I don’t assume I’m breaking new floor by suggesting that platoon bats are helpful for Ottoneu. The mix of day by day lineups (and most Ottoneu leagues are day by day, although not all) and deep rosters makes it potential to roster gamers you understand you may’t begin day by day, however who can nonetheless present worth.
It’s fairly simple to take a look at a participant’s platoon splits however platoon splits don’t inform the entire story. Since you aren’t beginning a participant for his PA vs. RHP or LHP. You’re placing a man into your lineup or in your bench primarily based on who the opposing beginning pitcher is, and rather a lot can occur after that.
Some guys crush one facet and are so dangerous towards the opposite facet that they provide the manufacturing again. Some guys get pulled for a PH as quickly as they face a same-sided pitcher, so that they get far fewer PA, driving down their alternative to pile up factors per recreation. Some guys can maintain their very own simply sufficient towards same-handed pitching that they get to remain within the recreation, or play adequate protection that they keep within the recreation, or aren’t the largest threats on their staff so different groups don’t optimize their pen to face them.
All of those variations transcend a easy L/R break up and add as much as probably significant modifications in a participant’s P/G efficiency.
Utilizing Baseball Reference’s Stathead, I pulled stats and calculated P/G for gamers primarily based not on their L/R splits, however primarily based on the handedness of the opposing beginning pitcher. For instance, if a righty begins a recreation, a hitter who scores 5 factors in that recreation would get credit score for five factors in a recreation began by a RHP, even when they solely confronted that RHP one time and confronted lefties the remainder of the time.
I solely pulled gamers with 200+ PA in video games began by RHP (297 hitters) and 100+ PA in video games began by LHP (237 hitters). That gave me 336 complete gamers, with 195 on each lists, 102 on the RHP record and 39 on the LHP record. And from that, I filtered all the way down to 4 teams: Hitters who solely received common enjoying time towards RHSP, hitters who received common enjoying time vs. LHSP, hitters who must be benched vs. RHSP, and hitters who must be benched vs. LHSP.
1) Solely Play in Video games Began by an Opposing RHP
These are the gamers who had been both already platooned by their groups or, for another motive, merely didn’t get to 100 PA in video games began by LHSP. Of the 102 gamers who had greater than 200 PA in video games began by RHP however lower than 100 in video games began by LHP, 23 put up greater than 4.5 P/G in these video games towards RHSP.
Splits for Hitters Who Begin In opposition to RHP
A few of these guys weren’t on the LHSP record merely because of harm and missed time, whereas others had been really platooned by their groups. These guys, on the whole, make for good platoon bats. Pasquantino must take a step ahead – you may’t begin a platoon 1B with 4.56 P/G towards RHSP – and a few of the OF are borderline.
Nootbaar and Wade stand out as guys who, even with the platoon benefit vs. the SP didn’t do sufficient final yr to be sure-fire starters. An OF who places up 4.6-4.7 P/G could be one in all your greatest 5 on any given day (they in all probability can be) however it isn’t a assure. That implies that for those who had Nootbaar or Wade in your roster final yr, it wasn’t so simple as saying “begin them towards all righty starters.” Butler and Raley, however, might be just about locked in as 4th or fifth OF choices on days they confronted RHSP and you’d be in a great place.
The fellows on the high of the record are price watching as a result of their P/G when a RHP begins are so good they could be swamping actually poor performances when a lefty begins. We’ll discuss extra about that on record #3 beneath.
2) Solely Play in Video games Began by an Opposing LHP
These are the gamers who had been both already platooned by their groups or, for another motive, merely didn’t get to 200 PA in video games began by RHSP. That is much less frequent than the opposite facet – it’s merely more durable to make a profession (or perhaps a season) as a hitter who hits lefties however by no means performs towards righties. Of the 39 gamers who had greater than 100 PA in video games began by LHP however lower than 200 in video games began by RHP, 13 put up greater than 4.5 P/G in these video games towards LHSP.
Splits for Hitters Who Begin In opposition to LHP
The underside of this record is manner much less attention-grabbing. Even a man like Robles is tougher to roster than somebody like Winker or Abreu from the earlier record. Final yr, pitchers made 4,858 begins (162 video games per staff time 30 groups minus two groups that solely performed 161) and 27.2% had been began by lefties. So you probably have a man like Robles, there are solely about 44 video games a yr that he’s even an affordable candidate so that you can begin. However at 4.78 P/G, there can be a few of these 44 video games when you might have 5 different OF you’d fairly begin. Or a few of them he’ll face a tricky lefty and you’ll choose to bench him anyway. All of a sudden you’re rostering a man who you may solely use 20 or 30 instances.
The fellows on the high of the record you may no less than reliably depend on utilizing once they get these begins, however even then, 40ish video games solely has a lot worth.
3) Began Video games In opposition to Each RHP and LHP, however Carried out Higher vs. RHSP
These guys weren’t platooned by their groups, however perhaps ought to have been. Or perhaps it is best to platoon them. As a result of they hit once they began towards RHP, however not once they began towards LHP. Of the 195 gamers who had each 200+ PA in video games began by righties and 100+ in video games began by lefties, a few of the greatest gaps between efficiency in these video games got here from guys like Shohei Ohtani (10.23 P/G in video games began by righties, 7.48 P/G in video games began by lefties) and Brent Rooker (6.38 P/G in video games began by righties, 8.88 P/G in video games began by lefties). There’s nothing informative there (Ohtani continues to be good towards lefites; Rooker ought to nonetheless begin vs. righties) so I filtered this record and the following to gamers who had been over 4.5 P/G towards their higher facet, below 4.5 P/G towards their worse facet, and had a niche of no less than 1 P/G between them. Listed here are the 23 hitters who meet that standards and favor dealing with RHSP:
Splits for Hitters Who Higher In opposition to RH Starters
A few of these names should not stunning and aren’t that attention-grabbing. In the event you rostered Bleday, you knew to not begin him towards LHP. Similar with Castro, Burleson, and others.
However a few of these are attention-grabbing. As nice as Jarren Duran was final yr and as a lot as his protection stored him within the lineup, he was actively hurting you in video games began by LHP. You must have benched him final yr towards lefties. Austin Riley, James Wooden, Jackson Chourio, and Cal Raleigh are others who many managers may need handled as set-and-forget on a regular basis starters; all would have been extra helpful to you for those who had benched them towards lefty starters.
I need to notice, although, that your threshold for beginning a participant could be completely different at OF vs. MI or 3B, and never simply because alternative degree is completely different. Evaluate Duran and Burger. Most Ottoneu groups carry 7-10 OF, which means that on a day Duran faces a lefty starter, you very probably have a greater choice than his 4.15 P/G. And in case you are rostering Duran, you may plan to solely begin him vs. RHP, understanding you may generally slot him in vs. a lefty starter.
However most groups don’t carry a ton of 3B depth. You might have Burger and a 2B/3B man you utilize to play some MI, or a 3B/OF man you fit into the OF typically. Carrying an additional 3B particularly to bench Burger vs. LH starters may impression the way you need to construct your roster. Taking his 4.22 over 40ish video games could be a greater choice than rostering Jose Miranda within the hopes that when Burger faces a lefty, Miranda will face a righty so you may squeeze out one other 0.29 P/G.
4) Began Video games In opposition to Each RHP and LHP, however Carried out Higher vs. LHSP
Similar filters right here, however the different route, and you find yourself with 29 names this time.
Splits for Hitters Who Higher In opposition to LH Starters
The message right here is generally the identical, with completely different names. Heliot Ramos, Starling Marte, Randy Arozarena, Ozzie Albies, and others merely mustn’t have been in your lineup towards RHSP final yr. Jorge Soler, Steven Kwan, Brenton Doyle, amongst others, may require extra thought than simply plug-and-play.
Concluding Ideas
I’m rethinking how I worth numerous these gamers. In some circumstances, particularly a few of the guys who crush righties, I would improve my valuation on them as a result of I believe I can optimize their utilization extra with this information. Others I would lower as a result of I believe I can use them much less.
Having mentioned that, there’s a large caveat right here which is that I don’t know how sticky that is year-to-year. A few of what drives that is platoon splits and people could be sticky. However some could be staff utilization, how opposing groups handled them, the noise inherent in partial-season pattern sizes, and so on. Is Duran actually that a lot worse when a LHSP is on the mound, or did he occur to face numerous notably robust LHSP this yr? So whereas I’m rethinking some guys, I’m doing so cautiously and with a grain of salt.
However that is one thing I’ll be watching going ahead.