So much can change in a yr for a baseball workforce. Round this time in 2024, FanGraphs gave the Tigers a 28.9% likelihood of constructing the playoffs and had the Cardinals because the favorites to win the Nationwide League Central.
Detroit had a middling first half and offered on the deadline, buying and selling Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers for prospects. They surged to the playoffs with out Flaherty, then re-signed him this winter and now enter 2025 as clear contenders. The Cardinals saved their hopes alive by way of most of 2024, buying Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Shawn Armstrong on the deadline. However when that fell brief, they determined to hit the reset button and don’t appear to be planning to compete anytime quickly. Even their offseason reboot plans have been scuttled, with numerous gamers utilizing their no-trade clauses to dam offers the entrance workplace certainly hoped to make.
Going into 2025, the Blue Jays are maybe the membership with the widest spectrum of attainable outcomes. On the one hand, loads of the roster is identical membership that performed at a reasonably constant 90-win tempo over the 2020-23 interval. That they had an injury-marred season in 2024 however bolstered the roster within the winter in an try and return to competition in 2025. With the expanded playoffs, getting again into the combination this yr is totally attainable.
The American League East appears huge open. The FanGraphs Projected Standings have all 5 golf equipment with a 35-71% likelihood of getting a postseason spot, with the Jays at 38.3%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are considerably comparable, with the Jays at 48.5% and no membership larger than 72.3%. For the whole American League, each projection programs have 12 golf equipment within the 19-71% vary, with solely the Angels, Athletics and White Sox decrease than that.
The opposite aspect of the coin is well-known at this level. The membership is dropping its grip on a number of of its key gamers. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is probably the most notable, as he’s an impending free agent that the membership hasn’t been capable of signal to a long-term deal. The identical is true of Bo Bichette, the membership’s different longtime core piece. Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Chad Inexperienced and Erik Swanson are additionally slated for the open market this fall. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk are on tempo to be free brokers after 2026. José Berríos can be part of that latter group by opting out of the ultimate two years of his deal. All may very well be commerce candidates this summer time if issues aren’t going properly.
That scenario extends past the roster. President Mark Shapiro is reportedly going into the ultimate yr of his contract. Basic supervisor Ross Atkins is reportedly solely signed by way of 2026. Supervisor John Schneider is signed by way of 2025 with a membership possibility for 2026. Across the baseball world, there may be an expectation {that a} poor season will result in important adjustments. If the Jays are dangerous once more in 2025, nobody would actually be shocked if Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider are all gone.
Even when the workforce does handle to place collectively a superb season in 2025, there can be inquiries to be answered in regards to the future. As talked about, a number of gamers are set to qualify free of charge company on this coming winter or the one after that.
Whether or not they can substitute a few of these gamers internally is hard to say. Business evaluations of the system as an entire are usually not sturdy. Baseball America ranks the farm system twenty third within the league. Keith Regulation of The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN not too long ago put them twenty fourth.
That’s not essentially surprising, because the membership has been placing a precedence on the large league roster currently. Bassitt and Springer had rejected qualifying presents, so the Jays had to surrender a draft decide for every of these offers. The identical is true of the upcoming draft, as Anthony Santander additionally rejected a QO.
Of the membership’s 5 first-round picks from 2018 to 2022, they ultimately traded three. They despatched Jordan Groshans to the Marlins within the Anthony Bass/Zach Pop deal, Austin Martin to the Twins within the Berríos commerce and Gunnar Hoglund to the Athletics within the Matt Chapman commerce. The opposite two, Alek Manoah and Brandon Barriera, are each recovering from Tommy John surgical procedure proper now. Different notable prospects like Ricky Tiedemann and Landen Maroudis are additionally working again from TJS.
That has left the membership with a transparent lack in top-end expertise. Baseball America has only one Jay on their prime 100, with Tiedemann having actually the final spot. The lists from FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and Regulation all have two or three Jays on them however nobody within the prime 60.
An individual searching for optimism might concentrate on the amount of men who’re both borderline prime 100 guys or simply exterior of that designation. Along with their current prime 100 record, Baseball America additionally launched a listing of each participant who acquired no less than one vote from considered one of their writers. They construct their prime 100 by having a number of contributors submit a prime 150 rating, then use a factors system to mix these completely different lists.
As talked about, the Jays in the end solely obtained one man on there with Tiedemann taking the ultimate spot, however he was considered one of seven completely different gamers to obtain a vote. That implies that no less than one BA staffer thought-about Jake Bloss, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, Orelvis Martínez or Trey Yesavage to be a borderline prime 100 man. A few of these guys appeared on the opposite linked prime 100 lists. Just one membership had greater than 11 gamers on that vote-getter record from BA, whereas some golf equipment had as few as three.
The amount of the Jays’ system additionally appeared to point out up at ZiPS, the projection system from Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. ZiPS had 5 guys on the highest 100, six guys within the prime 200 and 20 within the prime 500. In that latter class, solely three golf equipment have been forward of the Jays. The Rays had 24, with the Reds and White Sox at 21.
This quantity-over-quality evaluation most likely aligns with the observations of anybody earnestly following the membership. They’ve a military of men who are usually not actually thought-about prime prospects however appear maybe able to being main leaguers within the close to future. This consists of guys like Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Charles McAdoo, RJ Schreck and Lazaro Estrada. Additionally they have some guys who’re not prospects and aren’t absolutely established however nonetheless have some future potential, resembling Bowden Francis, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, Leo Jiménez and Addison Barger.
Maybe just a few good developments in there might make the long run look somewhat higher. However even when that involves move, there’ll nonetheless be the unanswered query of the membership’s star energy. The membership’s makes an attempt to signal gamers like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and others have come up simply brief. As talked about, their overtures to Guerrero haven’t labored.
The one advantage of all these misses, and the massive slate of impending free brokers, is that the long run payroll is pretty clear. By 2028, solely Santander, Berríos, Andrés Giménez and Yariel Rodríguez can be assured offers. Berríos has an opt-out after 2026. Santander and Rodríguez can opt-out after 2027, although the membership can void these opt-outs by triggering membership choices. The Giménez deal is assured by way of 2029 with a membership possibility for 2030.
Although Guerrero hasn’t signed a long-term deal but, he did go away the door open to contemplate a future supply if the membership circled again to him. It’s additionally attainable that he might attain free company and re-sign, the identical approach that star gamers like Aaron Decide and Pete Alonso re-signed with the Yankees and Mets respectively. The Jays might additionally pivot to another notable free agent subsequent winter, resembling Kyle Tucker, Munetaka Murakami, Dylan Stop or Zac Gallen.
Whereas beginning this piece, I thought-about utilizing cliches like “shifting sands”, “fog of battle”, “up within the air”, “multiverse” or “over the horizon” within the title. The purpose I hoped to make is that there’s virtually nothing that may be recognized in regards to the Jays proper now. It’s totally believable that they’re good this yr, but in addition simply as attainable that they’re dangerous. Making the playoffs is completely inside purpose, however everybody may very well be traded and everybody may very well be fired. They might see just a few of their many younger guys step up and cement themselves as future items, offsetting the upcoming free agent departures. The system might look barren as they kick off a yearslong rebuild. They might signal a franchise-altering mega contract or they may not.
Many followers have already made up their minds in regards to the Blue Jays nevertheless it looks as if every part can be on the road this yr with a lot to be decided. Whatever the outcomes, it needs to be fascinating.
