Lucas began off this week with a have a look at powerful maintain or reduce choices at 2B and SS. Now it’s my flip with 4 guys on the maintain/reduce bubble.
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Bo Bichette, SSSalary: $28, $34Average Wage: $292024 P/G: 3.04Projected 2025 P/G: 5.31
I’m certain I’m not the one Ottoneu participant questioning what the heck to do with Bo Bichette this offseason. His 2024 season was marred by a number of calf accidents after which reduce quick in the midst of September by a fractured finger. Even when he was on the sector, he was horrendous, posting profession worsts in WAR, wRC+, batting common, OBP, slugging proportion, wOBA, and xwOBA. It could be straightforward to chalk up his struggles to these accidents and count on a rebound season for him in 2025, however there have been already some yellow flags in his profile earlier than this yr.
Bichette’s energy output has been steadily declining year-over-year since peaking at a .260 ISO throughout his rookie yr. His 2021 breakout now looks like a distant reminiscence after settling in with a .348 wOBA throughout the 2 years afterwards. Regardless of all his damage points this yr, his arduous hit price stayed comparatively steady even when his barrel price collapsed. That tells me that he had no hassle making strong contact however his batted ball profile was all out of whack. Certainly, after we have a look at his price of pulled elevated contact, 2024 represented a profession low for him — simply 19% of his elevated contact went to his pull facet. His 29 residence runs in 2021 however, Bichette isn’t a standard slugger however pulling the ball with authority is a surefire solution to generate extra-base hits. With out that energy, Bichette has produced much more empty batting common than you’d wish to see, and that sort of hitter simply isn’t as invaluable in Ottoneu than in conventional 5×5 leagues.
Steamer isn’t precisely purchased in on a full bounce again both. It’s calling for a .330 wOBA which might have been a profession low for him had 2024 not occurred. My rankings aren’t certain what to do with him both as they presently present him within the mid-teens at shortstop in a tier with CJ Abrams and Xavier Edwards. That feels too low based mostly on what he’s completed prior to now however there are simply so many query marks about what his product will seem like in 2025.
Preserve or reduce?
I believe $34 is just too excessive a worth with a lot uncertainty surrounding him which makes him a straightforward reduce in that league. $28 feels prefer it’s proper on the cusp of the reduce line too, however I believe I’m up for playing at that worth. I might in all probability get him again within the draft someplace round that worth, however I’d slightly maintain on to him only for the roster readability.
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Brandon Lowe, 1B/2BSalary: $13Average Wage: $102024 P/G: 4.97Projected 2025 P/G: 5.12
Oh look, one other man who feels tough to guage attributable to accidents. Brandon Lowe’s damage historical past is way more intensive than Bichette’s, however to Lowe’s credit score, he’s carried out decently properly when on the sector. This yr, he truly posted his finest wRC+ since his monster season in 2021, and he solely had one journey to the IL for an indirect pressure in direction of the start of the season. As soon as he returned from that damage, he posted a scorching sizzling 152 wRC+ over the following three months, from Might 20 via August 18. Afterwards, he fell right into a little bit of a hunch and completed the season with an total wRC+ of 123.
His batted ball peripherals all regarded good; his arduous hit and barrel charges all fell inside his established norms and his energy manufacturing was the very best it’s been since 2021. There have been some yellow flags in his plate self-discipline, nonetheless. His stroll price had sat at 11% during the last 4 years however fell to simply 7.8% this yr. His strikeout price fell by a few level, which is nice information, however the lacking free passes are much more regarding. All of it stems from an method that was much more aggressive; his total swing price was a profession excessive and was largely fueled by a 5 level soar in his zone swing price. Swinging at extra strikes is best than swinging at pitches exterior the zone, however until it comes with a corresponding soar involved price, it’s going to negatively have an effect on his stroll price. That’s precisely what occurred. He swung extra typically, didn’t make any extra contact, and wound up strolling and putting out much less.
After all, the actual query for Lowe is how a lot he’ll find yourself enjoying in 2025. Between the accidents and the Rays cautious dealing with of him towards left-handed pitching, he’s amassed greater than 450 plate appearances in precisely one season throughout his profession. On a per-plate-appearance foundation, he’s probably the most productive second basemen on the market, however rostering him means you’ll have to have a backup plan able to go for 300 or so plate appearances.
Preserve or reduce?
His accidents and lack of enjoying time have depressed Lowe’s worth these previous few seasons, however he can actually hit when he’s wholesome. Nonetheless, $13 feels prefer it’s a bit too excessive to guess on a full season from Lowe. His common wage of $10 looks like a a lot better ceiling.
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Tyler Fitzgerald, SS/OFSalary: $4, $7Average Wage: $82024 P/G: 5.06Projected 2025 P/G: 4.46
A fully ridiculous month of July fueled Tyler Fitzgerald’s shock breakout this yr. Critically, he hit .321/.390/.849 throughout 15 video games that month and rapidly took over the beginning shortstop gig for a Giants crew that was going nowhere. He continued to hit properly via the tip of the season and is slated to start subsequent season because the Giants beginning second baseman after they signed Willy Adames.
He was ranked twenty sixth on the Giants preseason prospect listing as a 35+ FV prospect so his ascent and subsequent breakout have been real surprises. Taking a look at all of his batted ball peripherals explains why nobody actually believes he’ll be capable of replicate his success in 2025. He had under common exit velocity, arduous hit price, whiff price, and xwOBA and his barrel price was solely barely above common. His candy spot price was very excessive and his dash velocity was among the many highest in baseball which might clarify how he sustained such a excessive BABIP.
Fitzgerald’s whole method is predicated on pulling the ball with authority; it’s the identical sort of method that Isaac Paredes makes use of with such nice success. Certainly, have a look at how correlated Fizgerald’s pull price is together with his wOBA.
When he was crushing pitches to left area in July and August, he was a authentic risk in San Francisco’s lineup. The problem is that this sort of method is definitely exploitable until the batter has a very good eye and might await the best pitch, like Paredes does. Sadly for Fitzgerald, he merely has an excessive amount of swing-and-miss in his profile and isn’t affected person sufficient to make his pull-happy methods work within the large leagues. My guess is that he’ll be a reasonably streaky hitter in 2025, with some peaks like we noticed this yr, however an total under common hitter.
Preserve or reduce?
Regardless of all of the purple flags laid out above, I’m not essentially out on Fitzgerald at $4. He’ll add 2B again to his positional eligibility pretty rapidly and a MI together with his sort of potential for a sizzling streak is helpful at that worth. $7 feels such as you’re paying for his July and August with the expectation that that sizzling streak is nearer to his true expertise and that’s simply not going to be the fact.
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Michael Massey, 2BSalary: $3, $5Average Wage: $42024 P/G: 3.98Projected 2025 P/G: 4.51
I’m going to make this fast. Let’s play Chad’s favourite sport: what number of factors did Michael Massey earn in video games that he began? 4.64 factors per sport began! That’s a helpful bench MI, and since he’s on the robust facet of a platoon, it’s fairly straightforward to know when to lock him into your lineup or go away him on the bench. What’s humorous is that although the Royals protected him towards left-handed pitching, Massey’s platoon break up was simply 4 factors of wOBA.
Preserve or reduce?
I’m maintaining at $3. At $5 issues get somewhat dicey however it sounds just like the Royals could be open to utilizing Massey within the outfield now that they’ve acquired Jonathan India. Including that positional flexibility may make him value the additional couple of {dollars}.
