There isn’t a lot of a shock right here.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have gained the Nationwide League West’s divisional crown yearly however one since 2013. They seized 2024’s world championship with shocking ease. And so they have continued to spend cash with wild abandon previous to the upcoming season.
So it’s not precisely a shock that my history-based prediction system anticipates one other NL West title for the Dodgers in 2025.
My system compares every membership’s file through the earlier three seasons (2022-2024) towards the corresponding three-year marks for 1,318 groups that performed within the period of free company (which started in 1976). My findings forecast the upcoming standings.
My assumption is that parallels from the previous — particularly, the 50 closest matches (CMs) for every present-day membership — can supply hints in regards to the future.
Forty-four of the Dodgers’ 50 CMs topped .500 the next 12 months. Thirty-six of these related squads went on to qualify for the playoffs, 14 gained league titles, and eight emerged as World Sequence champions.
I awarded factors for every rung of this ladder — one for exceeding .500, a further two for the following step, then an additional three and 4 for the ultimate two rungs.
The Dodgers earned 190 factors via the CM course of, stamping them as runaway favorites to win the NL West. Right here’s the expected order of end:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. San Diego Padres
4. San Francisco Giants
5. Colorado Rockies
Look beneath for breakdowns for all 5 groups. Every abstract begins with the membership’s 2025 prediction factors, then its 2024 file, after which the next-season outcomes for its 50 CMs. The ultimate line discloses the very closest match of all. (The subsequent-year file for the closest CM could also be at odds with my general prediction, which is okay. The cumulative rating for all 50 CMs is what actually counts.)
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2025 prediction factors: 190
2024 file: 98-64
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 8 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 14 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 36 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 44 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2020 Astros (29-31)
2025 prediction factors: 111
2024 file: 89-73
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 6 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 23 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 39 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 1989 Brewers (81-81)
2025 prediction factors: 110
2024 file: 93-69
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 8 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 20 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 34 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2011 Twins (63-99)
2025 prediction factors: 39
2024 file: 80-82
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 6 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 17 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2021 Phillies (82-80)
2025 prediction factors: 15
2024 file: 61-101
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 8 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2013 Astros (51-111)
