Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak spoke to members of the media in the present day, together with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Submit-Dispatch and Jeff Jones of the Belleville Information-Democrat, saying that commerce candidate Nolan Arenado is probably going staying put. “I feel the mindset proper now’s he’s doubtless going to be part of our membership at this level,” Mozeliak stated. “I undoubtedly really feel prefer it’s a greater likelihood than not” that he’s the membership’s Opening Day third baseman.
Given the occasions of current weeks, that’s not terribly shocking. It was reported a couple of month in the past that the membership’s efforts to maneuver Arenado had largely stalled, with the Crimson Sox being one of the best remaining touchdown spot, however even that match had some issues.
The Sox are making a giant funding of their infield, agreeing to a deal final night time with Alex Bregman. He’s reportedly going to play second base, so he doesn’t on his personal block Arenado from enjoying third at Fenway. Nonetheless, the match was already awkward with Rafael Devers at third. Transferring Devers to first after which buying and selling Triston Casas or Masataka Yoshida have been eventualities that have been bandied about this winter however they all the time appeared considerably of a troublesome tightrope to stroll.
These eventualities are technically nonetheless doable to think about in a vacuum however the bigger crew context makes it tougher to see. Bregman’s deal is reportedly for $120MM over three years, a $40MM common annual worth. Deferreals reportedly drop the online current worth nearer to $31.9MM yearly nevertheless it’s nonetheless an enormous chunk of the payroll. Arenado’s deal nonetheless has roughly three years and $60MM to be paid out, when factoring in deferrals and a few cash being picked up by the Rockies.
Boston making an enormous funding of their infield simply to create roster issues was already a bit powerful however is even more durable now with Bregman’s contract on the books. Chris Cotillo of MassLive in the present day estimates the percentages of Boston nonetheless being in on Arenado at “about 0.0%.”
Within the bigger context of the Cardinals’ offseason, it’s a really shocking place for them to be. By late September of final yr, earlier than the 2024 marketing campaign had even absolutely ended, experiences had emerged that the Cardinals have been planning a shift in course. 2025 was to be a type of reset yr, with the membership focusing much less on short-term competition and extra on long-term participant improvement. As a part of this shift, Mozeliak would spent the 2025 nonetheless in his POBO title whereas Chaim Bloom centered on overhauling the membership’s participant improvement system, however with Bloom to switch Mozeliak at season’s finish.
At that time, there was loads of hypothesis that the Playing cards would make gamers out there in the event that they have been costly or nearing free company. Arenado, Sonny Grey, Willson Contreras, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, Ryan Helsley and others appeared more likely to be out there.
Now, a number of months later, they’re all nonetheless on the roster. Contreras and Grey shortly signalled that they have been unwilling to waive their no-trade clauses whereas the membership surprisingly didn’t appear to have a lot curiosity in shifting Fedde or Helsley.
Arenado was reportedly extra prepared than Grey or Contreras to think about waiving his no-trade safety, however that didn’t imply he would approve any deal. There was some reporting that Arenado had an inventory of six groups that he would approve a commerce to, although there was additionally some pushback that such a agency listing existed and that Arenado’s preferences have been extra context-dependent.
He vetoed a deal to the Astros in December however reportedly wasn’t wholly against going to Houston. Fairly, he had some hesitation concerning the membership’s course after buying and selling Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Fairly than wait round and see if he would change his thoughts, the Astros took the less-complicated route of signing Christian Walker to play first base. That successfully locked Isaac Paredes, acquired within the Tucker deal, into third base and made an Arenado deal far much less doubtless.
Whereas Arenado could not have had an ironclad crew listing, it appears his parameters must widen for something to get carried out now. “I feel it must open up a bit bit extra,” Mozeliak stated of Arenado’s listing of acceptable groups, per Jones. “Suppose we’ve exhausted the others.”
Goold reported yesterday that Mozeliak had contacted 5 golf equipment that appeared to suit Arenado’s preferences, together with the Yankees, Crimson Sox, Padres and Dodgers. The Astros have been presumably the fifth. Goold added that the Yankees wished the Playing cards to eat extra of Arenado’s contract than they have been prepared to do. The Dodgers have Max Muncy at third and by no means appeared notably excited about making a change there. The Padres are working below vital monetary constraints. The Sox at the moment are out after including Bregman.
Maybe Arenado will change his thoughts and take into account different choices, given the circumstances. His precedence seems to be successful and that appears unlikely in St. Louis this yr with their reset plans. Reportedly, the Royals reached out to the Cardinals this winter however have been turned away for the reason that Playing cards didn’t assume Arenado was prepared to go there. Groups just like the Tigers and Blue Jays reportedly pursued Bregman and might need some willingness to pivot to Arenado, although Arenado may not be prepared to play for these golf equipment.
If Arenado does find yourself staying, it’s going to depart the Playing cards with some enjoying time puzzles to determine. Their considering with an Arenado commerce was to avoid wasting cash but additionally to provide extra enjoying time to guys with unsure futures. Nolan Gorman was going to get common run at third base as he seems to bounce again from a tricky season in 2024. With Arenado nonetheless round, he may get pushed again to second base. That would block Thomas Saggese and/or nudge Brendan Donovan right into a utility position the place he spends extra time within the outfield, maybe taking enjoying time from guys like Jordan Walker, Victor Scott II and others.
Maybe there are some twists and turns up forward nevertheless it’s been a really shocking winter for the Cardinals up to now, as an offseason that when more likely to contain vital adjustments has resulted in only a few. They haven’t but signed a free agent to a significant league deal and their solely commerce has been to amass depth infielder Michael Helman from the Twins.
