NL ROY Race Stays Sizzlin’ – September 17, 2024
Jackson Merrill
The rookie phenom went 2-3 R, HR, RBI, BB as he continues to compete with Paul Skenes for NL Rookie of the Yr. Merrill has been a fantasy goldmine, hitting 24 homers and stealing 16 bases. He slowly obtained higher all year long, and is now an elite fantasy possibility. He’s slashing .306/.335/.608 within the second half. His .299 xBA is 96th Percentile and his .533 xSL is ninety fifth Percentile. He hits the ball exhausting (44.3%) and would not whiff typically (20.6%). Whereas this isn’t a direct comparability, Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson had eerily related growth paths. Each Witt and Henderson had big prospect pedigree and robust first seasons at a younger age. I do not need to miss out on that end result, and will probably be drafting him a lot in 2025.
Paul Skenes
Skenes has been completely wonderful, after which some. He tossed 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 Ok in opposition to St. Louis. Skenes is the right pitcher. He’s concurrently a groundball machine (50.5%) whereas additionally putting batters out at reliever charges (32.3%). That is as excellent as they arrive from an analytical standpoint. The one purpose that you’d move on Skenes within the first spherical in 2025 drafts is if you happen to merely most popular to take a hitter over a pitcher, however I consider he must be the primary pitcher off the board, with out query.
Different Rookies…
Colt Keith
Keith went 1-5 with a R, HR, 2RBI, Ok. The rookie is capping off a robust first season within the bigs, smashing 13 homers to date, whereas swiping 7 bases. The underlying figures for Keith or simply okay, however I count on them to take a step ahead subsequent yr. On the constructive aspect, Keith was league common in batted ball high quality (.369 xwOBA), and just about league common in Arduous-Hit% (35.4). Probably the most thrilling a part of Keith’s profile is that he mitigated strikeouts very effectively, solely punching out 19.7% of the time, a product of being close to league common in Whiff and Chase charges. That is the precise sort of profile that tends to get higher in yr two. Younger gamers which might be capable of flash recreation energy whereas nonetheless controlling the zone are likely to progress. Draft him in 2025.
Nolan Schanuel
Schanuel went 1-4 in one other mild day for the Angels lineup. Whereas the restricted energy from the nook spot is not very best, Schanuel has some attention-grabbing underlying figures which might be value mentioning. For starters, Schanuel has a number of the greatest plate self-discipline within the league. He’s ninetieth Percentile or higher in each Chase% and Whiff%, resulting in an insane 17/11.4 Ok/BB% ratio. His 89.3% Zone Contact is effectively above the MLB Common 82%. Schanuel’s contact talents are so good, that he has a 72.3% Chase Contact fee, in comparison with MLB common 57.8%. Despite the fact that he makes a ton of contact outdoors the zone, he nonetheless was capable of submit a 37.2% LA Candy Spot% (eightieth Percentile) and .258 xBA. He’s a SCREAMING purchase in dynasty and I will probably be taking with my final decide in virtually each draft in 2025.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Yamamoto was strong in simply his second begin again from the IL. He went 4 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 2BB, 3 Ok. He wanted 72 pitches. Yamamoto utilized a 5 pitch combine to work by way of a troublesome Braves lineup. He solely gathered a 24% CSW, however his velocity was up throughout a number of pitches. He has wonderful peripherals, and I am actually enthusiastic about him for 2025. Yamamoto is each a bat misser (29.1% Ok) and strike thrower (5.4% BB). He additionally will get tons of groundballs (48.5%). He is not excellent at limiting high quality of contact in opposition to (.368 xwOBACON, .369 MLB Common), however there are sufficient different facets to this profile for us to be excited. He’s at present solely 26 years previous and performs for probably the greatest groups in baseball. I need him in 2025.
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