As all the time, I’m simply following the footsteps of Lucas and Jake, who already coated their robust MI keeper choices this week. They coated a couple of guys I additionally should make calls on, however we’ll flip our consideration to some new names for at the moment.
Will Wagner, 1B/2BSalary: $6Average Wage: $42024 P/G: 4.43Proj 2025 P/G: 4.90
Roster Useful resource needs me to imagine that Wagner is ready to be the Jays DH and cleanup hitter to open the season, and that alone is sufficient to make this value intriguing. However it’s early within the low season and there may be loads of time for Toronto to make extra strikes and push Wagner to the bench. Then once more, he could not belong on the bench. It’s straightforward to scoff at his .359 BABIP and anticipate regression, however a .357 xwOBA pushed by a 50% hard-hit charge is tough to disregard.
Wagner additionally seems like a man who ought to present improved stroll charges transferring ahead. He wanted that top BABIP partly as a result of he solely walked 4.7% of the time as soon as he was up within the huge leagues, however his minor league monitor document paints a really totally different image, which fits a protracted method to explaining why his Steamer-projected walk-rate (10%) is greater than double his MLB efficiency to-date.
The problem with Wagner is that his profile doesn’t recommend a ton of energy, the nice hard-hit charge apart. He hit eight homers in 441 plate appearances in Triple-A and MLB final yr, and that set a brand new career-high for homers in a professional season. If he, in truth, enters April with a job, and piles up a full-season of PA, he seems like a excessive OBP, restricted energy bat, with 10-15 HR. Assume Jonathan India with out the stolen bases. That isn’t a nasty participant.
Preserve or reduce?
I’ll preserve if I believe he’s beginning and taking part in almost each day. The profile lacks the upside for me to need to wait on him, but when I can plug him in instantly (and get an early learn on how properly he’ll produce for me), I’m in.
Curtis Mead, 1B/2BSalary: $4Average Wage: $52024 P/G: 4.11Proj 2025 P/G: 4.63
Like Wagner, my start line is “the place does Mead slot in?” He qualifies at 2B, performs 3B, may very well be a 1B, however the choices in Tampa could not depart a lot room for him. Yandy Diaz, Junior Caminero, and Brandon Lowe maintain the three spots Mead suits finest, with Jonathan Aranda presently slated for DH. And that assumes that Carson Williams doesn’t take over at SS, pushing Jose Caballero into the identical mess as Mead. Others might struggle into that blend, as properly, each inside choices and anybody the Rays choose up as a FA or by way of commerce. With Christopher Morel slated for the OF, even one other OF bat might create points for Mead. And he seems to be on the surface trying in already.
Which brings us to Mead himself and, extra importantly, his bat. In 787 Triple-A PA, Mead has appeared each bit the fantasy darling. He doesn’t strike out a ton, he has 26 homer runs, he’s even flashed some pace. However that hasn’t translated as he has simply 2 HR in 224 MLB PA, with a .274 wOBA. And that’s propped up by his first look in 2023 – his 2024 season was even worse.
Mead has proven that he can hit the ball onerous, as evidenced by his 112 max EV, however he doesn’t do it usually sufficient, working 30.8% Arduous-hit charge and three.8% barrel-rate in his younger profession.
Is Mead toast? No. He’s nonetheless younger. Am I enthusiastic about what I see? Properly…
Preserve or reduce?
I believe the reply is reduce, but when I’m rebuilding, I might see holding him to see what he does. The issue is what he’s most definitely to do, barring extra low season modifications, is begin the yr in Triple-A with no clear path to taking part in time.
Juan Brito, 1B/2BSalary: $2Average Wage: $22024 P/G: 5.91 (In Triple-A)Proj 2025 P/G: 1.86
Okay, in order that projected P/G is a fairly large crimson flag, huh? Steamer sees Brito getting a cup of espresso, and nothing extra, and so it’s price taking that projection (over 24 video games) with a grain of salt. Particularly as a result of Brito’s minor league outcomes look so good. That doesn’t imply Brito might be a star (simply lookup at Mead for an instance of a participant whose main league efficiency doesn’t match their minor league numbers) nevertheless it does imply Brito is prone to do considered one of two issues:
Get a glance, wrestle, get despatched down
Get a glance, present he can grasp, and get far more than 24 video games acting at a a lot greater stage than sub-2 P/G
Brito will get a shot this yr, however the query is when, and I don’t suppose it would come instantly. So is he a ok prospect to justify ready on?
Preserve or Minimize?
I believe I’ll reduce. I actually like Brito’s profile, however he sliding down the defensive spectrum and whereas he did present extra energy final yr (21 HR was an enormous step ahead), he’s nonetheless a lot much less enticing if he doesn’t maintain 2B eligibility.
Nico Hoerner, 2BSalary: $10Average Wage: $102024 P/G: 4.58Proj 2025 P/G: 4.82
Hoerner took a fairly large step backwards from 2023, nevertheless it’s not tremendous straightforward to determine the particular factor that dropped him again. He hit two fewer HR (although given the drop in PA, it was extra like 1.5 fewer HR). He stole 12 fewer bases (and was caught stealing one much less time). These two issues mix to clarify lower than half of his misplaced factors. He additionally walked much less, had a decrease BABIP, hit fewer triples, and was hit by fewer pitches. None of these issues are particular person disasters It’s only a slew of small drop offs that add as much as a fairly important decline, total.
So which is the true Hoerner? Not surprisingly, his Steamer projection splits the distinction, and that’s in all probability the most secure wager. However there may be one caveat to that, not less than for me.
Hoerner’s wOBA, which ought to carefully mirror his factors per recreation in Ottoneu leagues, has moved mainly in lockstep together with his BABIP. And his BABIP plummeted and stayed very low for an enormous chunk of the primary half of 2024. It may very well be that he’s going to persistently undergo stretches of 2-3 months with a BABIP round .275 and infrequently dipping a lot decrease, however I doubt it. And based mostly on that, I believe there may be some good cause to suppose he can put up a full season that appears like his 2023 and the second half of his 2024, and that might push him again up over 5 P/G. Nevertheless it’s not a given and there’s a cause the primary projection now we have seen this low season expects him to dip beneath that.
Preserve or Minimize?
I’m in all probability going to chop, however I’m very curious what different projections say about him. The most important cause to chop is that $10 is paying for him to get again to that 5 P/G threshold and that feels extra like a ceiling than an expectation. I don’t suppose there may be sufficient energy in that bat for him to make a leap to a different tier, and I don’t need to pay for ceiling.
