter, as exemplified by his 2018 season the place he carried a 123 wRC+ into the All-Star break earlier than hitting a paltry .193/.282/.280 throughout his last 50 video games, so it stands to cause that he might be only one sizzling streak away from getting again to being the bat he’s proven himself to be all through his profession. Even with that in thoughts, the indicators of declining plate self-discipline and diminished energy are regarding. That’s very true when mixed along with his age and the years of damage and tear he gathered behind the plate.
How do MLBTR readers assume the remainder of the 2025 season will go for Contreras? Will he have the ability to bounce again and publish numbers just like what he’s supplied in every of the final three seasons? Or will his first 12 months as a primary baseman be the worst offensive season of his profession? Have your say within the ballot under:
