Most specialists insisted that the St. Louis Cardinals would win the Nationwide League Central final yr. My history-based prediction system selected the Milwaukee Brewers. Hilarity ensued.
The Brewers received the division by 10 video games.
A brand new season awaits, and the pundits have anointed the Chicago Cubs because the probably NL Central champions in 2025. My formulation opts for the Brewers once more.
We’ll see.
My laptop program in contrast every workforce’s file through the previous three seasons (2022-2024) in opposition to the corresponding marks for 1,318 golf equipment from the free-agency period, which dates again to 1976.
The 2025 forecast for a specific workforce is decided by its 50 closest matches (CMs), the 50 golf equipment from the previous that had been most alike the present-day squad.
The important thing to my system is the following efficiency of every CM. The Minnesota Twins of 2007-2009, as an illustration, had been remarkably just like the Cubs of 2022-2024. So how did the Twins fare within the following season (2010)? They posted a sterling 94-68 file, a very good signal for Chicago’s ’25 squad.
However that’s just one match. The following-year data for all 50 CMs are what rely. One level is awarded for every workforce that surpassed .500, two extra factors for a playoff qualification, three further factors for a league pennant, and 4 additional factors for a world championship.
What does that depart us with? The Brewers on prime once more with 104 factors, and the Cubs a long way again with 71. Right here’s the expected order of end for the NL Central:
1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Pittsburgh Pirates
5. St. Louis Cardinals
The Pirates and Cardinals are tied with 32 factors apiece, however Pittsburgh wins the tiebreaker for fourth place. One in every of its 50 CMs received a league title, one thing that none of St. Louis’s matches may duplicate.
You’ll discover breakdowns for all 5 groups under. Every abstract begins with the membership’s 2025 prediction factors, adopted by its 2024 file, then the next-season outcomes for its 50 CMs. The ultimate line discloses the very closest match of all, adopted in parentheses by its file. (The following-year file for the closest CM usually varies from my general prediction. Don’t neglect that what really issues is the cumulative rating for all 50 CMs.)
A brand new installment will arrive in your e mail upon posting
2025 prediction factors: 104
2024 file: 93-69
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 6 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 20 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 34 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 1998 Mariners (76-85)
2025 prediction factors: 71
2024 file: 83-79
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 14 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 30 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2010 Twins (94-68)
2025 prediction factors: 58
2024 file: 77-85
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 8 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 18 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2020 Phillies (28-32)
2025 prediction factors: 32
2024 file: 76-86
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 7 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 15 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 1977 Cubs (81-81)
2025 prediction factors: 32
2024 file: 83-79
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 0 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 0 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 6 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 20 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2011 Mets (77-85)
